Portugal Super 8
The best picks for Fantasy Surfer from Surfer Magazine
Portugal is one of the most difficult events for predictions. Through the years it has always shown different conditions, and those changes reflects in a poor regularity amongst surfers.
John John and Jordy appear to be one of the most consistent picks. Another very consistent surfer, that ins't amongst the super 8 is Mick Fanning, you should consider him on your picks.
The super 8 is how our model could pick surfers without a salary cap limit. If playing the Fantasy Game this way, our model would have achieved 8,372 points, just few points above the first place. For sure, we're cheating.
Let's see the picks our model would pick as the best eight for Portugal.
John John Florence — $12,250,000
- Event Average Score: 13.55
- Event Winning Percentage: 64%
- FS average points: 142
JJF has been doing an amazing season. It was just unbelievable that he didn't took the lead earlier. His winning percentage this year is better than 2016. The momentum of the surfer is just great. Not only his winning percentage has been rising, his AHS has skyrocketed on this season.
In Portugal the surfer is one of the most consistent. It is difficult to find a surfer with better results than him. No one has a really strong past record in the venue.
Jordy Smith — $11,750,000
- Event Average Score: 13.44
- Event Winning Percentage: 63.16%
- FS average points: 124
Jordy is also doing an incredible season. His records at Portugal are almost tied with JJF, they have very close numbers.
Jordy's progression in Portugal is incredible. The surfers has been doing better over the years, this is a great fact to support him. Will we see another lead change?
Gabriel Medina — $11,000,000
- Event Average Score: 12.6
- Event Winning Percentage: 55.56%
- FS average points: 100
Medina doesn't have good past results at Portugal. His best year was back on 2012 when the reached semifinals, such result was never repeated by the surfer. However the surfer comes to the event with a great momentum, his past four results this season were, respectively: 2nd, 3rd, 13rd, 1st.
Medina has to deliver a great result at Portugal to stay in the title race. However, his past results at the venue are against him.
Adriano de Souza — $7,750,000
- Event Average Score: 11.72
- Event Winning Percentage: 60%
- FS average points: 113
Adriano has a good winning percentage at Portugal, but a low AHS. During the last five years the surfer has advanced rd3 three times, it is a consistent result.
Adriano also has a fun trend, the years he had advanced rd3 were all even. If the trend continues, we might see the surfer loosing rd3 this year.
Julian Wilson— $9,000,000
- Event Average Score: 13.38
- Event Winning Percentage: 60%
- FS average points: 118
Julian also has very close results to Jordy and JJF. During the last five years the surfer has reached quarter finals twice and was crowned champion once. There is, however a fact to be aware of, on 2014 and 2015 he didn't win a single heat at Portugal.
Owen Wright — $8,750,000
- Event Average Score: 13.37
- Event Winning Percentage: 44.44%
- FS average points: 83
Owen appears amongst our picks because of his season results. The surfer is in a great momentum, only twice this year he was out of rd4. At Portugal the surfer used to deliver solid results at the past, but his last appearance was a 25th.
Filipe Toledo — $7,500,000
- Event Average Score: 13.06
- Event Winning Percentage: 68.75%
- FS average points: 134
If he comes 100% recovered from his back injury at France, will be a great pick for the event. Toledo won Portugal at 2015 and has the best winning percentage at the venue. A very solid pick at this price.
