Survivor Football Island Week 1: Outwit, Outpick, Outlast
Editor’s Note: This is the second year of a weekly series focusing on Survivor Football pools (with some gambling too). The details are all be covered below, but the three of us responsible for the content hope you enjoy.
Here We Go Again (Shane)
Believe it or not, it’s time for football! I’ve enjoyed that whole “Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles” thing, but the 2018 NFL season is upon us and so is another season of Survivor (Football) Island.
I’m still as into survivor pools as ever, even if both my tickets were out by Week 5 last year (thanks again for throwing those 5 interceptions against the Jaguars, Big Ben). I’m also still sticking to my main strategy point: eliminate the variables. Home teams rule the day for me, as do non-divisional games, team momentum, normal-weather games, and healthy players. I’m keeping things as standard as possible and eliminating any of those predictable variables that I can until at the end of it all, I go with my gut. It may not be your strategy but it’s a strategy that works for me and that’s what counts.
In addition to Survivor advice from Drew and myself this year, we’re adding a tidbit on NFL bets. Most of the time, these bets cover similar lines of Survivor Pool thinking, and there’s nothing wrong with putting a little money on an NFL Sunday. For that piece, we’ll be welcoming Jake Stehman who will offer his weekly thoughts. His first bit will follow Drew’s advice so be sure to check it out!
Week 1 (Shane)
Ah, Week 1. In a Survivor pool, it’s essential to remember that you’re playing against everyone else. Sure, you can pick the heavy-favorites every week, but in my opinion, you have to separate yourself and take a mild gamble every once in a while. You can certainly opt for the strategy of using all your good teams straight out of the gate and then holding on for dear life in the later weeks, or you can be a little more risky and know that the longer you last, the greater your odds will be as most people will scrambling to find the good teams left.
Having said that, Week 1 is simple for me: survive and advance. This will always be the toughest week to pick as there are question marks abound. Which teams are contenders? Which teams are pretenders? Which teams are in-between? I usually don’t advocate for going with the crowd, but you might have to make an exception for Week 1 and take the safer picks until you get a feel for the league. There’s no sense in gambling out of the gate to be knocked out and have to wait another year. Of course, sometimes you run into situations like last year when a third of your pool takes Houston vs. Jacksonville and gets knocked out…but I digress.
There are a couple of teams with bigger spreads to consider here: Pittsburgh (at Cleveland), Minnesota (vs. San Francisco), Baltimore (vs. Buffalo), New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay), New England (vs. Houston), Green Bay (vs. Chicago), Los Angeles (at Oakland), and Detroit (vs. New York Jets).
I can already tell you I’m avoiding Pittsburgh, who struggled and needed overtime vs. Cleveland in their last matchup, and New England, who only beat the Deshaun Watson-led Texans by 3 at home last year and needed a late score to do so. I’m also not considering Baltimore this week because they’ve been a mystery the last few years and who knows what to expect from Nathan Peterman behind center for the Bills. Lastly, I’m not picking Green Bay as they face a much-improved Bears team in a Week 1 divisional clash. That leaves us with a few options:
- Minnesota (vs. San Francisco): Minnesota proved to be a very good football team last year, and I expect more of the same this year. Jimmy Garoppolo has been handed the reigns in San Francisco, and I’m not a fan of that variable and not knowing what to expect. Jerick McKinnon is out for the year, but I don’t expect a huge drop off to the duo of Alfred Morris and Matt Breida. Considering all of that, I expect Minnesota to come out fired up after the drubbing to end their season in Philadelphia. It’s Kirk Cousins’ debut and asking Garoppolo to start on the road against arguably the toughest defense in the league is a tall order. Confidence: 9/10
- New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay): a Week 1 NFC South matchup. Normally, I advocate against these, but this is an exception. The Saints are nearly a 10-point favorite and why not? Jameis Winston is suspended, the Bucs went 5–11 last year, and the Saints were one play away from advancing to the NFC Championship game. The Saints have too many weapons on offense and are such a good team at home. Yes, they’re 0–4 in their last 4 season openers, but this is the year that changes. Confidence: 9/10
- Detroit (vs. New York Jets): the first of two Monday Night games. While preseason football is preseason football, the Lions haven’t looked that great. You know what you’re going to get out of Matt Stafford and the offense, but the defense is a real concern. It’s the debut for Sam Darnold and while a road test would normally prove too much, I’m not so sure that’s the case here. Darnold has shown some real ability and athleticism in the preseason and the Lions defense might just be bad enough to let him get comfortable and find a rhythm early. I don’t feel great about this matchup. Confidence: 3/10
- Los Angeles (at Oakland): I’d normally never consider an away team, but Los Angeles gets a pass here. Yes, it’s an intrastate matchup. Yes, it’s on Monday Night football. Lots of variables that go against everything my pick strategy stands for, and yet I feel like this game could be a blowout. Oakland just traded away their best defensive player and will struggle to get any kind of pressure on defense. Meanwhile, the Rams had an elite defense last year and have upgraded from Sammy Watkins to Brandin Cooks while returning all of their playmakers. I feel good about the Rams.. Confidence: 8/10
The Verdict (Shane)
I’m really picking between the Vikings, Saints, and Rams here. Realistically, so is probably everyone else in your pool. I maintain for the first week that’s ok- you’re just trying to survive and advance until you can get a feel on some of these teams.
If we get nitpicky, the Rams are on the road and on Monday Night and I’m not in love with either of those factors. The Vikings are introducing a new quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, and playing against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Saints are trending in the right direction and hungry to build off last year’s 11–5 mark that had a disappointing finish. Survive and advance…give me the Saints.
And…We Back (Drew)
Welcome back to another season of Survivor Island! This was started during the season the Eagles of course won the Super Bowl, so we basically have to keep this going forever, right?
Along with thoughts from Shane and I, I’m excited for Jake to be providing some gambling advice to the column as well.
Let me build off Shane’s strong opening by saying that I think his Saints pick is a good one. Usually around the first week of August, I begin really studying the Week 1 games, and I thought forever the Saints were going to be my pick. They were 7–1 at the Superdome last year, and the Bucs enter with a backup quarterback. I’m no Jameis Winston fan, but he in theory would give them a much better chance to pull the upset than Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Thankfully my pick isn’t the Saints though. It would have been a pretty boring first week of this column if Shane and I both took the same team, right? That’s not why I had a change of heart though; it’s just a beneficial byproduct.
It’s also nothing the Saints did. It’s who they play in Week 2. A home game against the Cleveland Browns.
Did Sean Payton pay off the NFL schedule makers? I kid, I kid, but talk about a nice first two games on paper.
Obviously the goal of Survivor Football is to survive. Any other tangential strategies don’t work if your pick doesn’t win, but when I looked back and studied some of my early picks from past seasons, I felt as if I didn’t put enough emphasis on future value of teams.
If you can find another option you feel good about, I think it’s worth assessing the risk and considering.
Potential Options (Drew)
Green Bay — This was a much more attractive pick before the Bears acquired Khalil Mack, but I still believe it’s a decent one. Matt Nagy’s offense should take a few games at least to gel, and I expect Aaron Rodgers to be back with a vengeance.
Minnesota & Detroit — I group these together because I don’t love either, but I understand if you do. Both teams are big home favorites, but it would not surprise me if Jimmy Garoppolo against the Vikings and Sam Darnold in his first start for the Jets make these games.
My Pick (Drew)
The Baltimore Ravens.
To be clear, I don’t expect the Ravens to be very good this season. I have them going 7–9, and will personally be rooting against them in a lot of games since the Eagles own their second round pick. (Sorry Ravens fans friends, nothing personal, just business).
The Ravens should be good enough to win on Sunday though in a home game against the Bills and quarterback Nathan Peterman, who might be best known for tossing five interceptions in his first start last season. The Ravens have won their past two season openers, including one over Buffalo in 2016.
Looking at their schedule down the line, the only other game I could envision using them is when they host the Browns, and that’s not until Week 17, when most pools are over.
Could I be outsmarting myself? Perhaps, but sometimes that’s what it takes to get an edge in pools.
Take the Ravens
Now for the Fun Part (Jake)
Like Shane and Drew, I love diving into survival pools when the NFL season starts. It makes Sunday that much more interesting and adds some extra excitement and possibly anxiety to each game. However, a survival pool can take weeks to eliminate even the below average fan and fantasy football is a marathon not a sprint. This is where the weekly spreads come in for all those 100-meter dash football fans like me. If you are going to play a few of the picks above in your survival pools why not add a little spice? We have a few of the spreads below (for entertainment sake of course) with an extra parlay for the road.
Safe Bet:
San Francisco at Minnesota (-6.0)
Do not get caught up in the Jimmy G hype in Week 1. Yes, the Niners will be better this year with him under center but Minnesota is a legit Super Bowl contender and will win this by a touchdown or more.
Confidence Meter: 9/10
Breaking my Double-Digit Rule:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5)
Give me the Saints and Drew Brees against a backup quarterback in the dome. I believe this may get to double digits so grab it at -9.5 if you can but for this game without Winston I will break my own rule even if it gets to 10. Saints score early and often and cover the points.
Confidence Meter: 7/10
Risky Reward:
Kansas City (+155) at LA Chargers
If you are trying to spice things up a little why not do it with Andy Reid and first time starting QB on the road? Is it risky? A little. However, Kansas City will pack a punch with Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyrek Hill and they have not lost to LA since 2013. Take the money line and the Chiefs on the road.
Confidence Meter: 5/10
A parlay for the road
If you are looking to kick it up a notch and run a parlay for Week 1 consider taking Detroit and Carolina. The Lions are playing a rookie QB at home and the Cowboys are beat up on the offensive line. I will take the veteran QB in prime time and one of the best front sevens in football to cover and end the week on a high note.
Detroit -7.0 and Carolina -3.0
Confidence Meter: 4/10
- all numbers reflect spreads from Wednesday at noon


