The 4 Possible Scenarios For Bitcoin In The Long Term
Bitcoin Leaves No One Indifferent
This is obvious, but I think it is important to point this out.
Some are absolute supporters of the Bitcoin and the revolution it represents. For them, Bitcoin is a real opportunity to restore a financial system fully decentralized and based on real trust. Among these supporters are the famous HODLERS who conscientiously accumulate Bitcoin month after month, whatever its price, because they are convinced that its price will reach new heights in the future.
On the other hand, there are central bankers, economists and politicians who see Bitcoin as a major risk. Indeed, the mass adoption of Bitcoin could clearly undermine their power to create infinite money.
Then there are the media that take advantage of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to make sensational headlines without bothering to understand the ins and outs of this revolutionary technology.
Finally, in the midst of all this, the general public is not sure what to think of a Bitcoin whose excessive volatility and potential role in money laundering are constantly being highlighted. Thus, most people are clearly unaware of the potential of Bitcoin and how it could well change their lives in the future.
The Future Price Of Bitcoin Makes You Fantasize
Whatever your position on Bitcoin, I’m sure there’s at least one thing that intrigues you about Bitcoin. I know because this thing intrigues almost everyone on Earth.
Everyone is wondering what the price of Bitcoin will be in the future.
The future price of Bitcoin makes you fantasize. Thus, everyone has a small prognosis: from Bitcoin influencers to economists, everyone seems to have their own opinion on the issue.
A well-known venture capitalist, with significant investments in Baidu, Skype and Tesla, Tim Draper has believed in Bitcoin for a very long time and that is why he bought 30,000 BTC in June 2014 for example. Its predictions on the future price of Bitcoin are therefore necessarily influenced.
Tim Draper predicts that a Bitcoin will be worth $250,000 in 2022!
Bobby Lee, CEO of BTC China, sees an even brighter future for Bitcoin as he predicts a price of $1 million in 2028. The truth is that no one can predict with certainty the price of Bitcoin. Me included, of course.
On the other hand, it is possible to imagine potential scenarios for the future of Bitcoin. So here are my 4 potential major scenarios for Bitcoin in the long term.
1. Bitcoin Becomes A Global Reserve Currency
Bitcoin HODLERS are convinced that Bitcoin will become a global reserve currency and replace the US dollar in the future. The real HODLERS of the Bitcoin would become immensely rich if this scenario were to come true in the long term.
The earliest HODLERS would even be billionaires if Bitcoin became a global reserve currency.
For this scenario to happen, there would have to be a real mass adoption of Bitcoin by the general public. Bitcoin would then be accepted by all merchants around the world as well as the US dollar and other fiat currencies.
4 Obstacles To Bitcoin Mass Adoption
There are others, but these are clearly the 4 major obstacles.
The fact that Bitcoin is used by the greatest number of people as a medium of exchange and a means of payment makes its price much higher. The very high volume of transactions generated by the mass adoption of Bitcoin makes it possible to maintain transaction fees at acceptable prices even though the reward allowed to Bitcoin miners tends towards zero.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision then becomes reality. As a reminder, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin describes it as follows in his document entitled “A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”:
“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”
This scenario is not currently relevant at the end of 2019 since many Bitcoin owners are just in the logic to accumulate BTC or using it as a simple speculative instrument in order to generate maximum profits.
2. The Scarcity Of Bitcoin Is Making Investors Happy With A Price That Continues To Rise Up
The Bitcoin Blockchain has a maximum quantity of 21 million BTC that can be mined. This scarcity of Bitcoin is accentuated by the fact that it is estimated that nearly 4 million BTC would be lost forever!
In reality, the quantity of Bitcoins in circulation and usable in 2140 will be at best 17 million.
Bitcoin’s Maximum Supply Is Now Well Below 21 Million
This gives even more value to Bitcoin for the future.
With the growing success of Bitcoin, more and more people will want to own it. Successive Bitcoin Halvings will have reduced each time a little more the quantity of new Bitcoins rewarding miners for validating transactions. In fact, the price of Bitcoin will constantly rise forever driven by strong public demand.
However, this strong demand from the general public concerns the speculative side of Bitcoin and not its use as a medium of exchange.
More and more merchants are accepting Bitcoin as a payment method. Nevertheless, due to transaction fees that have become exorbitant following the virtual disappearance of the Bitcoin reward granted to miners validating transactions, most people prefer to accumulate Bitcoins before reselling them for profits.
Bitcoin becomes mainly a security in this scenario which goes against the original vision of its creator.
3. Bitcoin Becomes Digital Gold
Existing in known finite supply and to be extracted, Bitcoin has always been compared to gold. For many economists, Bitcoin is digital gold or gold 2.0. As such, Bitcoin is considered a commodity by U.S. regulators.
Bitcoin is still young, which explains the very high current volatility of its price.
As time goes by, Bitcoin’s price continues to rise after several rounds of bullish and bearish markets. Over time, its price began to stabilize in the same way as the price of gold, which is quite stable compared to that of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin plays a store of value role.
4. Bitcoin Is Falling Into Oblivion
The last scenario is the most unlikely for me. Nevertheless, I must mention it because it remains a possibility. In the future, Bitcoin could simply be forgotten. Its price would fall sharply to the point of no longer being worth much.
The Bitcoin HODLERS would then be the big losers as well as their dream of becoming billionaires!
What could cause this virtual disappearance of Bitcoin?
First, its replacement by another cryptocurrency at the top of the market. There is no shortage of competitors, from Ethereum to Ripple, EOS or Bitcoin Cash.
Ethereum, Ripple, IOTA And All Other Cryptocurrencies Are Direct Competitors Of Bitcoin
Bitcoin will have to evolve to maintain its dominant position in the future.
A newcomer solving the problem of scalability of Bitcoin and convincing a larger number of users of its utility is not to be totally excluded either.
By losing its user base, the Bitcoin would have little left and its first-mover advantage would be of no help to it.
The second possibility is that regulators of the major developed countries have successfully ended the Bitcoin adventure. Its decentralized side must protect it from this, but who knows, we have to consider the worst for this scenario.
Finally, the last possibility is that Bitcoin never achieves its full potential due to users who prefer to use it only for speculative purposes. Indeed, many miss out on the revolution it embodies because of too much greed in my opinion.
What is the future of Bitcoin? What will the price of Bitcoin be in 5, 10 or 50 years? All these questions are raised daily within the Bitcoin community but also more broadly with the general public.
No one can really answer these questions with certainty and that is what makes life so charming. Although Bitcoin may be the greatest technological revolution since the Internet appeared, there is no guarantee that it will realize its full potential by establishing itself as a global reserve currency alongside, or instead of, the US dollar.
This is precisely what makes Bitcoin so exciting to follow on a daily basis: the wildest dreams are allowed for its future but nothing is guaranteed and the community will have to fight every day to let Bitcoin reaching its full potential one day.