Analysing and Predicting Manchester United’s Performance : A Data Science Perspective
From the last few years, statistics have been a key element in football. The data available has been widely used for the pre/post match analysis, player’s pre match fitness, player ratings, scouting, to decide the form of a team, predicting the results of matches and even for betting. The most widely used statistical approach to prediction is ranking the teams. The football world these days Is surely becoming data driven . Being a Data Science enthusiast I was quite excited when I got to know there were lots of football datasets available, and soon decided to dive deeper into exploration of the Premier League data. I have been a Manchester United fan for a while now and without thinking for a second I knew which of the English team’s performance I would be analysing. I took the data available from various football data sites to analyse Man United’s performance in their last 3 seasons (2016/17,2017/18,2018/19). Manchester United is the most decorated club in the history of English football, also one of the elite teams in European football. In season 2012/13 the club’s most adored and favourite manager Sir Alex Ferguson stepped down from his position and since then, the so called downfall of United began. Managers came and left and seasons passed but they did not win a single Premier League title in the last 6 seasons, but are they really performing that bad ? This is basically a pre match analysis and how stats before the match affect the match result , which can be useful for predicting the outcome of the matches. So let’s begin the analysis.
1.United’s Performance in the PL Table
Manchester United have not won the league since the retirement of The Gaffer, Sir Alex Ferguson, many rival fans and football pundits stated this as “The Downfall of United”, some even said it to be the end One of the Greatest Football Clubs. But after a detailed analysis, I figured out that United had performed quite well , statistically . 2017/18 being the best finish in the league table, United finished 2nd behind its arch rival. Though all these years have been tough for United fans as the team is not that consistent, they have to fight hard for the UEFA Champions League Spot. Let us check the battle for Top Four season by season from the last three seasons and see whether the team played with that Top Four Mentality.
Does the League Position before the Game affect its Results ?
This was Josue Mourinho’s first season. The Team started the season quite well with the new signings, Ibrahimović, Bailly, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and of course Pogba, performing quite well . But later United’s form dipped over the upcoming Matchdays. Zlatan and Pogba duo were performing well, still United could not climb up the League Table. In Initial Matchdays Team was ranked higher in the table but could not maintain it and finished 6th in the Table.
United achieved their highest points total and league placing in the last 5 seasons. Lukaku being in form with Pogba, Rashford and Martial. It is said that one match can define the Title Winner and you can see the draw from matchday 4 had cost Man United their first Title in 5 seasons. United did put their full efforts to get back to first position but Manchester City seemed to be better. After their second place was secured in Premier League, United started focusing UEFA Europa League, which they eventually won, making PL their second priority during the last few matches.
A Season of highs and lows, The Red Devils under Mourinho were winning a few matches and losing a few , being inconsistent. This led to sacking of Mourinho and the appointment of Ole Gunnar Solskjær . Ole won five matches in a row and took the team into the top four , but only for a few matches. Collecting only 5 points from the last 7 matches, the team finished 6th .
This proves that the League Position before the game does affect the mentality of the players. As the team like Manchester United gets heavily criticised after being below The Top 6 in table and the players have to give in their 200% and perform well. And while predicting any match of United , its position in the table should be considered.
2.Statistically Man United have been pretty good in last three seasons
Does the Stats of the previous game Psychologically affect Today’s Game ?
Effect of team’s form on the Results
In football , form of a team is considered very important while predicting the outcome of the match. Form generally is defined as the results of past three matches. United often played unpredictable and left the fans disheartened. Not always United won the matches before which they had won all three matches. Even after being in tremendous form , they dropped points very often. This can be seen in the above graph , which shows the results of the matches played , from the start of season 2016/17 to season 2018/19 , and their form before the match. So while predicting United’s matches form cannot be considered as a prime element.
Better Shot Accuracy in the previous Game resulted in Win ?
Some football critics might argue that in each match players have a different mindset than the previous game, but players perform well when criticized . United had deadly attacking players all these seasons, Lukaku, Pogba, Martial, Zlatan, Sanchez and sometimes even Lingard scored goals, despite having such strong attacking options , in some matches Man United failed to perform in the attacking third. But the analysis tells us a different story, whenever the previous match shot accuracy was high, United won most of the times and drew sometimes.
3. The Home Advantage
Is Old Trafford a Fortress
In football a stadium is considered a “Fortress” if the winning % of home team is above 75 %
Well looking at the graph ,the answer is No, Old Trafford is not a fortress, with winning % of just 60%.
“You can learn a line from a win and a book from defeat.”
Some easy games had slipped from United’s hands at Home in 3 seasons, still Old Trafford fear is there in opponents mind as clock is always ticking and comebacks are always possible .
“Old Trafford is a phenomenal place to play football , I love it” — Josue Mourinho
4.Know the Opponent , In & Out
How well can United defend at Old Trafford .
Number of goals scored by each opponent at Old Trafford
Arsenal and Manchester City have loved the atmosphere at Old Trafford. Surprisingly even Burnley have quite a good scoring form at United’s home. Man City have scored 6 goals in 3 matches, turns out that Noisy Neighbours made some noise here too.
Scoring Form at Home
Number of goals scored against each opponent at Old Trafford
United’s goal scorers had been in a decent form at home, Arsenal and Chelsea being the favourite teams to score against among the Top 6.
Saviour — David De Gea
David De Gea had been a crucial player for United all these seasons, lately his form has dipped a little but his form in previous seasons cannot be overlooked, keeping 43 cleansheets in 114 matches has been remarkable. Quick footwork and large hands, always can be trusted. He kept 3 cleansheets against United’s biggest rivals Liverpool, also 3 cleansheets against Spurs. If De Gea is in his form, United can be undefeatable, but in football the whole team cannot always depend on one player.
5.Not only players affect the Game
Referees & Results
“That Referee was biased towards our team”, these are the words by the fans after their defeat, but is it true, NO. Football is played honestly to an extent and referees also do their job impartially. But while predicting the result of the match , the referee in charge can be a considerable factor. Analysis shows that United won 8 matches each when A.Taylor and J.Moss were in charge.
Sometimes it may be seen that the referee is influenced by the home crowd and takes decisions under pressure of home supporters, but PL referees have nerves of steel and they try to make honest decisions, in almost every match .
United has a seasonal form ? Does United perform better in some months as compared to others ?
This is just a factor to be considered and not to be taken very seriously as months only do not matter. Results also depend on other competitions and days in between two matches, How hectic was the schedule, Injuries of key players and January Signings.
6.Predicting the outcome of first 5 matches of Man United in season 2019/20
So for predicting the results I used the Machine Learning Algorithm — Decision Tree, considering all the above mentioned factors .
Results of 4 Matches were predicted accurately with exact scores of 3 Matches, though as every United fan knows Manchester United have been unpredictable over the past few seasons, so there are obviously some outlier matches like that of against Chelsea also it was the first match of the season, making it hard for predicting the result. But to be honest being a United fan I love some of those Unpredictable results, of course wins .
“I do believe in fate” — Sir Alex Ferguson
“Glory, glory, Man United, Glory, glory, Man United, Glory, glory, Man United,And the reds go marching on, on, on.”
Data Sources :
https://www.optasports.com/sports/football/
