Rio super 8
The Australian leg was intense. Our model to play the Fantasy Surfer by Surfer Magazine is getting ready. At the moment we still ignore the $50M salary cap and make our projections as if it didn't exist.
How many points could you achieve ignoring the salary cap? Our model has made 2,827 points. Even by braking the rules we haven't reached the first position. FST model would be at 3rd right now. For us this result shows consistency. Our model is evolving.
The event now arrives at Brazil. This year in a different venue. The contest is going to happen at Saquarema (you can check how the top surfers perform at the venue here). However, our projections are going to be made based on the results of Postinho, Barra da Tijuca.
John John Florence — $12,500,000
- Event Average Score: 13.96
- Event Winning Percentage: 71.43%
- FS average points: 171
The best surfer at Rio. JJF has won the event 2 times during the last 5 years, he owns the best winning percentage and average FS points. His stats are growing this year. He has the best average heat score of the year: 16.91. Almost two points ahead the second place (Jordy Smith).
Filipe Toledo— $8,500,000
- Event Average Score: 14.74
- Event Winning Percentage: 70.59%
- FS average points: 140
The stats of Filipe Toledo in Rio are getting better year after year. Now he has the second best average heat score and winning percentage. Following his growing trend at the venue, he might jump to the first position in the two variables this year. We're all curious to see how he will perform at Saquarema.
Adriano de Souza — $8,750,000
- Event Average Score: 13.46
- Event Winning Percentage: 60.87%
- FS average points: 127
During the last 5 years Adriano has advanced 4 times to round4. Only Adriano and Bourez have that mark. His winning percentage and average FS points are solid. De Souza is a great pick for the game, specially if you picked him before Bells, when he was costing $7,500,00.
Gabriel Medina — $9,750,000
- Event Average Score: 14.86
- Event Winning Percentage: 55.56%
- FS average points: 103
Medina owns the best average heat score of Rio. It means that he knows how to manufacture scores there. However, the surfer does not have a high winning percentage. He has only won round3 two times over the last five events. If you pick him, be ready to see high scores, but don't get mad if he loses early.
Jordy Smith — $11,000,000
- Event Average Score: 13.95
- Event Winning Percentage: 63.16%
- FS average points: 121
Jordy is in a great momentum, for sure he will deliver good scores. He could have been in a better position amongst the super 8. However, the surfer has delivered poor results over the last two years at Rio. Probably he will break that mark this year and make solid result. We are all cheering for that.
Sebastian Ziets— $7,750,000
- Event Average Score: 12.42
- Event Winning Percentage: 53.33%
- FS average points: 103
Sebastian Ziets also lives a great career momentum. He joins the surfers that are growing numbers over the years, his stats prove that. His above the average performance and great momentum confirms him here.
Michel Bourez — $8,500,000
- Event Average Score: 10.88
- Event Winning Percentage: 52.17%
- FS average points: 137
Bourez, together with Adriano, has advanced four times to rd4 during the last five years. Every time you see a surfer with high average FS points, be sure that he knows how to advance heats on the venue. The fantasy rules give great reward for surfers that advance on heats.
Kelly Slater — $8,500,000
- Event Average Score: 12.89
- Event Winning Percentage: 57.14%
- FS average points: 120
You might expect to see Slater a lot here. Guess who was the guy right behind him in the ranks: Owen Wright. Kelly has a great consistency on almost all venues. However, he is in a descendent pattern, it might take some time until he gets off the super 8.
The super 8 total cost: $75,250,000
This is one of the higher super 8 costs so far. Just as a mater of curiosity, only three surfers have been on the super 8 on the four events of the year: John John, Adriano and Medina.
At the moment we are very close from having the projections ready for FS fantasy. We have written the first function to fit the salary cap, you can check it at the simulator. It is still a test, there are several strategies for choosing surfers we are experiencing some.
By Fidji we might have some official results, but have in mind that it will be better by the end of the year. We still lack price variation history, the more we have, the better it gets. As we started predicting this year, we only have 3 events to compare. The projections are getting better!
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