David Perdue’s Weakness Is All Speculation
The State of the State
Until 2018, it was Texas — not Georgia — that Democrats hoped to pull away from the Republican firewall. A 5 point 2016 margin for Trump in Georgia, the slimmest for a Republican in modern history, changed that narrative. Further enticing Democrats, the President is +1 in Georgia but with a smattering of polls showing him in a worse position. Increasing interest even more, with Senator Isakson’s retirement, both of Georgia’s senate seats are up in 2020.
Demographic trends help to explain why Democrats are surging in the state. Foremost, Atlanta is rapidly growing. Following national trends, the Atlanta suburbs have also been trending more liberal. In 2018 the suburban 6th district flipped to the Democrats. Republicans also came within almost 400 votes of losing the 7th district. The governor’s race was also decided by 2 points. Now, Governor Brian Kemp was likely hurt by controversy that he was using the powers of his office as Georgia Secretary of State to prevent Democrats from voting. Of course, this cuts both ways, and his policies may have unfairly helped him. Given the ambiguous results of the Governor’s election, the trends in the House and the two Senate elections, Georgia is being looked at as one of the most important battleground states of 2020.
The Numbers
There are no polls on a head-to-head matchup between David Perdue and potential Democratic challengers or even between potential challengers. However, his competition has been slow to form. Stacy Abrams, who ran against Brian Kemp for Governor in 2018, has chosen not to run after being hailed as the strongest competitor. Another powerful Democrat, Matt Lieberman, has decided to run for Isakson’s open seat. Regardless of the competitor, David Perdue enjoys a commanding net 22 point positive approval.
Don’t Trust Polls?
Given the dearth of polls, the case for Georgia being a swing-state and David Perdue’s associated vulnerability are based on hearsay. Even if Georgia is becoming purple, David Perdue is still extremely popular. More, 2018 may have represented something close to a ceiling for Democrats in the near-term in the state. Georgia is still somewhat rural. Georgia also has even voter registration by party which correlates with being a more Conservative state. Similar to other Southern states, Georgia also has a large Evangelical population at 38%. None of these underlying factors bode well for Democrats. The Perdue family is also somewhat of a household name in Georgia. David Perdue’s cousin Sonny Perdue was the first Republican Governor of Georgia since Reconstruction.
Conclusion
The 2020 Georgia elections have very little in the way of polls. However, the Democratic field lacks a clear front-runner and the addition of Isakson’s open seat may actually dilute talent as Georgia Democrats fail to focus on one race. David Perdue is also broadly popular while Trump is slightly in the positive. While demographics are changing in Georgia, it is unclear where Democrats could reach a margin to beat David Perdue in 2020. At this point in time this race looks Solid Republican. While this piece is about David Perdue, the open seat can be rated off of his position. With the lack of an incumbent and a somewhat strong Democrat in the race, the open seat appears Likely Republican.
