The promise of a blue Virginia
Democrats won big. Here’s how we helped and what it means for 2020.
After 26 years, Virginia is finally blue. In Tuesday’s election, Democrats gained control of both chambers of the General Assembly, winning at least 21 of 40 seats in the state Senate and 53 of 100 seats in the House of Delegates (as of writing, some races are still too close to call).
These new majorities make Virginia the nation’s 15th Democratic trifecta, wherein Democrats have unified control of the governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers. From raising the minimum wage to adopting automatic voter registration to passing gun violence prevention measures, this victory will set a host of progressive policies in motion. Furthermore, a pro-democracy majority will now control the redistricting process in 2021, ensuring fair maps for the next decade in Virginia.
Let’s take a look at where we were leading up to Election Day, how we arrived at a blue Virginia, and where we go from here:
The Stakes in the Commonwealth
Both of Virginia’s U.S. senators, most of its congressional delegation, and all three statewide officers are Democrats. But in the eight years since the Virginia GOP last drew new electoral maps, partisan and racial gerrymandering — along with chronic underinvestment in state races — have hindered Democrats’ ability to make gains in the General Assembly. Those distorted maps allowed GOP lawmakers to maintain unfair majorities in the House of Delegates and state Senate, which they used to block progressive policies and pass restrictive voting laws. That is, until November 5th.
Redistricting loomed large in Virginia’s 2019 election. In February, a federal court approved a new House of Delegates map to replace the racially gerrymandered map GOP lawmakers drew in 2011. The Virginia GOP — in a blatant attempt to preserve unconstitutional maps — appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, but the appeal was denied in June. This much was clear: six traditionally safe GOP districts would become competitive in Virginia’s 2019 elections.
On Tuesday, for the first time in years, Virginians voted under a fair House of Delegates map. With these new maps in place, Democrats handily took control of the House. Democrats also flipped the state Senate and subsequently won control of the entire General Assembly for the first time in a generation.
Bringing grassroots energy down-ballot in Virginia
Flipping the Virginia General Assembly was Swing Left and Flippable’s first program as a combined organization since joining forces in May. Together, we mobilized a community of over one million volunteers, donors, and activists, shifting gears after 2018 to focus on a single goal in 2019: electing a pro-democracy majority in Virginia.
For Flippable, this mission began in 2017 when eight of our candidates were elected to the House of Delegates, contributing to a total of 15 red-to-blue flips in the chamber. These 2017 wins were a testament to the monumental power of grassroots groups and a telling first response to the Trump presidency. But it wasn’t the end — we knew that in 2019, Democrats could finish the job in Virginia.
Our Impact
Leveraging Flippable’s state-level expertise, Swing Left adopted 20 target districts in the General Assembly across three key geographies: Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. Analyzing the vote share in past presidential and statewide contests as well as the margins of victory in recent state legislative elections, we identified nine offensive targets in the House of Delegates and five in the state Senate.
These districts all showed strong Democratic promise, but not a Democratic guarantee. Winning these seats would depend on high voter turnout in an “off-off-year” election with no statewide or federal race at the top of the ballot. And these campaigns delivered, helping to drive turnout numbers close to those in Virginia’s 2017 elections within the districts we targeted. To protect the path to a majority, we also supported six candidates running to defend House of Delegates seats that flipped blue in 2017. Of these 20 targets, we won all six Democratic holds and flipped eight seats across both chambers, bringing our Election Night total to 14 candidate victories.
Flippable and Swing Left raised over $863,000 for our Virginia candidates, making us one of the largest grassroots funders of candidates in the election. By both providing early money and zeroing in on high-priority races in October, we helped our candidates start and finish strong. In the end, 89% of our dollars raised went to races decided by single-digit margins and 72% went to races decided by 5% or less. By keeping an eye on our candidates’ fundraising reports — and an ear to our partners on the ground — we were able to adapt our fundraising model throughout the cycle, ensuring that donations went to the highest-impact campaigns at every stage.
All told, Swing Left volunteers from across the country wrote over 229,000 letters to help turn out Virginia voters, with 76% of letters sent to voters in districts decided by single-digit margins. Powered by Vote Forward, these volunteers surpassed our goal of 150,000 letters written for this election. Our volunteers also made over 39,000 phone calls to Virginia voters and knocked on over 88,000 doors. From neighbors to college students to teams who made the trip from Washington, D.C. and New York City (with the help of Sister District!) these volunteers helped execute an ambitious ground game in high-stakes districts across the Commonwealth.
Change is coming to Richmond
With Tuesday’s election, Democrats are prepared to bring profound changes to the General Assembly, and this is already reflected in continued wins for representation. In District 10, Senator-elect Ghazala Hashmi will become the first Muslim American woman to serve in the Virginia General Assembly.
Senator-elect Hashmi’s election builds upon Virginia’s historic firsts in 2017. That year, Delegate Danica Roem became the first openly transgender lawmaker to serve Virginia. Delegates Kathy Tran and Kelly Convirs-Fowler became the first Asian American women elected to Virginia state government. And Delegates Elizabeth Guzman and Hala Ayala made history as the first Hispanic women elected to the Virginia House of Delegates.
With a Democratic majority in place, our candidates’ visions for a stronger Virginia can come to fruition. Here are some of the policy areas to watch in the year ahead:
- Election reforms: Virginia elections are plagued by undemocratic policies designed to keep voters from the polls: early voter registration deadlines, no early voting, excuse-only absentee voting, and a restrictive voter ID law, which the GOP passed in 2013. In the upcoming session, Democrats can use their majority to expand access to the ballot box and implement an independent redistricting commission to draw fair maps.
- Gun violence prevention: Less than two months after a mass shooting took 12 lives in Virginia Beach on May 31st, the Virginia GOP adjourned a special session on gun violence prevention without holding a single vote. Many of our candidates were propelled into office in part due to their strong stance on common-sense reforms. Now, they’ll have the opportunity to take action and bring life-saving policies like red flag laws, universal background checks, and safe storage requirements to Virginia.
- Equal Rights Amendment: This year, Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy led the push to make Virginia the 38th state to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment and guarantee gender equality under the U.S. Constitution. Thanks to the work of ERA advocates, the measure garnered the support of 80% of voters statewide and was approved by the state Senate. When it went to the House, just one GOP delegate sided with 49 Democrats and the ERA died on an even 50–50 split. A Democratic-led House of Delegates gives the Equal Rights Amendment renewed hope.
- Environmental protections: In the 2019 legislative session, Democrat-sponsored climate bills were routinely killed in majority-GOP subcommittees, leaving bold solutions to severe flooding, carbon emissions, and pollution off the table. Tuesday’s election put an end to GOP inaction on the climate crisis and paves the way for Democratic bills to become law in the upcoming session.
- LGBTQ non-discrimination laws: Virginia state law doesn’t protect LGBTQ people from being unfairly fired, not hired, or discriminated against in the workplace. Virginia also lacks protections against housing discrimination, meaning LGBTQ people can be unfairly evicted or denied housing. This new Democratic majority can change that.
What’s next?
Just as the 15 House of Delegate red-to-blue flips in 2017 foreshadowed the blue wave in 2018, Democrats’ showing in Virginia can serve as a preview of what’s to come in 2020. But we can’t take it for granted that momentum alone will power critical state chamber flips, congressional and Senate wins, and a presidential victory.
Virginia shows what we can accomplish when we invest, organize, and work strategically in competitive races — especially at the state level. Remember: this was an off-off-year election without a statewide race at the top of the ticket to inform voters and drive higher turnout. That, combined with the fact that Virginia is the second-hardest state to vote in due to the aforementioned anti-democratic policies, made our work all the more pressing. We had to be smart: so we directed funds to races where each dollar would have the biggest impact on candidates’ campaigns, and we mobilized Swing Left volunteers in districts where each volunteer hour would contribute to turning out the voters most likely to help flip the General Assembly.
We can and must do this at a greater scale in 2020. Our Super State Strategy lays out 11 targets where we’ll fundraise, organize, and volunteer to win key electoral battles in the states, Congress, and White House. The path to victory is clear: investing early in critical races, rallying around voter registration efforts, and turning out as many voters as possible in the final stretch.
Virginia is only the beginning.
