Joni Ernst Would Be Better Off With a Different President
The State of the State
Iowa is first in the nation for primaries but it also serves as a bellwether for other political trends. In 2016, the President overwhelming won the state by about 10 points. This was after Democrats had won in 7 of the last 9 presidential elections. In the two that Republicans won, the margin was razor-thin. Now, the President’s most recent approval in Iowa is 9 points underwater. This is far lower than in states he won by less. This approval, relative to the percent of the vote Trump garnered, speaks to how unpopular he is in the Heartland. In Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota, his approval is -2, 1 and 1 respectively.
In many ways, 2018 was a sharp rebuke of 2016. The incumbent Republican governor did hold on by 3 points but Democrats held one competitive seat and flipped 2. The seat that Democrats did not gain, in a highly rural district, came within 3 points of flipping. Although, Representative Steve King is possibly the most controversial Republican in the House.
The Numbers
Emerson polling recently found Ernst 7 points ahead of potential opponent Greenfield. However, it is worth looking at the trends in Senator Ernst’s popularity. In February she was uniformly positive in polling, with one outlier giving her a relatively impressive approval rating of 56%. Given that the President was already not popular in Iowa at 46% approval, this represents a rare feat in our polarized time. Since February, the situation has gotten much worse for Ernst. Her most recent polling numbers show a massive drop with Morning Consult putting her at 39% approval and 43% disapproval.
Don’t Trust Polls?
A huge amount of money has already been raised against Ernst. Greenfield has managed to raise $1.1 million in the last quarter. This has only been compounded by an anonymous group donating an additional million. Ernst currently only raised $1 million in the last quarter.
Joni Ernst also has suffered in the current political minefield. She ran in 2014 as an Independent Republican. Since 2016 she has hewn to a much more rigidly Conservative and pro-Trump voting score of 92%. Her latest debacle was her handling of the impeachment inquiry. Chuck Grassley, the other Senator in Iowa, has stood out among Republicans in his support for the whistleblower and his hesitancy to side with the President.
Looking at the region, Iowa is the largest producer of corn and soy in the nation. Nebraska is in the top four for corn and these, along with South Dakota and North Dakota are in the top 10 for soybean production. Corn and soy have been absolutely ravaged by the trade war with China. This helps to explain why Trump’s approval is about the same in North Dakota and Florida. The President’s policies have further negatively impacted his sentiment among corn farmers. The EPA has both relaxed oil regulations and undercut initial promises on the blend of biofuel in the nation’s fuel mix.
Conclusion
In 2020, Joni Ernst will be dealing with a number of fundamentals that will not be in her favor. Whoever her opponent is, they will be well financed. She will also be getting no support up or down the ticket from other Republicans. The President is not popular in her state, and barring any major shifts in trade, will likely be less popular in November. The lone Republican representing Iowa in the House down-ballot of her has been labeled a Nazi by his own party. Ernst has also eschewed her initial brand as an independent. However, given her popularity as recently as February, her strength in a head-to-head matchup and Iowa’s Conservative bent, Joni Ernst may still win. This race is truly a Toss-up.
