How far away are the Brisbane Lions from contending?
The clock is ticking for their rebuild to start yielding tangible wins and not just honourable losses
In Rocky, Sylvester Stallone’s inspirational oft quoted underdog story, Rocky Balboa just wants to go the distance. He wants to prove that he’s not a pushover or a never was. That he can go toe to toe with the very best. To never back down and reach the final bell. Not to succeed but to endure.
For the first 3 rounds of the season, the Brisbane Lions have been enduring admirably. Underdogs that have garnered a wellspring of support and interest for their youth, potential and the excitement surrounding what’s possible with their list as currently constructed. They’ve been in the fight for each of the first three weeks. Games that were within reach (admittedly ones that if they had a few more games under the belt they would have been able to put away for the win.
But they weren’t wilting. It felt like that finally after all these years of rebuilding, of struggle and harrowing, bludgeoning losses, of young prospects leaving and a deadening culture that made some of the best young prospects in the league desperate to leave — all that pain that the fans endured — would be left in the rear view mirror. The next step in the evolution of the team was at hand.
And then last week happened. An absolute demolition job by defending premiers Richmond of astronomical proportions. Caving in almost instantly, getting trounced by 93 points, putting up a pitiful 4 points by half time, on the way to an historic club low of 17 by the final, merciful buzzer. The execution was so definitive and far reaching that it felt like the team could very much regress to the pre-war era. It’s the type of loss that can lodge itself mentally in a young side and fester, curbing the rest of a possibly encouraging season. It’s like someone misplaced the activate button to launch the team into contention or at least relevancy on the ladder.
After staying in the contest against St Kilda, Melbourne and Port Adelaide, the wheels completely fell off against the Tigers. Unable to get any effective plays inside 50, smothered by Richmond’s relentless defence, and letting Dustin Martin have a field day with 6 goals. The stats show a relatively easy match up on paper.
But Richmond were simply better at garnering legitimate attacking opportunities and not missing. As per afl.com, they spent almost a third of the game in their forward half, never took the pressure off, and when the Lions did gather possession, forced intercept after intercept to stimy any semblance of attack from Brisbane. When the Lions did manage to get momentum going, it just fell off a cliff when getting into their attacking 50, a harsh callback to some the worst times from their recent history when you often wondered how they could possible get any score, let alone string three or four majors together to make it a contest.
It’s not panic stations yet. The team still has the predilection to turn in clanger of a match like this, even if it does hurt more than it would have a few seasons ago. It’s still a side developing a strong identity, and figuring out how to harness a winning culture and mentality. With talent like Jarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood, genuine superstar in the making and 2017’s number one draft pick Cam Rayner alongside veteran stars like Dayne Beams, Dayne Zorko and former Hawthorn champion Luke Hodge, there’s enough pieces in the mix to make the season an encouraging one. Not to mention cause a few headaches for teams looking to make the finals this year.
But very real questions have to be asked: how far away from contending are the Lions? Was last weeks implosion an aberration? A blip on the radar on the way to the oasis of sustained success? When does the flip switch from hard fought losses to figuring out how — and more importantly executing — to win games?
Before the start of the season, a 7 to 9 win record sounded achievable, and more importantly, it was the type of goal that should be expected from a side wanting to be on the rise. There were encouraging signs in the back half of last season that promise better things to come. But there’s already a fork in the road. The teams window of contention might still be a few doors down. If they can bounce back in a meaningful this week against the lacklustre Suns (2–2) then it could waylay some concerns. On paper the Lions should account for Gold Coast without too much trouble. It’s the kind of match that if Brisbane want to be considered a threat in the near future, they have to get the job done.
The problems arise when expectation starts to outstrip reality. Look at Carlton for example — a basketcase of a team that has no idea whether to blow it all up and rebuild, or offer up false hope at the beginning of every season. Or North Melbourne’s improbable start to the 2016 season, going 9–0 before cratering in the second half, barely sneaking into finals and bottomed out completely a year later. The Lions are in prime position to gobble up these schizophrenic teams, and move into the next tier currently occupied by Melbourne, Essendon and St Kilda. Teams that have gone through their own extended rebuilds (Essendon forcefully obviously) and come out the other side looking like legitimate prospects to make the top eight. But the Lions have to make the leap from hypothetical to tangible. Not just aspire to be competitive, but start to win games, be in it for four quarters instead of dropping in and out like a bad wifi connection.
The next four rounds have them facing the Suns, Giants, Collingwood and Bulldogs. Apart from the Giants game, these are all excceedingly winnable matches. Ones that if they had any desire to turn that promise into reality, they’ll emerge victorious. It’s not too far fetched to see the Lions at 5–7 by the time their bye round comes about. It’s also easy to see them languishing with a solitary win. The time has come to go beyond the talk and whatever stage of rebuilding fans and the club have endured. The Lions should look to make last week's loss a line in the sand — from where they were to where they are — and turn into a team that knows how to win.
