Avengers: Infinity War is going to turn Disney into a small country
How much will Marvel’s latest superhero team-up make, in light of some eye-popping Fandango presale numbers.
We’re a little over two weeks away from Avengers: Infinity War vacuuming up all the coin, bandwidth and pop-culture talk. A lot of people are going to see it, it’s going to make a lot of money, and the few people on the planet that haven’t seen any trailers yet will, like everyone else, fall in love with Captain America’s beard.
Fandango’s latest report has Infinity War outpacing the previous 7 Marvel films combined. That includes Black Panther which is the 3rd highest grossing US domestic release ever at nearly $670 million (and counting). Of course presale tickets and social media buzz don’t tell the full picture, and can give only general estimates to where the opening weekend gross will go. Forecasts have projected it to be anywhere between $190 million to $250 million.
This news however can blow the hinges off any expectations so let’s go wild. If it’s tracking bigger than films like the aforementioned Black Panther, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Thor: Ragnarok, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Captain America: Civil War — all of which easily cleared $300 million domestically, and $800 million worldwide (Black Panther’s global gross is above $1.2 billion which still beggars belief) than it’s eventual numbers could be ridiculously huge.
Let’s go best case scenario, where everything lines up perfectly. Audience reactions are as bright as a thousand suns, critical reaction goes beyond even the top tier of Marvel films, the weather is perfect, somehow everyone gets a raise a few days before release, and Dwayne Johnson, Katy Perry, and Christiano Ronaldo tell all their fans that Avengers: Infinity War is the greatest movie ever made and that they should see it now. The planets truly aligning like an infinity gauntlet connecting with the stones.
Then you can see an opening weekend gross topping $250 million Stateside, possibly going higher to by five or ten million if there are enough screens and sessions playing. It could be playing all day and night conceivably. And since Disney decided to move it up to the last weekend of April instead of it’s traditional spot on the first weekend of May, that worldwide opening is going to supernova. $450 million is easily covered. $500 million is a good chance to be seen in the rearview mirror. A $600 million worldwide opening weekend is certainly within range. Can it possible reach $650 million? Am I crazy? And that final worldwide gross could be anywhere between $1.3 to $2 billion. Let’s say $2 billion because it’s that kind of a day and we’re not here to make rational judgements after these figures came through.
It’s an event ten years in the making and as the days whittle away before it’s worldwide release, it’s earning every bit of that goodwill and anticipation that’s been built over the past decade. The metrics all point to something truly massive. Can it last though? Can the film linger and provide an indelible, lasting sensation? There is so much saturation, so much overlap in culture and media that it’s difficult to stand out in more than just a cursory way. To capture the zeitgeist while also remaining something that can age well. Instead of turning into a series of memes and gifs.
All that is to say that Disney will most likely require a seat at the next G20 summit.
