From Tulsi With Love
Before Congress
Representing Hawaii’s dark blue second district since 2013, Tulsi Gabbard is the unlikely Moderate with the potential to destabilize the 2020 Presidential Election. Her life, as it pertains to the upcoming election, has four parts. First, Gabbard had an unusual and intensely religious childhood. Then she became involved with political activism. She subsequently served in the military. Finally she entered Congress, socially more liberal but with a unique (for her time) foreign policy perspective. In each stage of her life, Tulsi invited controversy and individuals far from the mainstream.
Gabbard’s father was a political activist, championing anti-abortion policies and warning against ‘homosexual extremism’. Tulsi herself has had a complicated relationship with an offshoot of the Hare Krishna, the Science of Identity Foundation. Her first husband, Eduardo Tamayo was a member of the cult. Her campaign now features several members and investments in individuals related to the cult. A recent audio leak validated a long-standing rumor that the cult espoused vehement anti-gay rhetoric. While Gabbard has never outright denied her relationship to the cult, she has both rhetorically distanced herself from and physically surrounded herself with the Foundation.
In the State House, Tulsi Gabbard was a young social Conservative firebrand. Tulsi first ran for the state legislature of Hawaii with grievances against homosexual activists derailing her mother’s campaign. In a 2004 interview, she spoke about the dangerous path Democrats were taking in supporting LGBTQ policies.
When asked about her current views, Gabbard often cites her extensive military service. Inspired by 9/11, she worked in grueling conditions, providing medical care in a trailer near Baghdad for 12 hour shifts. After a brief respite, she served in Kuwait in 2008. Gabbard soon ran for Congress with a set of social views more in line with her party. She also brought a cadre of foreign-policy positions that made her unique in her time. It is these latter views, isolationism and an openness to working with any leader that have brought her to center stage in the 2020 election.
Controversy In Their Politics
Transitioning from active service to politics, Gabbard’s politics shifted with her. When Gabbard ran for office, she ran with mainstream Liberal views on Gay Marriage. As recently as this year she further codified her transition with a public apology for her former views. While her activism included anti-abortion policy before Iraq, Gabbard attributed the tour to her shift in view. However, she is still being touted on the right as a potential conservative face to Democratic abortion policy. Unlike other Democrats in the House, she chose to meet with President-elect Donald Trump.
Backing a philosophy of non-interventionism and pragmatism with action, Gabbard has long raised eyes and accusations. As allegations of chemical warfare against civilians were being raised in Syria, Gabbard secretly met with Assad. This was at a time when she was also singularly espousing talking points associated with the Assad regime. She preached leaving Syria and not funding ‘rebel-terrorist’ groups. This was after a reversal in 2015 where she commended Putin’s action in Syria while criticizing President Obama’s.
How They Factor Into 2020
Gabbard’s less than middling numbers should have made her a non-factor in the 2020 election; she typically polls at around 1%. Instead, she has emerged and stayed relevant despite this and because she has become a darling of the right. Liberal turned Libertarian top podcaster Joe Rogan was one of the first online personas to encourage Tulsi to pursue 2020 after having her on his podcast. She also has seen support from more definitively Conservative voices.
From a policy standpoint, Gabbard’s disengagement with foreign policy, acceding control of the Middle East to regional powers and accusing social media of bias, make her a strange celebrity of the populist right. Ben Shapiro has mentioned multiple times that Tulsi is the best Democrat running for President and even pushed a conspiracy that Google was biased against her. Unlike when other candidates such as Sanders and Buttigieg went on Fox, she has chosen to go on Hannity and Carlson with substantively Conservative talking points. After a recent feud with Hillary Clinton she has taken to aggressive screeds against the former candidate.
Potentially the most significant development, Gabbard recently announced she will not seek reelection in Congress. Speculatively, this can be explained by either her -10 point approval number or a potential third-party bid. If Tulsi Gabbard does run as a third-party candidate, what will the effect be? Her potentially hazardous foreign policy positions may not be calamitous for her campaign as most Americans simply do not prioritize foreign policy in their voting. However, without a major party, she would function primarily as a spoiler for either Trump or his competitor.
The Ramifications
In 2016, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received about 3% of the vote. Of 2016 relative swing-states, Johnson did best in AZ (4%), CO (5%), ME(5%), MN (4%), NH (4%) and NM (9%). Almost all of these states were decided by a margin smaller than what Johnson managed to carry. Trump also won Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin and lost Nevada (and almost Virginia) by a smaller margin than what Johnson received. If Gabbard took up the mantle, since Johnson has made it clear he won’t run again, her spoiler effect hinges on what coalition she can build.
Given the Conservative media touting Gabbard, it is possible she will negatively impact the President. She certainly has had much more exposure on the right. Her accusations of censorship, the emerging top issue of big tech on the Right, sounds extremely similar to junior Missouri Senator Josh Hawley. She also supports the impeachment inquiry but believes the President is ultimately going to be exonerated. This puts her at odds with her own party’s voters. On foreign policy her attacks of ‘Liberal war-mongering’ and anti-intervention have received aplomb from Tucker Carlson. The President commands an approval within the Republican Party of around 90% but the remaining 10% has not said whether they will vote for him in 2020.
While Bernie Sanders’s impact on the 2016 general election has been an unending controversy, one irrefutable statistic is that 12% of his primary backers voted for Trump in the general election. Economic and foreign policy populism alongside a distrust for the mainstream Democratic party may be the reason why. It is certainly the basis for Gabbard’s 2016 endorsement of Sanders and fiery rebuke of Clinton. If Gabbard ran as an independent in 2020, it is this group of Democrats she would most likely be able to pick off. Her environmental policies and tenor would also potentially help her to capture the Jill Stein voters. Given the President’s razor-thin victories in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, it is possible the election would have gone differently if Stein hadn’t run.
A Gabbard third-party challenge could play out in a number of ways. While Clinton’s claim that Russia is grooming Gabbard is so far unsubstantiated and helping Gabbard, it is clear Conservatives see her as an opportunity. Given her position as a former Bernie supporter, environmentalist and war dove, Gabbard may be just the 2020 spoiler Republicans are hoping for. At the same time, the veritable embrace she has received on the right, her First Amendment concerns and her deeply populist style and philosophy may engender her too far. If 2016 Trump voters are looking for a way out, this could be it. Regardless, the fairly unpopular and Conservative-for-her-district Tulsi Gabbard is an unlikely name to watch. She might be leading with love, but it’s impossible to say who for.
