Don’t judge decisions by their outcomes
How hindsight biases our judgement
Steve Bartman is probably the most unlucky fan in baseball history. In 2003, while watching a game of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, he made a decision that resulted in millions of fans around the world hating and threatening him for years to come. What happened?
How we misjudge decisions of others
The Chicago Cubs were one game away from reaching their first World Series since 1945. In the 8th inning of Game 6 against the Florida Marlins, Cubs leading 3–0, Marlins batter Luis Castillo hit the ball into the foul territory in the left field. Cubs outfielder Moisés Alou attempted to catch the ball, while several spectators reached for the ball as well from their seats. Bartman was one of those spectators: he reached for the ball, but he deflected it, disrupting Alou’s potential catch. Even worse, the Cubs lost their lead and ultimately lost the game 3–8, after which they lost the final game as well, crushing Cubs fans’ dreams of going to the World Series that year. Bartman was blamed, booed at, shouted at, thrown garbage at, and threatened, first from the tens of thousands fans in the entire stadium, and then for years to come by millions of Cubs fans worldwide. Even the Governor of Illinois blamed him. Florida Governor Jeb Bush…
