Looking back to look forward: Fiction, Friction and Future Mundane
Leveraging past future predictions to sharpen our foresight
As humans, we have always been captivated by the elusive nature of what is yet to come. Throughout our existence, we have turned to a variety of sources to try and predict the future, from Nostradamus and tarot card readers to Hollywood filmmakers, writers, game developers, trendwatchers, renowned technology institutions like MIT, and more recently AI generators like ChatGPT, Dall-E or Midjourney.
“People need a motivating vision of what comes next and the awareness that more will happen after that … the future is a process not a destination. The future is a verb not a noun.” — Bruce Sterling, Novelist and Futurist
In today’s rapidly changing world, companies, product developers, product managers and designers are keenly interested in predicting the future to gain a competitive edge. The ability to anticipate market trends, technological advancements, and changing consumer preferences is crucial for creating products and services that meet the needs of tomorrow’s consumers. From conducting extensive market research and user testing to experimenting with emerging technologies and design trends, there are many methods that companies and designers apply to forecast the future.
But in our quest as innovators to uncover and define what lies ahead, how can we ensure that we are not limiting our framing of the future and that we are creating a better future for all?
Enter the world of Design Fiction, where future scenarios are defined using imagination, creativity, and design tools. In the book The Manual of Design Fiction (2022) by Julian Bleecker, Nick Foster, Fabien Girardin and Nicolas Nova the team of The Near Futures Lab provides insight into why and how they develop these possible near futures that are less than 5 years ahead.
By combining new technologies with faint signals — emerging trends, behaviors, values, and needs — the team often is called upon to establish a new Northstar for companies. With a process that not only sparks discussion and conversation it aims to provide a through line between human behavior, possibility, and potential.
A key directive for Design Fiction is to shape the ‘future mundane’ in the form of familiar artifacts like a flyer, a magazine, a catalogue or filmed advertisement. Think for example of the instruction manual that addresses the quick fix for when the future robotic helper breaks down. The Near Futures Lab states that “when design fiction is brought down to the normal, ordinary, everyday user experience it often is the most effective.”
Reading the book brought back many memories for me of other future depictions, especially ones that I encountered throughout my career as a design creative and product developer.
To help you make your own design fictions more considered, let’s take a look at five insights gleaned from these “Mundane Futures” of the past:
TL;DR
- Be mindful of biases: Imagined futures are always influenced by the perspectives of those creating them. Consider diverse perspectives to create a more balanced view of the future.
- Function beyond form: It’s not enough to make things look cool. Prioritize usability & accessibility to create futures that benefit all.
- Embrace responsibility: While glamorous futures may be more appealing, responsible futures are essential for building a better world.
- Focus on a few key Northstars: Too many ideas can dilute your vision and hinder success. Choose a few to focus on and bring to life.
- Look to the past to shape the future: Our values, traditions, and behaviors are deeply ingrained in the stories of our past. These can be rich sources to guide and inform our visions for the future.
1. Kitchen of the future World fair, 1950s
Don’t overlook social progress, imagined futures are easily biased
World fairs, also known as world expos, have long been venues for showcasing the latest advances in technology and innovation, and they have often featured predictions about the future. RCA and Whirlpool’s “Miracle Kitchen,” started traveling around the world in 1956 and made an appearance at the American National Exhibition in Moscow in 1959.
It was meant to showcase a future where everything was controlled with the push of a button, so “the things women don’t like to do are done automatically,” according to a promotional video for the concept kitchen.
Needless to say, this kitchen of the future didn’t consider social progress and depicts women as the sole responsible person for their office/kitchen surrounded by technologies to make their life easier.
Throughout history, futures have tended to be shaped by white, well-connected, cis-male Americans or Europeans. This homogeneity has had the result of limiting the framing of the future, and, as a result, the actions then taken to shape it.
To develop better future visions we need to overcome our biases by including a broad range of viewpoints and inclusive perspectives.
2. Hollywood Magic, 1980s-2000s
It’s not enough to make things look cool, usability & accessibility are key
Hollywood movies (and games) have often imagined what the future might hold, and some of their predictions have been surprisingly accurate. Here are a few examples of my favorite Hollywood movies with future predictions that are true today:
- “Blade Runner” (1982): The classic sci-fi movie set in 2019 predicted many of the technological advances we now take for granted, such as video calling, voice-activated assistants, and the prevalence of advertising everywhere we go.
- “The Matrix” (1999): Envisioned a future where humans would be trapped in a simulated reality, controlled by machines. While we haven’t quite reached that level of technological sophistication, the movie’s exploration of the nature of reality and the possibilities of virtual worlds continue to be explored.
- “Minority Report” (2002): Set in 2054, this movie envisioned a future where crime could be predicted and prevented before it even happened. While we may not have ‘precrime’ units, many of the movie’s other predictions, such as gesture-based computing and personalized advertising, are used today.
- “Her” (2013): Imagined a world where people could fall in love with intelligent operating systems. While we may not have all fallen in love with them yet, voice-activated assistants such as Siri and Alexa have become increasingly sophisticated and human-like.
- “Black Panther” (2018): The kingdom of Wakanda is a wonderland of fantastic, futuristic technology. There are self-piloting aircraft; cars and planes that can be remotely operated through virtual reality (VR) interfaces, high-definition holographic displays, and magnetic levitation train systems. All mostly developed by badass Shuri.
Although many technologies seen in Hollywood movies are now real, some HCI (human-computer-interaction) advancements like gesture-based interfaces or voice-activated assistants haven’t been widely adopted in our daily lives. This is because of us, humans.
Our ability to learn new behaviors for interacting with machines is limited by our physical, mental, and emotional capacities, and we have a tendency to stick with what we know, even when it’s not the best option. Point in case the QWERTY keyboard layout that we’ve been using since 1874.
Design fictions need to be considerate of human abilities beyond our visual senses, especially in situations where touch and tactile feedback are crucial. For example, car manufacturers have gone back to using hybrid interfaces that combine digital and physical touch-points to adjust audio volume or temperature.
Make sure to always consider the human context in your design fiction, and especially the physical, mental, emotional, and sensory capabilities in these moments in time.
3. The house of the future, 1980s
Responsible futures may be less glamorous, but they are essential
Don’t let the beard distract you too much, Chriet Titulaer was a Dutch astronomer, science fiction author, tv-host and self-proclaimed futurist who was known for his predictions about technology and the future. In 1989, he designed and built a “House of the Future” in my hometown of Rosmalen, which was intended to showcase the latest advances in home automation and energy efficiency.
Inside the house, Titulaer incorporated a wide range of advanced technologies, including a computer-controlled lighting system, automated window shades, and a “smart” kitchen with appliances that could be operated remotely. The house also featured a home theater system with surround sound and large screen projector, which was connected to a computer network that could access a vast library of movies and television shows. In addition to the high-tech entertainment and convenience features, the House of the Future was designed to be highly sustainable. It had a solar-powered hot water system, a rainwater collection system, and a composting toilet to minimize water usage and waste.
While most of the technologies that Titulaer incorporated into the house are now commonplace, such as smart lighting and home theater systems, the House of the Future remains ahead of its time from a sustainability perspective.
In our futures we have to continue to consider broader responsibilities that move beyond the individual human and especially move beyond commonly addressed hedonistic motives for entertainment and convenience. Futures need to be both people and planet-centered and we’ll need to make these depictions compelling, enticing and desirable.
4. Philips Design Vision of the Future, 1995–2001
Too many Northstars can hinder success; focus is key
Philips Design, the in-house consultancy of consumer electronic’s company Philips was one of the few to publicly showcase their Design Fiction in great detail. Over the course of a decade they chose different topics from daily life in Vision of the Future (1996), the Home of the near Future project (1999), and the New Nomads (2001) that investigated wearable electronics and smart textiles.
Officially Philips shared these “narratives”, industrial design concepts and scenarios as predictions and to stimulate discussion and debate.
Although Philips officially never intended these Design Fictions to be part of their company or business roadmap it’s difficult not to think about what would have happened if the company would have placed its bets on some of these north stars, they could have been the likes of Apple… Meta… or Google.
My take, there were simply too many great depictions, too many to focus on and pursue. When you intend your future depiction or design fiction to be a Northstar for your a roadmap or initiative, you will have to curate, select and focus to make it a reality.
“Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes the time. Vision with action can change the world. “ — Joel A. Braker, author
5. Cyberpunk, 1980s — today
Our futures are shaped by our traditions, stories, values, and behavior
Kongkee, an award-winning animation director and visual artist, takes us back to the future in an odyssey more than 2,000 years in the making in an exhibit that I recently visited in the Asian Art Museum in San Francisco in January 2023. Part comic book, part motion picture, part meditation on history repeating, the immersive experience of Kongkee: Warring States Cyberpunk traces the Chinese poet Qu Yuan’s soul on a journey from the ancient Chu Kingdom to an imagined 21st century Asia of cyborgs, electric rock, and surprising romantic reunions.
“He brilliantly draws ancient artworks into his own dazzling vision, showing how the past haunts the present, but also offering us moments of connection and reconnection that make space for imagining what a vibrant strain of ‘Asian Futurism’ can look and feel like, one full of energy, music, and color that creatively entwine the enigma of the past with caution toward cutting-edge technologies yet to be discovered.”
As mentioned before, futures are culturally defined, they hold true to the audience that creates them and at the same time Kongkee highlights that our futures are also deeply intertwined with our stories of the past, and profoundly states that at times to be great at looking forward we also need to look back.
On our quest to develop compelling Northstars and foresight of the future as product developers, product managers and designers, we need to shape futures that are not only equitable, accessible, responsible, focused, and inclusive of rich stories, traditions and values but are also futures that inspire us to be better in our most simplest day to day mundane future lives.
I hope you will share your favorite ‘Mundane Futures’ in the comments below.
Marcelle van Beusekom is a design creative located in the Bay Area, where she creates meaningful products and multi-sensory user experiences and occasionally writes about design www.marcellevanbeusekom.com The views shared in her writing are her own.
