2023: A Record-Breaking Year for Global Warming — and a big, big warning for the future.

2023 has marked a significant and alarming milestone in the history of our planet’s climate.

According to the European Union’s climate service, Copernicus, it was the warmest year on record, a stark indicator of the accelerated pace of global warming.

The records show the average temperature across the planet was some +0.17℃ higher than in 2016. That, by yearly change, is massive. From June onwards, every month was hotter than ever before.

This surge in temperatures, with the daily global average a staggering 1.48°C above the pre-industrial era, is largely attributed to human-induced climate change, exacerbated by the natural phenomenon known as El Niño.

However, what was perhaps more alarming was both the scale and consistency of these high temperatures.

Throughout the year, almost every day from July onwards set new records for global air temperature for that time of year. This trend was also mirrored in sea surface temperatures, which reached unprecedented highs.

These global statistics signify a distressing proximity to breaching key international climate targets — with scientists warning that an increase above 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels will trigger devastating climate change.

Image source Copernicus

2023 was possibly the warmest year in the last 100,000 years

Announcing the Copernicus results yesterday (January 9th 2024), Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Centre, warned that 2023 had been by a large margin the warmest year on record since detailed records started in the 1940s, and in all likelihood, could have been the warmest year in the last 100,000 years.

He added “Unless we manage to rapidly stabilise and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we can expect more of the climate related disasters we have seen during 2023.

“Indeed — unless we make significant changes, we might look back on the record breaking year of 2023 as a cool year.”

Image source Copernicus

The significance of 2023’s temperatures lies not just in their record-breaking nature but in the extent to which these records were shattered, scientists noted. The global averages show startling deviations, indicative of a rapidly changing climate.

This unexpected rise in temperatures is primarily linked to a swift transition to El Niño conditions, superimposed on long-term human-caused warming.

El Niño, a natural event characterised by warmer surface waters in the East Pacific Ocean, typically impacts global temperatures. However, the early and intensified effects of this El Niño phase caught scientists by surprise, raising new questions about our understanding of climate dynamics.

2023’s global warmth has been almost universal, with almost all regions experiencing temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average. This pervasive warmth has had severe consequences, fueling extreme weather events worldwide, including devastating heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods.

The implications of this rapid climate change extend beyond air temperatures. In 2023, Antarctic sea ice plummeted to shockingly low levels, glaciers across western North America and the European Alps saw extreme melting, and the world’s oceans recorded their highest temperatures amidst several marine heatwaves. Since May, ocean surfaces have been breaking temperature records consistently, with many days surpassing previous records by substantial margins.

As we look to 2024, there is a looming concern that it might surpass the temperatures of 2023, potentially breaching the critical 1.5°C warming threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement. While a single year exceeding this threshold does not constitute a failure of the agreement, it underscores the urgent need for action against global warming.

Image source Copernicus

The COP28 climate summit, held in the wake of these findings, acknowledged for the first time the need to address the primary driver of rising temperatures — fossil fuel consumption. Although the commitments made were less stringent than many had hoped, they signal a recognition of the urgent need for progress in areas like renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Commenting, Mauro Facchini, Head of Unit for Earth Observation, DG DEFIS, European Commission, said: “We knew we would not receive good news here today about 2023.

“But the annual data presented today provides more evidence of the increasing impact of climate change.”