Jeanne Shaheen’s Position Is Remarkably Unshakable

The State of the State

A lot of deliberation occurred over the razor-thin margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016. However, none was as numerically narrow as New Hampshire where Clinton won by under 3,000 votes. This was after New Hampshire had voted Democrat by at least 2 points in every election after 2000. Looking at the state today, this rapid turnaround should be quite surprising. The President is 23 points underwater, identical to his approval in New York.

The trends in New Hampshire in 2018 were in line with the rest of New England. In a region with a number of popular Republican Governors, Chris Sununu won reelection by 7 points while both House seats were held by Democrats. Still, New Hampshire has drawn Republican enthusiasm as it is seen as both a potential flip in the Senate and the Electoral College in 2020. This race is also already being looked at more generally as one of the top ten Senate seats that could flip.

The Numbers

The New Hampshire Republican Primary has already drawn national attention. The President’s former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has flirted with a run against Jeanne Shaheen and already leads primary polls with 23% support. In a hypothetical head-to-head with Shaheen, he loses by 10 points. Shaheen only won her 2014 race by 3 points. Coupled with this, Shaheen now enjoys a spot as one of the 10 most popular senators in the nation and a 20 point approval rating.

Don’t Trust Polls?

New Hampshire looking politically like Vermont is a new phenomenon. As recently as 2016, the state had split representation in both bodies of Congress. New Hampshire has been steadily moving in a more socially liberal direction. On marriage, New Hampshire was an early adopter of same-sex unions and marriage. The state also has liberal laws on abortion. However, New Hampshire is more Conservative on Libertarian values such as taxation and gun control. As one of the rare states to be very areligious but also very rural, the policies New Hampshire voters align with overlap with both national parties, albeit asymmetrically.

There are additional trends serving in Shaheen’s favor. New Hampshire has nearly 70,000 college students against a population of only 1.4 million. As I stated in my piece on Thom Tillis, college student voting doubled in 2018. This has led to a bitter legislative battle over voting in New Hampshire for residents not from the state.

Conclusion

Republicans face an uphill battle in New Hampshire. The President is extremely unpopular, and he will likely hurt anyone down-ballot. If Corey Lewandowski is the Republican nominee, the primary asset of his tie to Trump will only punish him in the general election. Regardless of who the nominee is, the state continues to move left and Shaheen’s popularity is far above replacement. It’s difficult to see why Shaheen has been treated as vulnerable when this race looks to be Solid Democrat.