Double the Trouble: Evacuations During COVID-19
Six Key Considerations for Agencies Planning for Evacuations Amidst Simultaneous and Dueling Crises
Stephen Wong and Susan Shaheen, Ph.D.
Evacuations have been a critical transportation strategy to move thousands and sometimes millions of people out of harm’s way, whether from a natural disaster (e.g., hurricane, wildfire, tsunami) or a human-made disaster (e.g., chemical spill, terrorism). For example, nearly 200,000 people were ordered to evacuate from the recent Kincade Fire in 2019 in California, while over one million were ordered to evacuate from Hurricane Dorian along the Atlantic seaboard. With hurricane season and wildfire season both rapidly approaching, a new concern has arisen: How can we safely evacuate people during the COVID-19 crisis?
Governments often rely on a number of strategies to safely evacuate people and ensure social equity: 1) leveraging high-capacity public transit, 2) facilitating resource sharing among neighbors, 3) housing people in public shelters, 4) encouraging friends and family to shelter evacuees, and 5) working in close proximity and directly with the public to manage response and recovery. For example, New Orleans has developed a city-assisted evacuation plan that uses buses to pick up residents from 17 locations, shuttle them to an indoor arena, and then transport them to a safe state or federal shelter. This plan exposes a critical problem:
Stay-at-home orders and social distancing to address COVID-19 directly conflict with evacuation orders that typically rely upon high-capacity vehicles and shelters to protect people in disasters.
With simultaneous and dueling disasters, four key goals must be met:
1. Increasing compliance to mandatory evacuation orders,
2. Reducing congestion and improving transportation response,
3. Ensuring social equity for vulnerable people, and
4. Minimizing the spread of COVID-19.
To meet these goals, agencies will need to consider a variety of approaches. We describe six strategies below:
1) Leveraging time to increase social distancing: For natural disasters that provide substantial lead time (i.e., one day or more of notice prior to needing to evacuate), evacuations could begin even earlier to spread out traffic and resource use at gas stations, restaurants, and public restrooms, reducing contact among evacuees. Extending the influx of evacuees will help to reduce peak demand on critical resources, similar to phased evacuations and their associated traffic congestion benefits.
2) Changing transportation plans to slow infections: Public transit-based evacuation plans will likely need to be modified to limit the number of passengers per bus, requiring more buses to transport carless and vulnerable individuals (e.g., older adults). Lower-capacity vehicles, such as transportation network company (TNC) vehicles via platforms, such as Lyft and Uber, could be used to reduce social contact and offer point-to-point service for evacuees. However, policies and guidelines will be needed to ensure that vehicles are sanitized, similar to current steps taken by public transit providers and some shared mobility companies.
3) Rethinking public sheltering to minimize risks: Shelters will require a series of changes, including capacity reduction, separated quarantine zones, and additional personal protection equipment (PPE), to slow the spread of COVID-19. Past experiences related to outbreaks of other diseases in shelters (e.g., norovirus) may provide useful best practices and lessons learned (e.g., increasing PPE training for volunteers, using disinfectant for all surfaces and clothing, and isolating sick individuals).
4) Encouraging low-contact sheltering and volunteering: In most evacuations, the majority of evacuees stay with a family member or friend. This should still be encouraged to reduce contact with larger groups of people, such as in public shelters. Homesharing platforms, such as Airbnb or VRBO, could also be leveraged to increase the supply of low-contact shelters. However, evacuee hosts should continue to practice proper sanitation and do their best to isolate evacuees, as possible. For example, households can isolate an evacuee away from common spaces for the duration of a stay or continue to practice social distancing (i.e., six feet distance), if isolation is not possible. Similarly, volunteering should still be encouraged but with social distancing practices, sanitation procedures, and correct PPE usage.
5) Monitoring COVID-19 via testing and contact tracing: Given the rapid movement of people into sometimes far-flung places, rapid and accurate testing and contact tracing will be needed to monitor the spread of COVID-19 and identify potential new hot spots. However, steps must be taken to ensure privacy and reduce the likelihood of damaging surveillance. Local areas with a high influx of evacuees may need to reinstitute stay-at-home orders to slow the spread of the virus. Testing will also help communities rebuild after a disaster.
6) Considering contactless and innovative mobility options: Contactless forms of mobility and delivery services could help to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Opportunities include leveraging drones to distribute relief supplies and employing smaller TNC vehicles (and microtransit vehicles) to transport evacuees. Future research is needed to determine the role of connected and automated vehicles in evacuation assistance, beyond current routing benefits.
The short-term and long-term impacts of a major disaster requiring a large-scale evacuation during COVID-19 will be devastating to the health and safety of residents and the economy of communities. Pre-disaster planning is critical to mitigating the effects of simultaneous and dueling disasters. Moreover, rapid distribution of best practices and lessons learned across disasters and countries will help to build more resilient communities in the face of both hazards and COVID-19, preparing for disasters both near-term and far into the future.
About the Authors:
Stephen Wong is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of California, Berkeley. He is an affiliate with the Institute of Transportation Studies and the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley. He also conducts research for the UC Institute of Transportation Studies’ California Resilient and Innovative Mobility Initiative (RIMI).
Susan Shaheen is a professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and a research engineer with the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. She is Co-Director of the Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC) at the University of California, Berkeley. She also directs the UC Institute of Transportation Studies’ California RIMI.
