The Nintendo Switch Has the Most Promising Library of Any Console Ever

Breath of the Wild, one of the best games of all time, has set the Switch on a path to success.

No, seriously. Twenty years from now, we will look back on the Switch and think “Wow. We’re never going to have a library that good again.”

Here’s my reasoning. There have only ever been five series that consistently sell Nintendo consoles. Only five. No more. There have been things that sold consoles inconsistently, like how Donkey Kong Country and Street Fighter sold Super Nintendos but didn’t make as big of a splash in the future, but there are five series that make a significant dent in hardware sales every time. The “big five” are:

Mario, Link, and Pikachu are the core pillars of Nintendo’s five system selling franchises.

1. The Legend of Zelda. Specifically, mainline Zelda titles like the recent Breath of the Wild and not necessarily the side games like Tri Force Heroes or Hyrule Warriors.
2. Mario Kart. The attachment rate on Mario Kart games is insane. Everyone wants to play as Baby Pink Gold WaPeach.
3. Exciting Super Mario platformers. The “exciting” qualifier is important here because the Wii U had Super Mario 3D World and Super Mario Maker, two very great but not exciting games. Super Mario becomes a system seller only when it garners a certain amount of hype. Super Mario Galaxy fit in this category as did the first two New Super Mario Bros. games.
4. Mainline Pokémon. There are people who don’t play any video games whatsoever except Pokémon. It’s the second-best selling game series of all-time, is always console exclusive, and experienced a lot of brand growth last year thanks to Pokémon GO and Pokémon Sun and Moon.
5. Super Smash Bros. This one’s straightforward. Smash generates entire years of speculation online before its launch and capitalizes on it enormously.

That’s it. Runners up include Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing. Fire Emblem was not included because it has only become the sales powerhouse it is recently while Animal Crossing was not listed because it has not been quite as consistent as the above five series.

Other games definitely help make a console an easier buy, but I would argue that it’s just the presence of other games and not specific other games. For example, having a new Metroid in a console’s library certainly makes the console look like it has more hits, but unfortunately Metroid itself only sells alright. As do Star Fox, F-Zero, or Pikmin.

Sorry, Pikmin 3. You were really great, but you can’t sell hardware.

One of the hardest truths to swallow about video game sales is that Nintendo’s gigantic stockpile of best-selling intellectual properties is an illusion. It has five things that sell consoles every time, some other things that sell reasonably well, and a mass of struggling franchises that sold well once or twice before retiring to a character slot in Super Smash Bros.

With this in mind, how will the Switch’s library look? Let’s go through the checklist:

After Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the second system seller the Switch will have… if people can actually buy the machine at the time of the game’s launch.

1. Zelda. It’s already out. Not only does the Switch have a brand new mainline Zelda game, it’s being lauded as one of the best games in the series. Breath of the Wild has managed to have sold more copies than the Switch itself, cementing it as one of the most powerful launch games of all-time.
2. Mario Kart. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, an enhanced remaster of the Wii U’s Mario Kart, launches later this week. The original Mario Kart 8 was lauded by critics as being “the king of the mascot kart circuit” and Deluxe serves as the new definitive edition of the game. It includes all of Mario Kart 8’s extensive DLC bundles and a new battle mode. The original game sold around eight million copies which is pretty good, but compared to Mario Kart Wii’s approximately 37 million copies, it is clear that 8’s sales were severely hampered by the poor sales of the Wii U console. This new definitive edition of the game will be many people’s first experience with it.
3. Exciting Super Mario platformer. Super Mario Odyssey is scheduled to release in “Holiday 2017," which probably means this November. Odyssey will return to the non-linear style of Super Mario 64 that the series hasn’t returned to since 2002’s Super Mario Sunshine and gamers are stoked about this. The announcement trailer has over 20 million views on Youtube. This game has succeed in drumming up hype where Super Mario 3D World did not.
4. Pokémon. Although not officially confirmed, Pokémon Stars is a potential third version of Pokémon Sun and Moon that has been continually hinted at since the day Sun and Moon launched. Whether it’s actually Stars, Eclipse, or something completely different, it’s likely that we’ll see the Pokémon series shift to the Switch as early as this holiday season.
5. Super Smash Bros. After Mario Kart 8’s Deluxe treatment, the next obvious Wii U title to be ported to Switch is Super Smash Bros. for Wii U. This would make sense for a 2018 release. At this point, however, nothing is confirmed. Much like Mario Kart 8, the Wii U’s Smash Bros. sold well, but not nearly as well as it would have on a console with a greater install base.

Of the big five, three are already confirmed, one is hinted at strongly, and the fifth doesn’t seem like a long shot at all. The only other console in Nintendo’s history that has locked down all five was the Gamecube with The Wind Waker, Double Dash, Super Mario Sunshine, Pokémon Colosseum and XD, and Super Smash Bros. Melee. This is rare because the mainline Pokémon series is almost always a handheld-exclusive brand while the bigger Zelda games have all been on consoles. The Switch’s dual nature of being both a handheld system and a home console allows these games to coexist on the same console for the first time.

Alola, the setting of Pokémon Sun and Moon. The popular world of Pokémon has traditionally been exclusive to handhelds. The Switch looks to be the first home console to change that.

Perhaps even more important than the fact that it has all five series are the speed and quality of these releases. Most major consoles are expected to last around five years and it’s likely that four of the Switch’s five system sellers are launching year one while the fifth is probably year two. That’s very early. Unheard of, even. On top of that, Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and Super Mario Odyssey all seem like instant classics (or remasters of instant classics) where some of the aforementioned Gamecube titles were slightly less indelible. Time will tell if the Pokémon and Smash Bros. games for Switch will be as top-of-the-line, but … Pokémon fans will buy the new Pokémon game and the console to play it on no matter what so Nintendo needn’t worry about that.

Getting these done well and early means that the beginning of the console’s life will be the draw of the majority of its hardware sales. What third-party developers look for in a console is ability and install base. The Switch will always have less ability than its more powerful competitors at Sony and Microsoft, but I predict its install base to be much larger than theirs as soon as the big five system sellers launch which is most likely only the first year and a half of the Switch’s life. That leaves approximately three and a half years for other games to fill out the rest of the library, which they will because the volume of consoles sold by the big five makes the risk of publishing on the system much lower.

The three and a half-ish year period following the big five’s releases will be a period of enormous creative prosperity. Nintendo can take risks with some of their smaller titles; third parties might actually see the Switch as a valid marketplace for their games; and handheld and console series alike will flock to the system. Because of only five specific, masterfully scheduled games, the Switch will have one of the greatest libraries of all-time.