Another Short Notice Oscars Preview!
Something is happening here but we don’t know what it is.
This has been such a weird vibe of a run up to the 91st Academy Awards. Everything has happened it seemed. A new category was announced (the baffling and backhanded compliment that was the Best Popular Film) and then retracted. Kevin Hart was announced as a host and then not (retracted), instead deciding to run it without a host for the first time in three decades. Then the Academy announced that four categories ( Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Live Action Short, and Best Makeup And Hairstyling) would be cut from the live telecast but still be presented on stage and then that was retracted.
So, naturally, everything will go as expected right? Probably right. For all the hoopla and chaos surrounding Oscar season there’s a bland sense of inevitability around who will end up with a solid gold statue that are definitely not just chocolate on the inside at the end of the night. In a year of course corrections, scrambling to nominate or castigate a film as the INSERT LAZY CATEGORISATION HERE movie, maybe people have missed what the awards are all about. Thatis, all the nominees who don’t win attempting to not look awkwardly disappointed that they lost out to ‘so and so’.
What? It’s not? Fine. It’s a celebration of film. Or it should be still. That’s my naive self shining through. I want to believe in that. If not in the moment, then as the years go by. For the Oscars have become more of a capturing of a moment in time of movies than it is of actually bestowing adoration and acclaim on films. Time is the true judge on the greatness and legacy of a movie, for better or worse. Time provides clarity and reflection. The reactionary takes that litter the media scape like a trillion mines become redundant almost instantly and we can look at films with refreshed and considerate eye. Of course, it’s all about feeding the insatiable beast that is this ‘give it to me now NOW NOW’ culture with content that one barely gives a nanosecond of consideration once it passes through the mind (this post is sponsored by Clack, Brim and Shool)
But anyway *shrugs*
Best Picture
If there is such a thing as a benevolent and compassionate God, then Roma should win this. All the major predictors and form — winning the DGA, PGA, BAFTA (the Golden Globes debacle notwithstanding) point to Alfonso Cuaron’s intimate masterpiece winning the big one. But so help me god I am genuinely frightened that the Academy will turn in some lazy work and have the cloying and cliched, Green Book, or the aggressively mediocre Bohemian Rhapsody walk away with the top prize.
A Star Is Born as I had mentioned numerous times on the podcast (I swear I have) peaked way too early in it’s run and now remains only as a dark horse. As for the rest, The Favourite may have shifted into the number two or number three pick — depending on how you want to look at it. Black Panther is the illusionary bold but ultimate safe blockbuster nominee that says more of Academy voters’ predilection to trends than it does the massive cultural, long lasting importance of the movie itself (which no matter what you think of the film, cannot ever be overstated). Oh and I guess Vice and BlacKkKlansman are there as well #makingupthenumbers.
My pick: Roma (please please please), with Green Book and The Favourite as distance placegetters, and A Star is Born the dark horse (maybe Black Panther if the Academy has really fallen in love with it).
Best Director
Cuaron wrapped this up with his DGA win last month. It was great to see Pawel Pawlikowski get a nod for the stunning Cold War and the love for The Favourite had Yorgos Lanthimos get his first nomination. If there was any, ANY, chance of an upset it would be Spike Lee getting the win — his somehow baffling first time being nominated for Best Director. But really, this Cuaron all the way.
My pick: I hate conforming to anything close to concrete certainty but this is as a close to a lock as anything in existence — Alfonso Cuaron, sunlight second, the large hadron collider third, the heat death of the universe at four, Spike Lee as the dark horse.
Best Actor
I adore Viggo Mortensen forever and ever since his embodiment as Aragorn in The Lord of the Rings and pretty much everything he’s done since then (Far From Men was criminally underseen so go and watch it right after you finish reading all of this) but his turn in Green Book as Frank “Tony Lip” Vallelonga just really, really missed the mark. Ryan Gosling’s muted, intense and subtle multi-layered performance as Neil Armstrong being overlooked was disappointing but not a shock after First Man seemed to lose all of its steam when it drooped at the box office. With all that said, this is between Rami Malek and his constantly changing facial hair as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, and Christian Bale’s make up and expanded waistline as Dick Cheney in Vice.
My pick: One of the rare toss ups (if you can really call it that) of the night has me leaning towards Malek. He’s taken home most of the major signifier awards, and a lot of Bohemian Rhapsody’s quality rests on his shoulders. Bale isn’t out of it, but the rest (including Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born, and Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate) will be keeping their own seats warm.
Best Actress
This is one of the stronger categories this year. In a just world Yalitza Aparicio would be the first indigenous Mexican to win, for Roma (are you seeing a pattern forming here?) but all the favouritism is gravitating towards the more showreel kind of work that Glenn Close exhibited in The Wife. She’s…fine in it but it’s feeling more like a legacy win than anything else. Lady Gaga’s flame was burning bright until it wasn’t, but her work is still magnificent and compelling (her voice was a clear cheat code). Olivia Coleman is, like the rest of The Favourite, a damn sheer delight, and Melissa McCarthy’s shift to being also a serious dramatic actor continues apace.
My pick: Bet with your head, not with your heart — Glenn Close should win out, with Olivia Coleman as something more than a dark horse. If Roma starts winning everything then Aparicio may have a shot.
And the rest
Best Supporting Actor
My pick: Mahershala Ali effortlessly winning his second best supporting actor Oscar and everyone else settling for also rans.
Best Supporting Actress
My pick: Regina King, another lock like Ali. All that we’ve been waiting for is the official coronation. Her work is beautiful, strong and tender in If Beale Street Could Talk (which, like First Man, really deserved a Best Picture nomination. There were two free spots voters, dammit!)
Best Original Screenplay
My pick: The Favourite has asserted its claim to the throne. Roma is close to it though, and can grab the win if the Academy is feeling the love.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My pick: An enticing, open race has BlacKkKlansman poking its head in front, as its award for the night. But the same could be said for A Star Is Born (it’s exhausted run notwithstanding).
Best Animated Feature Film
My pick: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse and it’s not even a contest. One of the best, dynamic and moving films of the years that would have been a much bolder, braver choice to picked as a Best Picture nominee than (the still worthy) Black Panther.
Best Foreign Language Film
My pick: Roma. Obviously. Move along
Best Original Score
My pick: Another tantalising category to watch. I’m going to put Black Panther just a smidge in front of If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s the biggest and the loudest and the most distinct score that’s come out of the Marvel franchise. That being said Beale Street is basically the sonic version of angels falling in love amongst the ruins of the world hoping for it to be rebuilt so who knows.
Best Original Song
My pick: Shallow. Because Lady Gaga will not be denied. But damn it would be good to Kendrick Lamar win (low-key chance at the EGOT?)
Best Sound Editing (the one that has to do with foley and sound design)
My pick: Everyone is in this one but I’m going to go with First Man over A Quiet Place and Bohemian Rhapsody. I’m wholly convinced that 98 percent of voters still don’t really know what sound editing is. Again, if Roma wins then it’s a sign it’s going to sweep EVERYTHING.
Best Sound Mixing (the one that has to do with working on the mix of sound in post production like editing)
My pick: I have no idea how the Academy makes up their mind here. Bohemian Rhapsody? Probably? If I had to vote I’d go with the peerless work in First Man. So much of the film depends on the fluctuations of sound. I wouldn’t be surprised if both categories go with Damien Chazelle’s claustrophobic space race thriller.
Best Production Design
My pick: Black Panther. If it doesn’t win then I’m calling for a royal commission. Though The Favourite was pretty amazing and the academy always love a period piece.
Best Cinematography
My pick: Roma. It’s so gorgeously shot and yet barely draws attention to it. That sequence in the waves solidified it. I’m still gobsmacked in how Cuaron managed to mount that shot.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My pick: How the hell was Black Panther not nominated!!!!!! Christian Bale morphing into the greatest of banal evil will give Vice the win.
Best Costume Design
My pick: Another exciting shootout between Black Panther and The Favourite. I’ll go with The Favourite here but I wouldn’t be surprised if this and Production Design are flipped, or either of them win both. Yes, I’m massively hedging.
Best Film Editing
My pick: Sometimes referred to as the most film editing, so look for Vice to win out here. BlacKkKlansman could find some love in this category though.
Best Visual Effects
My pick: Avengers: Infinity War because Thanos.
