COVID-19 Disproportionately Affects America’s Wealthiest Counties and Minority Communities
Introduction
Recent data published by the CDC indicates that racial and ethnic minorities in the U.S.A. have disproportionately higher COVID-19 hospitalization rates and death rates. It is believed this is due to higher rates of underlying conditions like diabetes and heart disease, as well as living conditions resulting from lower income.
I wanted to see to what extent the higher COVID-19 cases and deaths existed among communities where racial and ethnic minorities are in the majority, and what relationship there was between COVID-19 and socioeconomic status. I used county-level data (https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00756) on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths through April 30, 2020, along with COVID-19 intervention data, 2018 demographic data, and CDC’s 2018 social vulnerability index data to answer the following questions:
1. Where are the counties with majority Black or Hispanic populations?
2. How do the COVID-19 numbers in counties with majority Black or Hispanic populations compare to counties where Blacks and Hispanics are in the minority?
3. Is there a relationship between COVID-19 and income?
4. What factors relate to COVID-19 infection?
1. Identifying the Black and Hispanic Counties
Using the county-level demographic data, I identified the counties in the U.S.A. with a majority Black or Hispanic population by identifying the counties where Blacks or Hispanics make up more than 50% of the county’s population.
There are 97 counties in the USA where more than half of the population is Black. The average population size of counties with a majority Black population is 68,526. The State with the most counties with a majority Black population is Mississippi, followed by Georgia, then Alabama.
The average Median Household Income in counties with a majority Black population is $36,302.
There are 101 counties in the USA where more than half of the population is Hispanic. The average population size of counties with a mostly Hispanic population is 177,958. The State with the most counties with a majority Hispanic population is Texas, followed by New Mexico, then California.
The average Median Household Income for counties in the USA with a majority Hispanic population is $46,698.
The average Median Household Income for all counties in the USA is $52,794. The average County population size in the USA is 102,597.
2. COVID-19 in Black and Hispanic Counties
The figure below shows the average number of confirmed COVID-19 cases for all USA Counties, majority Black Counties, and Majority Hispanic Counties. For all USA Counties, the average number of COVID-19 cases per County is 277.6 and the average number of COVID-19 deaths per County is 13.9.
Counties with a majority Black population averaged 297.3 COVID-19 cases and 14.4 COVID-19 deaths, which is higher than the National Average. Counties with a mostly Hispanic population averaged 246.8 COVID-19 cases and 7.0 COVID-19 deaths, which is lower than the National Average.
The figures below show the Number of COVID-19 cases versus the percentage of the County’s population that is Black or Hispanic.
In both figures above, while the higher number of COVID-19 cases exist in Counties where Blacks and Hispanics are minorities, there is a trend that shows that number of COVID-19 cases tend to increase as the percentage of Blacks or Hispanics in the County’s population increases.
3. COVID-19 and Income
The figures below show the average number of COVID-19 cases and death by County Per Capita Income Percentile. Performing the same analysis using Median Household Income Percentile shows the same trend.
The figures above show that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths tend to increase as County Income increases, with the top 1% having the highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
The figures below show the States where the Counties with the top 1% highest Median Household Income and Per Capita Income are located.
The average Median Household Income in Counties with the top 1% highest Median Household Income is $112,714. The average Per Capita Income in Counties with the top 1% highest Per Capita Income is $50,930.
The race and ethnicity demographics of the Counties with the top 1% highest Median Household Income and Per Capita Income which have the highest average number of COVID-19 cases and death per County are shown in the figure below.
The Counties with the top 1% highest Median Household Income and Per Capita Income are mostly White (over 50%), followed by “Other Race” (Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, American Indian and Alaska Native, or Two or More Races), followed by Hispanic, and under 10% of the population of these counties are Black.
4. Factors relating to COVID-19
The figure below shows the correlation matrix for the variables sourced from county-level data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths through April 2020, county demographics, and CDC’s 2018 social vulnerability index (SVI).
The top 5 variables with the strongest correlation to COVID-19 cases are:
- Population estimate
- Housing units / Households
- Housing in structures with 10 or more units
- Per capita income / Median Household Income
- Active Physicians per 100,000 Population
Variables on COVID-19 interventions were included with the demographic variables and SVI variables in a supervised machine learning model to see the relationship to COVID-19. The figure below shows the top 20 most influential coefficients in the model. In the figure below the red bars represent coefficients with negative values, and the green bars represent coefficients with positive values.
Of all the variables considered, it appears that the COVID-19 interventions of shutting down public schools, shutting down dine-in restaurants, and restricting the size of gatherings (social distancing/physical distancing) have the most impact on COVID-19.
Conclusion
The average number of COVID-19 Cases and deaths was found to be higher in Counties with a majority Black population. This shows that racial minority communities are in fact disproportionately experiencing the impacts of COVID-19. While the Median Household Income in Counties with a majority Black population tends to be lower than the National average, it was also shown that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths tends to increase as the Median Household Income and Per Capita Income of the County increases. The Counties with the top 1% highest Incomes had the highest average number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. One possible explanation for this could be that individuals residing in the Counties with the top 1% highest Incomes would have been more likely to have traveled, or associated with someone who traveled, to one of the Countries at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Another possible explanation is that more testing is being done in Counties where there is more money. In either case, the COVID-19 interventions such as shutting down public schools, shutting down dine-in restaurants, and restricting the size of gatherings (social distancing/physical distancing) seem to hamper the spread of COVID-19 infection. Since COVID-19 has impacted everyone regardless of race or socioeconomic status, if we all work together, we can overcome this pandemic to restore Public Health.
The source code and data for this project is available on my Github here: https://github.com/dujamaa/covid-19_race_and_income
