Microsoft could win the smartphone game.
Computers, beyond their product nature, are platforms. They unlock the ability for an individual or a household to consume software, electronic services, and virtual content (medias/information).
Granted the processing power is enough, it is safe to say that today’s smartphones and tablets serve that same purpose as computers, the only difference being on execution.
Developing the smartphone in the early 2000s was like reinventing the computer, but with user experience and accessibility constantly in mind. Unlike its elder brother, it was designed for a broader target, more than scientists and professionals. Smartphones strongly benefited from the feedback targeted towards consumer computers : a professional tool adapted to regular consumers. But at the same time, developing a smartphone meant having to cop with the size of the device. You couldn’t expect to have a heavy desktop operating system (OS) running on such a thin piece of hardware.
Reinventing the computer included reinventing the OS. Today’s Android and iOS systems were nearly built from scratch. Engineers had to rethink the system to have the smoothest and most intuitive user experience as possible. You can’t just use Windows or OSX on mobile platforms: the first issue being the compatibility of the computer processing unit’s architecture. Smartphones usually run on ARM architectures (more adapted to portable low consuming devices), while computers use x86 or x64 CPUs (much more power hungry and spacious hardware). Limitations of today’s mobile OSs directly come from the need of developers to frame and control user activities, in order to keep the system stable and reliable.
The new computer
But as these mobile systems become more and more advanced (and also thanks to the technology that followed on), it becomes obvious that today, they represent the ideal efficient consumer oriented system. Not only are they fast, user-friendly and reliable, but new functionalities add in every year at light speed. Functionalities that sometimes even pop on desktop operating systems (notifications, app stores, vocal assistants…).
The more capable they get, the clearer it seems that smartphones are the new “computer”.
The other tendency to keep in mind is the fact that smartphone hardware is reaching a peak, manufacturers are having trouble giving more added value to their flagships. Smartphone sales growth has been in decline since Q4 of 2018. The new era of smartphones will dawn when one of the market players will dare to step out of and redefine smartphone usage.
From a hardware perspective, we already pretty much maximized the essential potential of these devices. There are however, huge opportunities on the software side, that could open up the smartphone game to a whole new set of experiences.
Do you recognize this setup ? That’s Samsung DeX : a dock on which you plug a monitor, keyboard and mouse ; and as soon as you lay your phone on it, it becomes a fully usable computer. It never seemed to have really caught the public’s attention, the main reason being it is limited to what an android device has to offer, but it may as well be a sneak-peek at the computing of tomorrow.
The idea is quite explicit : having only one device or one platform to fulfill all your computing needs. It probably is the ideal setup on many levels :
- Users enjoy an all-in-one device or at least perfect compatibility between each of them.
- App Developers don’t need to worry about cross-platform development. An app would simply need to be developed once (following the right guidelines) and be accessible, at its best, on all types of device.
- The OS Developers can focus their efforts on one platform, greatly enhancing security and stability.
Samsung is not the only one who saw the potential of this idea. In fact we don’t need to look further than Apple or Google. Both have been pushing the boundaries of their mobile platforms to act and serve the purpose of desktop computers. Google had been trying to join computers and mobile devices for a while with their Chrome OS platform (very recently, the Android Q beta even suggests the implementation of a desktop mode). Apple on the other side had for long advertised its iPad as a viable replacement to the computer — “what’s a computer?”.
The major problem with the solutions these companies have is that it requires them to reinvent the computer. Google and Apple are building a bridge from mobile to desktop, but adapting a mobile system to a desktop experience is harder than adapting a desktop experience to a mobile system — processing power is no longer the great barrier. As good as they are, there is a reason mobile software are often “lite” versions of the more complete desktop offers.
But there is one company that doesn’t need to follow the same path as the competition. Empowered by its recent bitter defeat on the phone market, Microsoft has everything it needs to take on the new era of computing.
Microsoft’s renewal
2014, ex-CEO Steve Ballmer left Microsoft’s executive board, handing his position to the ambitious Satya Nadella. From that moment on, the company’s strategy shifted towards something much more open to the other actors of the market. It started by the release of the popular Office Suite on the Android and iOS application stores, followed by partnerships with RedHat and Amazon.
On the smartphone side, Nadella officially let go of the Windows Phone platform, focusing the effort on enhancing the Windows 10 experience. Hardware wise, Microsoft has been pursuing the successful Surface line-up, a well balanced mix of tablets and laptops — proving the efficiency of a multi-usage device.
Beyond better stability, functionalities and security, the Windows operating system underwent several improvements, making it overall a better solution for more mobile devices. A tablet mode appeared, as well as a vocal assistant and a dedicated applications store. Deeper into the system, Microsoft has been working on an ARM edition of Windows — meaning it is today able to run x86 (32 bits) software on small mobile (smartphone) processing units.
This is where everything links in.
“When you say we’ll make more phones, I’m sure we’ll make more phones, but they will not look like phones that are there today” - Satya Nadella (interview)
The reason Windows Phone failed is primarily because it saw the day in the Android-iOS duopoly — app developers had no incentive to bother developing for Windows Phone. Following a chicken-and-egg pattern, there were fewer developers, so fewer customers, so even fewer developers…
The Windows Desktop OS owns by itself 88.22% of the total desktop OS market. Its last version, Windows 10 (which powers 44.10% of desktops to this day), is steadily growing, and smartly evolving to continue dominating the market — recent news suggest Microsoft will be integrating the Linux Kernel inside of Windows, giving even less reasons for programmers and scientists to use any Linux distributions when they can just stay on Microsoft’s OS.
Doesn’t all this sound like a good incentive for you to develop your apps for Windows 10 ? One of the most widespread systems in the world, with multiple devices and architecture support ?
Microsoft could win the smartphone game.
Picture this : Microsoft could announce a smartphone, the “Surface Phone” to complement the Surface assortment. They could power it with Windows 10 on ARM (that can also run desktop 32 bit software, and maybe even more in the future). It would work just as well as Windows running on laptop, PCs or tablets. One unified platform running everywhere.
Developing your app for Windows would not only open it to the huge majority of laptops, tablets and desktops, but also then to a very promising and potentially growing smartphone market share.
And the icing on the cake : it would be perfectly reasonable to imagine this “Surface Phone” to have a dock like functionality. You would just need to lay the device on a small deck (connected to a monitor, keyboard and mouse), and have a perfectly usable Windows computer.
One unified platform for every needs and devices.
Microsoft doesn’t need to reinvent computing. While Apple and Google are building bridges to assault the desktop computing fortress, Microsoft simply has to adapt its already very complete and popular desktop system to lighter mobile devices.
Challenges ahead
Although I’m very confident about Microsoft’s strategy, it won’t be that easy to conquer the very tight smartphone market we have today. The major challenges to face would be the following :
- Keeping out of the “traditional” smartphone image — these new devices open up the user to a whole new computing experience and the marketing work needs to show it efficiently to the market.
- Facilitating the job of developers by providing SDKs, guidelines and other tools, following the example of Google with its recent Jetpack program. Users go where developers go.
- Having a more than decent hardware offer, providing at least as much quality features as the current leading smartphone companies.
- Keeping openness in mind at every level of the experience. You can’t pull out someone from its already comfortable ecosystem of services. The system should feel familiar, secure and free.
