Doug Jones Probably Won’t Repeat 2017
The State of the State
Alabama isn’t in the Deep South — it is the Deep South. According to Morning Consult, the President enjoys his highest popularity in the entire nation in Alabama at +22. In Mississippi, his approval sits one point lower and in Louisiana it is a relatively cool +15. In 2016, Hillary received 34% of the vote, concentrated in the very Democratic-leaning central band of the state. In 2018 the house results were almost identical in Alabama to 2016. Democrats did outperform by a few points in the 2nd and 5th district but the result was still over 60% voting Republican in each.
It’s worth noting that the results in the 2nd district actually buttress the argument in favor of the President’s indomitable popularity in the state. Rep. Martha Roby retracted her endorsement of the President in 2016 in the wake of the Access Hollywood tapes. She has since decided not to run again with the ghost of this decision following her into 2020 and a somewhat difficult victory against her primary challenger in 2018.
The Numbers
There are no polls on a head-to-head matchup yet, but there is one on the Republican Primary. Roy Moore is not likely to be the nominee as things currently stand. Doug Jones’s approval also stands quite low at a +2 with only 39% approval. Going into the 2017 special election there was not a lot of polling on the Alabama Senate race despite a lot of media attention. However, the polls were less than reliable.
Don’t Trust Polls?
Doug Jones was not actually the star of the 2017 special election. Steve Bannon was. Roy Moore was not endorsed by the President until after Luther Strange lost. Moore ran on a brand of Evangelical populism that Steve Bannon found interesting. Moore was seen as a risky firebrand that was worth taking a risk on in an incredibly safe state. Ultimately, allegations came out that he was a pedophile, something he simply could not walk away from. This became an obvious wedge issue and depressed Republican turnout in the state.
As a candidate, Doug Jones has both a very relevant personal life and difficult political tightrope that he has had to walk. Jones prosecuted the klansmen in the church bombing of 1963. Politically, he ran as a mainstream Democrat with definitive view on abortion that favored choice. Since getting elected, he has maintained a rigid middle of the aisle approach, voting with Trump 50% of the time. This actually places him to the left of marginally less red state Democrat Joe Manchin.
Conclusion
There are very few favorable signs for Jones going into 2020. The race will likely not have a deeply flawed Republican candidate like Roy Moore or an October surprise like the revelations of Moore’s alleged relationships with minors. Trump is definitively popular in Alabama. This is especially important given that 2016 saw no split-ticket voting. The state, while more urban than neighboring Mississippi, at 27th vs. 32nd, is still a fairly rural state. Compounding this, the state is 49% Evangelical, a group that overwhelmingly votes Republican. An interesting caveat here is that Governor Kay Ivey, upon passing a highly restrictive abortion law, saw her approval decline double digits.
Alabama is not at a cross-roads in terms of political ideology. This is a very red state. Jones may have a large reserve of cash on hand going into 2020 and whoever he runs against will likely have come out of an expensive primary. Jones will be running a very difficult race as a pro-choice Democrat in a state where the President and Evangelical values are very popular. Barring a candidate as weak as Moore or possibly Moore himself, Jones probably does not have a shot at reelection even with the increasingly ephemeral bonus of incumbency. As things currently stand, this race is Solid Republican.
