Climate Isn’t the Only Thing That’s Changing
Get Ready for a Brave New World.
Hot Spots Today
Look at the International News on any given day; the lead stories are about a world in motion. There are conflicts and crises in Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, and China. Climate Change costs billions in weather-related damage and crop failures while forcing unwanted global migrations. Threats to democracy are spreading with the rise in Authoritarianism as money and power continue to consolidate globally.
Domestically, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is exploding on the economic and social scene, posing threats to jobs and rights to intellectual property. Organized labor has its way in a healthy economy trying to close the income inequality gap. Crime and Racism persist in an already strained social fabric. An already challenged Health Policy continues from one pandemic in anticipation of the next. The news reports these as discrete events, but it is more likely that many are interrelated — snowballing effect.
It is no wonder that these events set us on edge because their resolution means things must change. Stress and anxiety are high and take our coping skills to their limit. An increasing political shift to the right seems natural as a consequence of fearing change. Can you remember any time in your life when so many serious problems existed simultaneously?
The Last Time We Had So Much Going On
It would help if you went back well before our time to the end of the Gilded Age and the start of World War I (WWI) through World War II (WWII). Back then, you would witness similar bouts of political, economic, and social upheaval on a global scale.
Few, if any, of us today were around to witness the explosive growth in American wealth at the turn of the 20th Century. History books give us some of the essential facts of the time. We fed the European war machine and eventually added U.S. soldiers to the cause during WWI. The Roaring 20s turned into the Great Depression in the 1930s. WWI German reparations and the neglected masses in Europe led to political upheaval and Authoritarian and Fascist political gains. It shook the American social, economic, and political establishment to its core. While history books capture the facts surrounding significant events, they neglect the thought processes and individual responses to events of average persons involved.
My grandparents and parents would describe their personal experiences and sacrifices during this period. They were working for starvation wages for long hours in terrible working conditions in Europe, hoping for a better life here. Our last name is “Anglicized” in hopes of avoiding discrimination. Unfortunately, while jobs were plentiful, the working conditions weren’t excellent. The suffering from the strikes to help organize labor in manufacturing and commercial transportation was crushing for many.
Despite it all, my forebearers and the local communities they formed share important common beliefs about themselves and the people around them. They taught the value of truth, honesty, love, empathy, equity, learning, focus, tolerance, respect, and more. While these qualities generally apply to all within our local community, they only sometimes extend into the larger urban setting. These lessons were often hands-on and practical — and very much needed to help navigate in the larger context of what we call the American Melting Pot.
Common external threats and the potential for adversity unite people with diverse backgrounds and shared beliefs. My family wasn’t wealthy, but we shared qualities found in the American Character and the American Dream. My grandparents and parents did their best to pass it on to the next generation. I grew up in a blue-collar, semi-urban neighborhood. My high school consisted of old and new immigrant families — Italians, Poles, some Irish, and a growing Syrian and Lebanese Muslim community. Our parents made decent wages working in the local factories, and remarkably, we all got along pretty well. Our community did not suffer from acute poverty or display conspicuous wealth. Christian and Muslim families managed to work and learn together — side by side. We shared the American Character and the Dream.
The First Modern Existential Threat — WWII
The people in our community had a shared vision reflected in the attitudes and actions of most during WWII. I had several uncles who went off to war and others, including my dad, who stayed home to build tanks and other equipment for the war effort. Those at home had ration coupons for almost everything required for the war effort. Not having goods immediately on the shelf and available to buy requires a significant lifestyle change. It required choices and sacrifice.
The entire country chose to make sacrifices to change the direction in which the world was heading. WWI cost the lives of American soldiers but wasn’t necessarily a threat to American soil. WWII was an existential threat that united us because it could easily have spread to American soil. It took a threat from a shared concern to something personal: fear for yourself, your livelihood, and your loved ones.
Seventy-five years and several generations later, we are still going to war or preparing for one. Since WWII, none of our recent military engagements have risen to existential threats; most would be considered more like policing actions protecting our economic “interests.”
During all these decades, we have managed to keep much of the devastation of war off American soil, our military-industrial complex busy, and military service became largely voluntary. Other than the military personnel directly involved, the level of sacrifice required by the general population is nominal. We have even managed to fund many of these military actions by adding to our public debt, thus leaving our domestic economy, lifestyles, and tax structure largely unscathed.
The future is unsettling as I listen to today’s political, social, and economic discourse. Talk of American Character and the American Dream exists but with different levels of enthusiasm and conviction. It has been a long time since our country asked us to make personal sacrifices that could disrupt our lives.
In the face of a new existential threat, are we, as a country, prepared to accept sacrifices to our current social and economic well-being? Few recent generations have had to make choices like these. Frankly, I worry they are unprepared.
Do we have the will to hold on to our beliefs about our collective future and our political heritage of Freedom and Democracy? Do we really understand the potential consequences as our national character changes? Do enough of us even care? These are critical questions for everyone.
One author, in particular, thinks radical changes have been in motion for quite a while and not necessarily for the better.
Enter the Brave New World
Aldous Huxley wrote a fascinating fictional book describing the future of Western Europe and America during our last existential threat — WWII. He wrote Brave New World * in 1932 from the perspective that the Allied Forces lost the war. He later wrote Brave New World Revisited *in 1958 to share his thoughts about our post-war direction and the “red flags” posted along the way.
Brave New World is a cautionary tale describing the lives and events of a group of people in a society that has evolved after multiple generations of technology-driven change. Here, freedom and democracy are no longer. A tightly controlled global population optimizes social and economic objectives within ten prominent political authorities worldwide that function alike.
A Controller manages each with a coordinated totalitarian rule. They aim to maintain order and support its administration by pacifying the population using advanced genetics and social engineering technology. They offer “peace and pleasure” as proxies for “happiness.” It is a more enlightened approach to the pain and suffering used in achieving compliance and control of the general population during WWII by the Axis powers. Regardless of the methods, they come at a tremendous personal cost to most.
In Brave New World Revisited, written a quarter century later, Huxley details his thoughts on the conditions and actions required to reach this Brave New World and the social and political choices made along the way. He cites two compelling conditions that drive us towards a new and decidedly different society from what we live in today: Over-population and Over-organization.
Over-Population
Huxley was one of many writers, scientists, and economists of his time who expressed great concern regarding the growth of the global population. When he wrote Brave New World in 1932, global population estimates were 2.09 billion. By 1958, the global population estimate increased to 2.92 billion. He was very concerned about the growth. Technological advances serve as a significant contributor to accelerating population growth in the future.
Today, the population estimate for 2023 is approaching 8.1 billion**. To Huxley, this would be unimaginable and unsustainable. His concern, along with many others, is the lack of adequate food to meet the needs of such a large population and the excessive energy and mineral consumption required to accommodate such growth. Political-social upheaval, including forced migrations, follows economic instability as the globe runs low on resources.
He acknowledged the effectiveness of the birth control side of the equation to help manage the global population. However, he believes that death control also needs to be addressed adequately. Each year, we experience about 122 million** births globally. We also experience 55 million** deaths from many different causes. The net global population consistently grows by about 67 million** every year.
It’s like populating a whole new country the size of the United States for the globe to absorb every five years. It means a lot of additional mouths to feed, clothe, educate, and gainfully employ. Huxley points out that death control is rarely practiced and often condemned, leaving science and technology advances to bear the burden of having to vastly increase food production, energy, and medicines to try and sustain the population.
While it may seem insensitive, Huxley points out that achieving long-term sustainability for humanity requires the global population to stabilize at a level balanced with Earth’s resources and technological adoption. What happens if science and technology cannot keep pace with the population size? What if geopolitical interests slow adoption to meet other “interests”? Current democratic social and political institutions strongly believe in preserving human life. Making choices that reduce the global population to achieve balance is extremely difficult.
Genetic engineering is an area that Huxley considers ripe for abuse as a social engineering tool. Here, there is an opportunity for those in control to manipulate genetic material in the lab to grow homogenous future populations to a fixed size. Within these controlled conditions, mental acuity is reduced among specific population segments to limit aspirations for higher social mobility and acceptance of a caste system within society. Science at its best or worst?
When Huxley wrote Brave New World Revisited, he was unaware of the threat of climate change. If he had access to the data and outcomes over the last 65 years, he would likely have considered it an affirmation of his vision for the future. He might have seen the link that over-population causes climate change and global warming, which is the catalyst for future food insecurity, energy and mineral resource supply shortages, economic instability, massive human migrations, and political unrest — the snowballing effect.
From his perspective, climate change is Nature’s response to achieving a balance in the global population. Suppose humanity cannot advance the appropriate science and technologies in an orderly fashion to keep the worldwide population in balance. In that case, Nature will do it for us.
Over-Organization
Huxley refers to over-organization as the bureaucratic process of concentrating power in the hands of relatively few to control the many — minimizing dissent as a distraction. His experiences surrounding WWI and WWII have demonstrated that dictators are far less sensitive to the cost of human casualties. They also demonstrate their capability to promote and protect elite segments of the population based on their utility to the state.
Huxley rails against big government and big business. Collectively, the power to force change becomes concentrated in relatively few hands. He believes authoritarian rule becomes inevitable.
When segments of the population feel socially and economically marginalized, no country is immune from adopting a highly conservative approach to governance in response to change. In times of crisis, martial law or its equivalent is often invoked and, once done, rarely relinquished peacefully.
For example, the strengths of our American character applied during our existential threat during WWII, and the United States and its Allies rejected the continuation of concentration of power after WWII. The dictatorships that occurred in Japan, Germany, and Italy were introduced to democracy and freedom as an alternative to authoritarian rule and thrived under freedom and democracy.
Many would point toward Capitalism, alongside freedom and democracy, as the underlying source of success. Capitalism drives countries towards economic prosperity, resulting in freedom and democracy, but not necessarily. Capitalism, as an economic system, has served us well. It has also served the authoritarian political systems very well. It is unparalleled as the best tool for reallocating resources globally but demands greater consumption of resources. But who does it serve, and who benefits in the long run? Like advanced technologies, AI, Quantum Computing, Robotics, and others, it needs guardrails that protect the population from potential abuse.
Are We on The Path?
Climate change as our new existential threat is just as significant as the ones experienced at the beginning of the 20th Century. This time, it is truly global in scope and developing slower, making its impact and resulting consequences less evident to many. Sadly, it makes it much more complex and time-consuming to correct. Scientists have recognized climate change as a significant threat for the last thirty years. Time is a critical factor in providing and correcting courses of action.
We measure time as a quantitative measure sequentially called Chronos. The ancient Greeks also measured time qualitatively, calling it Kairos — In God’s or Nature’s time. For example, a doctor’s response might be that healing takes six weeks. Chronos is used to measure time. However, if the doctor, it will recover when conditions are ready — Kairos time is applied. Nature and circumstances dictate time.
We forecast the speed at which climate change occurs using Chronos time measured in average increases in global temperature from a base period. We observe these outcomes mainly through changes in weather patterns and surface heat. We use computer models to predict the speed of future temperature changes.
We can quantify the physical damage to property and life. The resulting psychological changes to our social and political systems as they evolve in response to climate change, not so much — but these changes are real and lasting.
Nature dictates the speed and form at which climate conditions stabilize or, better yet, reverse and determine their pace in Kairos time. Any potential for human control of the process is lost. The environment, when stabilized, may not be anything we would recognize today. Further, the resulting changes to our social, political, and economic systems that have evolved from the threat would likely meet the same type of inertia to change, even if climate conditions do improve. If freedom and democracy are lost in this process, can it ever return?
Huxley believes that a great deal of social engineering takes place as big government and big business shape the future of this new world he created. It gives rise to deploying new forms of propaganda, recreational drugs, and other psychological tools used to control the masses.
The internet, social media, smartphones, artificial intelligence, and robotics are technologies Huxley would wonder about. Given his dystopian perspective on the future, he would see these as valuable tools for big government and big business to create alternative realities for the masses to gain and maintain control.
From a technological perspective, we are doing many things to reduce emissions and stabilize the climate. We are witnessing many of the effects and costs of climate change — primarily from storm damage. Heat is making once-arable land into a desert. As a result, forced migration of global populations is occurring. In the face of these threats, political sentiment is becoming more conservative as the side effects of climate change grow. These conditions parallel the Huxley proposition of the impact of over-population and over-organization.
The leadership of large technology companies is warning us of the potential for AI and robotics to displace many in the labor force. The process of automation has been in motion for decades in manufacturing industries. With these new advances, displacements will occur in many more sectors of the economy. With the value and utility of human labor diminishing, Huxley’s concern about managing the size of the human population comes to the forefront once more.
If the pain from climate change becomes too great, the twisted logic leading to Huxley’s dystopian worldview could quickly become an option. Those in power and the privileged may see future opportunities to continue to live a carbon-rich life by accelerating the advancement of AI and robots to substitute for human labor. Then, reduce the global population and, in turn, reduce the demand for energy, food, and arable land to achieve a balance. It may seem absurd to us today. It probably did to those living in Eastern Europe before WWII, too.
Many would agree that we are standing on the threshold of a new world order. But does it have to be the dystopian version offered by Huxley? We still have choices.
Huxley believes that better education and the ability to discern the truth among the alternative realities offered are critical to altering the path away from his dystopian nightmare. A more critical examination of the character of individuals chosen to lead our country and shape our future economy is essential. However, real effort is required on our part to do so. Are our politicians part of the problem or the solution? Are they a reflection of our character used as our guide in making these choices?
Character strengths are primary filters when assessing our environment as we discern what actions to take. Things like honesty, kindness, perseverance, bravery, judgment, humility, love, spirituality, and more are qualities that lead to truth and happiness. They allow us to make well-grounded choices and have greater confidence in our elected leadership to understand the consequences. Character strengths drive us towards better educating ourselves on what impacts our future and allow us to gain valuable wisdom to share and reach consensus, especially on global issues.
Huxley’s portrayal of the future is fictional. However, he is projecting from his human experiences living through WWII — our last existential threat. We can learn from these meaningful similarities and lessons. Or — are these lessons lost to history?
If you think we are on the path, a response starts with us today — not a week, a month, a year, or a decade, as some would like us to believe. Re-examine your character development and spiritual positions as you help choose humanity’s potential outcomes as we move forward — before it is too late.
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Sources
[1] * Aldous Huxley, and Christopher Hitchens. Brave New World and Brave New World Revisited Notes. 1932. New York [U.A.] Harper Perennial, 2005.
[2] **Worldometer. “World Population by Year — Worldometers.” Worldometers.info, 2023, www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/.
