“New Generation Soda” Has More Choices and a Lot More ‘POP’
The concept of what we consider to be a “soda,” is changing. For the past 20 years, soda has largely meant one thing: a sugary carbonated soft drink. An evolution — hopefully, a revolution — is underway.
“I believe that when my daughter becomes an adult there won’t be sugary soda.” A beverage brand founder I’ve worked with for years declared this during an interview with The Wall Street Journal in the mid-aughts.
It was a bold statement, and I like working with CEOs and entrepreneurs who have the risk tolerance to make bold statements. But it’s been 10 years since he made the declaration, and with the soda aisle still generating $35.4 billion in sales (according to IRI and other sources), it’s clear soda will be around well into his daughter’s thirties and possibly for his own grandchildren to sip.
Soda is dead! Long live soda!
We’ve been declaring the “death” of carbonated soft drinks like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo for a generation. Let’s track some see-saw declarations from analysts and the media over the past 15 years:
- “Coke, Pepsi Losing the Fizz” (March 8, 2005)
- “Soda Sales Fall for First Time in 20 Years” (March 9, 2006)
- “US Soda Sales Fell at Slower Rate Last Year” (March 25, 2010)
- “Soda Sales Expected To Rebound” (April 7, 2011)
- “Pepsi and Competitors Scramble as Soda Sales Drop” (May 15, 2012)
- “US soda sales fall to lowest since 1995” (March 31, 2014)
- “The epic collapse of American soda consumption” (March 10, 2016)
- “US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks are rebounding” (May 31, 2018)
- “PepsiCo Sales Get Lift from Rebound in Soda” (April 17, 2019)
- “Soda Comeback Drives Sales Gains at Coca-Cola” (October 18, 2019)
- “Coca-Cola Sales Fall 28%, but It Says the Worst Is Over” (July 21, 2020)
It’s an exhausting list, isn’t it? And it’s a fraction of the epitaphs declaring either soda’s end… or marveling at its regular rebounds. And the category is still strong, despite 20 years of declines. Both Coca-Cola and Pepsi remain in our collective consciousness and on store shelves around the globe. It’s one of the longest “farewells” in cpg history, and one that won’t end soon.
Even with the July 21, 2020 news that Coca-Cola plans to discontinue some of its “zombie brands”, a buzzy term apparently used to describe the products no one wants to buy or worse, aren’t profitable, we already know the majority of Coke-branded soda offerings will not be amongst those that are unplugged. And on the same day Coca-Cola talked zombies, it also disclosed that sales of Coke in China, Southeast Asia and Western Europe “continue to improve.”
Despite the grim implications about our society’s relationship with sugary soda, the soda market is moving toward a better place, with steady innovation that leads to category evolution. I’m happy to work with brands and products involved in that movement, and have my own small part it in.
The “new generation” soda trend
Professionally, I’ve been taking about the convergence of sugary soda, no-to-low sugar sparkling waters, lower calorie or ‘natural’ energy drinks, and healthier, fizzy beverages like kombucha, since 2017. Collectively, they represent forces redefining the consumer sentiment of what can be considered a soda. Whether or not this convergence changes the emotional connection generations of consumers still have with soda, is another story and another timeline. And like all major cpg shifts with lasting consumer resonance, the evolution of what we consider a soda is a slow and steady one that requires innovative start-ups and the entrepreneurs behind them to understand they’re building a category of ‘better soda,’ together. No one single brand will change Americans’ perception of what a soda is. But a group of new generation soda brands emphasizing better formulation and ingredients can build the critical mass that consumers (and retailers) need to see and experience, to support this sea change.
It’s a evolution that faces challenges based on (what else?) the impact of Covid. In late May 2020 Wegmans, renowned for its wide selection of products including those from emerging brands and categories, trimmed its product assortment by 40%, according to The Wall Street Journal. And they’re not the only grocer to do so. That diminishment of selection will put pressure on new products, including beverages, to sell faster and in greater quantities than pre-Covid, if they want to hold onto their newly acquired shelf space.
What qualifies as “new generation” soda
There are formulaic tenets to a new generation soda. Lower sugar and a cleaner ingredient panel are obvious prices of entry. And while sparkling water has made a bid to be a soda alternative, most do not qualify as examples of new generation sodas. Take LaCroix. This is only ever a sparkling water brand in my opinion. Yet Spindrift provides a familiar, soda-like experience and while it’s technically categorized as a sparkling water, it qualifies as a new generation soda.
Soda in our collective consciousness
It’s a fine line that will continue to be walked the next few years as new brands carve out their own market within soda. And it’s tied to flavors, mouth feel, the addition of pulp and other dynamic factors including strong branding and evokes, “soda.” Why has this evolution been so slow? Because sugary soda occupies a singular and deeply emotional space in our consciousness tied to childhood, sports, music, vacations and other triggers for rich and nostalgic memories.
Our go-to mental reference for a soda is a chilled, often darker colored, strongly carbonated drink that we assume will feel refreshing and taste sweet. In fact, that “rush of sweetness [also] appears to activate the same reward centers in the brain as drugs,” according to Gary Wenk, a neuroscience authority and author.
For generations, the notion of an iced-cold Coca-Cola in a glass bottle is a staple of summer days at the beach. That psychology has been pounded into our heads for generations, and even if you’ve never enjoyed a Coke on a breezy day at the shore, the very reference is iconic and sets a mood. And that’s part of the secret to the soda experience: it evokes a mood and puts us in a mind-state. Remember Coke’s “Taste the Feeling” campaign from as recently as 2016 — all mood, all sentiment.
The earliest ads that made us love soda, more
Ever since football star ‘Mean’ Joe Green’s commercial for Coca-Cola in 1979, sugary soda has been sold to us as an emotionally charged, generation-spanning source of optimism and refreshment. Beverage marketers elevated that conversation in the 1980s with the endorsements of pop music superstars like Michael Jackson and Whitney Houston in their commercials and created a marketing strategy that has barely changed in four decades (something I’ve written about before on Medium). The goal of that strategy: create an positively energized, emotionally transportive moment with earworm beats and lyrics, and the ritual of slugging down a sugary soda.
“Ever since football star ‘Mean’ Joe Green’s commercial for Coca-Cola in 1979, sugary soda has been sold to us as an emotionally charged, generation-spanning source of optimism and refreshment.”
The demonization of sugar in relationship to soda is a numbing dialogue, specifically when traditional carbonated soft drinks still occupies an entire aisle of the store. Most people know too much sugar isn’t good for them. But it hasn’t stopped them from enjoying sugary drinks or the familiar taste of iconic sodas, even in their “diet” or “zero” forms. Sitting in a shuttle bus from the Dodger Stadium parking lot to the halls of Expo West in 2018, I sat next to three natural foods buyers from leading groceries. What were they drinking? Cans of Diet Coke and regular Coke.
But new generation sodas — that remind us of the taste of iconic soda brands and that first emotional connection drinking them — are steadily emerging. They represent an important category of beverage that retailers and the health-conscious amongst us should nurture, with discipline and repetition. Because I have had the good fortune of working with so many of the top emerging beverage brands, some of these new generation sodas, are clients. I will be transparent about the brands I discuss and if I work with them, and it should not diminish their stature in this important movement.
OLIPOP. I started working with this ‘digestive tonic’ brand at the beginning of 2019. Their co-founder, David Lester, contacted me out of the blue about working together. He described their concept and I asked him to send me samples. He did, and I was unduly impressed. OLIPOP entered the market with an important mission of improving gut health (the microbiome) through a soda experience, and a scant few months into their Southern California launch were selling upwards of 40 cases per week, per store, at natural foods icon Erewhon. If you’re a stranger to beverage sales, that figure might seem small. As far as beverage start-up sales are concerned, it’s epic. But as the brand scales nationally, it’s often the nostalgic soda experience that helps drive OLPOP’s enviable consumer connection. Ben Goodwin, the brand’s co-founder and a self-taught food scientist, has identified a formulation process that starts with our positive, emotionally-charged memories about food and drink. Those memories, fuel his his creation of OLIPOP’s flavors, through the lens of functional ingredients and an emphasis on prebiotic dietary fiber.
Why you should drink it: Because the familiar taste profiles may help wean you off mass market sodas.
What you’ll get from it: An introduction to the power of soluble plant-based fiber (prebiotics) that supports gut health. Americans don’t know enough about either, and OLIPOP and authors like Katherine Harmon Courage have a lot to teach us.
Why it’s going to become a player in new generation soda: Because it has the taste, quality, formulation and connective brand optics (how cute does that can of OLIPOP look on Instagram) to help you transition easily, into “better for you.”
OLIPOP’s first digital ad, which debuted in August 2020 on the brand’s social media channels, below.
Health-Ade Booch Pop. The new soda line’s parent company, Health-Ade, is also a client. The audacious concept of introducing a soda with a foundational element of kombucha, distinguishes Health-Ade Booch Pop immediately. Where consumers need to meet the brand half way, is embracing that innovation without preconceived notion, because kombucha has a specific taste profile. Kombucha became a billion-dollar beverage category in record speed. But as a wave of brands followed pioneers like GT’s Living Foods and Health-Ade into the category, the boundaries of what kombucha is as a beverage experience, are starting to blur. And that sentiment informs the new generation soda movement. Every movement needs a voice. Health-Ade Booch Pop’s voice? Co-founder Daina Trout. With a formal education in nutrition, a proclivity for speaking her mind, and a growing dialogue with working mothers and female leaders across the country, Daina may become a vocal figure in defining healthier soda in the next decade. The sodas just launched in July 2020.
Why you should drink it: The formulations are unique, delicious, and have the bubbly mouth feel of traditional soda. The relationship between our expectation of how something might taste, vs. how it actually tastes, the memories that taste experience triggers, and how it makes us feel emotionally in the present, is a critical part of embracing food and drink. Health-Ade Booch Pop is formulated with this in mind and is the kind of drink that straddles a number of beverage categories and consumer expectations competently.
What you’ll get from it: A rich-tasting soda experience (70% less calories and 80% less sugar on average, than traditional soda) and a new way to appreciate the flavor cues and benefits of kombucha as an ingredient in a drink, vs. being the entire drink.
Why it’s going to become a player in new generation soda: Because the Health-Ade brand has the presence nationally, to innovate at this level, and because this drink may be a bridge between die-hard soda drinkers and kombucha lovers.
Poppi. I don’t have a deep knowledge of this beverage line, especially since its re-brand at the start of 2020 from its previous name “Mother”, when the founders competed on “Shark Tank.” But I am fluent in the conversation of “apple cider vinegar” and its purported benefits. Amusingly, the first time I encountered the formulation of apple cider vinegar was in a shampoo, not a beverage. And unfortunately, I am not personally a fan of apple cider vinegar’s taste profile. None of that, however, should minimize Poppi’s potential status as a new generation soda.
Why you should drink it: Because you’re an apple cider vinegar devotee seeking a healthier, soda-like experience.
What you’ll get from it: Healthier refreshment than a traditional sugary soda, for sure.
Culture Pop. This is a brand new entry into new generation soda, and the fourth brand to use “pop” in its name. I haven’t tried this beverage yet, but include it because it’s further evidence of this new generation soda pop movement.
There are now four ‘new generation’ sodas with ‘POP’ in their name
Why do they all have “pop” in their name? Because most everyone understands what you’re describing, when you say “soda pop.”
Which of these brands takes a major leadership position in new generation soda, is still up in the air. But all have a part in building an important, and still nascent, beverage sub-category that requires ongoing, connective marketing and stronger retailer support to have a profound and lasting impact on the concept of soda.
UPDATE
Beverage industry trade media leader BevNET.com offers an update on this trend (October 15, 2020), here (paywall).
