The Competition for 5G
THE BATTLE OF BARCELONA
A battle between U.S. officials and China’s Huawei is being played out in the city of Barcelona in Spain. Hailing from Washington, an American delegation has been sent to the city’s grand event, the Mobile World Congress. Attracting over 100,000 professionals from the telecommunications industry, this event is the biggest of its kind and one of the largest annual events for the Chinese telecom giant Huawei.
Present at the Mobile Congress are representatives from the Department of Defence, Department of Commerce, and the Department of State — all coordinating a huge lobbying push on the United States’ European allies. They hope to convince the participants of the Congress to dismiss Huawei’s leading 5G communications technology due to security concerns.
Dubbed the “Battle of Barcelona,” Huawei is not giving up without a fight in this showdown. The company has stated that the United State’s attack is politically motivated and that there is no evidence to suggest that the company spied or conducted cyber attacks on behalf of the Chinese government. The company also asserts that spying on people would destroy customers’ trust and consequently ruin the business. Anticipating pushback from the largest economy in the world, Huawei has markedly stepped up its rhetoric, using a more aggressive tone. Its founder has accepted a series of media interviews, saying that the United States will not be able to crush Huawei. At the Mobile World Congress, the company has also booked out a huge stand, unveiling its new generation of mobile phones in its usual glitzy fashion.
The U.S government has been leveraging all its political and diplomatic influence to pressure Huawei, using every tool at its disposal — including both judicial and administrative powers, as well as a host of other unscrupulous means — to disrupt the business operations of Huawei and its partners
- Instructing law enforcement to threaten, menace, coerce, entice, and incite both current and former Huawei employees to turn against the company and work for them
- Unlawfully searching, detaining, and even arresting Huawei employees and Huawei partners
- Attempting entrapment, or pretending to be Huawei employees to establish legal pretense for unfounded accusations against the company
- Launching cyberattacks to infiltrate Huawei’s intranet and internal information systems
- Sending FBI agents to the homes of Huawei employees and pressuring them to collect information on the company
- Mobilizing and conspiring with companies that work with Huawei, or have a business conflict with Huawei, to bring unsubstantiated accusations against the company
- Launching investigations based on false media reports that target the company
- Digging up old civil cases that have already been settled, and selectively launching criminal investigations or filing criminal charges against Huawei based on claims of technology theft
- Obstructing normal business activities and technical communications through intimidation, denying visas, detaining shipment, etc.
The fact remains that none of Huawei’s core technology has been the subject of any criminal case brought against the company, and none of the accusations levied by the US government have been supported with sufficient evidence.
However, the challenge for Huawei is that its business operations may lie in the hands of public opinion and international politics. The fate of the company lies in the future development of US-China relations, international public opinion, and trends in 5G development. The question remains whether countries will fall into diametrically opposing camps reminiscent of the Cold War, as the standards of 5G continue becoming standardized and implemented across the world.
The development of 5G will be a point of major contention between the United States and China. Currently, Huawei — a Chinese company — holds the largest number of patents pertaining to 5G. The United States does not have a home-grown telecommunications company capable to develop the technology needed for 5G, and the country continues to rely on inferior European counterparts Nokia and Ericsson. 5G promises major economic gains in all industries, enabling also the collection of a greater quantity of data throughout society and speeding up the implementation of artificial intelligence. China’s massive population, forward-thinking central government, and prowess in 5G may give it a boost in its race with the United States — a good reason for the United States to remain wary.
ERAS OF CHANGE
A good analogy to the development and influence of 5G on society would be the urban growth that U.S. cities have experienced over the past two centuries. Just as modes of transport fundamentally shaped the design of U.S. cities over the years, 5G has the power to catalyze paradigm shifts in the way humans interact with each other and with the world.
The urban landscape of 19th century America was drastically different than the urban metropolises of today like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. The “walking city” of the time featured highly compact cities, characterized by an intermingling of residences and workplaces. It was a world without communicating, without traffic, and everyone walked to work. They would walk to work, go to open markets for buying and selling goods, and parade grounds for special occasions. Other than horseback travel, there were very few other ways to traverse the city.
However, during the “streetcar era” between 1880 and 1920, the urban landscape of America changed once again, as industrialization began to pick up speed in American cities. Low-fare electric streetcars replaced the horsecar, offering public transportation to a wide ridership. Light rail tracks radiated out from the center of the city, and urban growth concentrated on these lines of transportation. Midst this change in transportation technology, the lives of American citizens also began to change. Cities became larger as people could now live farther area from their place of work, migrants entered cities, and there was a greater separating between where they worked and where they lived.
However, the American changed again forever after the introduction of the automobile in the 20th century. Cities became even larger, and urban sprawl grew. The American middle class could now live farther away from the city center, where the cost of living was expensive. They now escaped inner-city congestion and pollution by living in the suburbs. Ever since, the American urban landscape changed forever, as cities are designed around cars. A web of highways crisscrosses the country, creating large cities like Los Angeles or Houston where pedestrians have become endangered species.
This is analogous to how widespread implementation of technology advances can influence the way we live forever. As technologies become more advanced, humans have adapted their lives around it, by designing different cities, choosing how to spend their time, and how they live their lives. Due to the introduction of the automobile, the American cities today are urban sprawls connected with highways and the car as the major form of transportation
The same phenomenon is true in the tech world. Humans have changed the way they live based on the changing development of tech in the world. One is unable to escape this trend and is pulled along with the societal changes. People take the internet for granted these days, and having a fast 4G instantaneous connection to the internet in our pocket is the norm in our lives and in our work. Soon 5G will become the norms in our lives, not only giving us far greater connection speeds in our smartphones but also powering the intelligence of everyday objects we interact with, as part of the Internet of Things.
The definition of soft power is “a persuasive approach to international relations, typically involving the use of economic or cultural influence,” which is generally used in the realm of international relations. However, the same concept of soft power can apply in the area of technology. Certain disruptive technologies have the ability to change the norms of how we live our lives, and there is a great amount of power that comes to the creator of this norm-changing technology.
Take, the smartphone for example. Apple, which has recently been crowned the most valuable publicly-traded company in the world, built its success on its defining innovation of the original iPhone. After the creation of the first iPhone, a rising tide in smartphones swept over the world, and today, almost everyone owns an iPhone. As the original creator of the iPhone, Apple holds unprecedented power. Essentially, whoever sets the trend gets to rule.
It took humans millions of years of continuous thinking and innovation to discover electricity in 1879. And in the one hundred years between electricity, humans have discovered nuclear power, space flight, the internet, and artificial intelligence. Today, humans are sending robots to explore other stars, growing organisms in space, to inhabiting other planets in our solar system! Indeed, the speed of technological growth has been dizzying, and it is a miracle that you who are reading this book is born in this era of tremendous change at crossroads. Humans now have the responsibility of tearing through this opening and carve out a brighter future for all mankind. Now, change is becoming the norm as new disruptive technological norms are set to continue rewriting the rules of this world.
5G is one of the big technologies that are going to change the way that we live again, harkening an era of interconnectedness that some have described as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Due to the vastly increased wireless bandwidth that will be made widely available with the deployment of 5G telecommunications technology, many things will become available. From self-driving cars to remote surgery, to the Internet of Things, there will be wide-ranging social impacts in every aspect of our lives from our lives to our work. The digital landscape of our lives will change, and the way we navigate the world with technology will change.
In addition to the increasing interconnectedness that will be brought on by 5G connections, aspects of our lives and society will become far more productive. As tools and methods become more technologically integrated, there will be greater room for automation and the off-loading of data storage and processing power. Imagine a phone that only relies on an internet connection that is connected to a centralized supercomputer that is able to produce calculations at amazing speeds. Then, the devices that we use everyone simply become a conduit of information between a more efficient centralized command and our sensory systems. Furthermore, in industries like manufacturing and energy, the increased connectivity and low-latency of 5g connectivity allow for greater automation of these productive industries.
Thus, 5G becomes an issue of hard power for a country. A country with a widely-adopted 5G network will experience many societal changes and increased efficiency throughout its industries. 5G bandwidth is also the linchpin to other new fields of growth such as big data and artificial intelligence. Thus, effectively, whoever has 5G has the power to rule the world, as it increases the pace of growth of a country, thereby increasing the size of its coffers. Technological change is very powerful, from the soft power of changing tech standards to the hard power of national productivity that is brought on by changes, increasing a country’s international competitiveness.
The vanguard of 5G research, development, and integration will come from the private sector. Namely, it will be the roles of telecommunications equipment manufacturers and regional telecom carriers to fulfill massive 5G integration. As of now, Huawei is the undisputed leader in 5G technologies research and development, holding the most “standard essential patents,” amounting up to 1,500 patents followed by Nokia, Samsung, and LG.
Having spent billions of dollars into research and development, Huawei has amassed a war chest of patents, in what some have called a form of basic “weapons of economic warfare.” The company has a total portfolio of active patents and published applications of over 100,000, and many of them are in areas that are essential to the development and implementation of 5G.
Just like how Qualcomm was a leader in the 2G and 3G fields with its innovations in GSM and CDMA and the number of industry-defining patents that this company holds, Huawei is set to become its contemporary in the 5G age, defining the standards of technology that can have implications on its technological soft power. Seeing the wide-ranging effects of new generation interconnectivity, Huawei, in 2019 has opened up a fifth business group in the company that will be responsible for self-driving automobiles, in addition to its 4 other traditional business groups (Carrier Network, Enterprise, Consumer, Cloud). In fact, the company is currently working with German car manufacturer Audi to test technology that would power self-driving cars that will be sold in China.
Due to the soft power and hard power ramifications of 5G, technology is becoming increasingly a matter of politics. Fittingly, ZTE and Huawei, both Chinese companies in the telecommunications field, have become targets of U.S. sanctions as part of the larger picture of the technological competition between the two largest global economies. Rather like technologies like railroads or cars that have positive benefits to all of society. Standards of technology like 5G may not have any free-riders, and in fact, it can be controlled by a few individuals and countries. In order to reap the benefits of new technologies or lest being left behind, industries and countries will need to follow the footsteps of the pioneer in this field. The pioneer has a lot to gain in terms of setting the standards of something like 5G. And, unfortunately for the United States, which has traditionally held a large monopoly on cutting-edge technology development, China is catching up.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS STANDARDS BEFORE 5G
Standards of technology are at the heart of the success of the telecommunications industry. These standards have evolved in an increasingly social world, spurred on by academic research conducted by researchers and designers whose decisions affect system architecture down to the smallest details.
Throughout different eras of the past, based on different political environments, technology has developed differently, and factionalization has historically been rendered in the telecommunications industry. During the 2G era, wireless communications networks have been divided into the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) and CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) standards. The vast majority of the world has utilized the GSM standard, which features the use of SIM cards in phones. However, The United States and Russia, in the 2G era, utilized the CDMA standard, which featured the use of phones tied to the carrier’s networks. The GSM and CDMA standards show that the world is split in two in terms of technology use. This division continued on to the 3G era.
During the time of 3G telecommunications, the world is divided into three factions: WCDMA and CDMA2000 as well as TD-SCDMA, which are used by Europe, the United States, and China respectively. The three standards of WCDMS, CDMA2000, and TD-CDMA were used by different mobile carriers in these countries. Some phones were not designed to work in all ecosystems and were thus tied to a specific geographic location. After the rise of digital circuits and wireless technologies in the 1990s, the United States believed that it could promote the use of U.S.-developed CDMA and WIMAX technologies. However, the standard of CDMA was developed too advanced by Qualcomm, and telecommunications operators around the world would not support it. The United States also actively promoted the application of WIMAX technology but failed.
From the ashes of U.S. efforts in creating its own widely-used telecommunications protocol came the 3GPP organization, which stands for the 3rd Generation Partnership Project. This is an international standards organization that is responsible for developing many mobile protocols that are used today. Through a partnership of U.S., Japanese, European, Indian, South Korean, and Chinese organizations, the 3GPP aims to determine the general policy and strategy of the organizations’ developments.
Through the 3GPP, European and Chinese researchers came together to create international communications protocols, allowing Chinese researchers to learn and promoting the rise of Chinese equipment manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE. The failure of the United States in unilaterally developing its standards led to the 3GPP, enabling international collaboration on telecommunications standards. This development helped support the Chinese industry.
THE RACE FOR 5G ADOPTION
A one-size-fits-all standard of 5G communications has not been finalized by researchers yet, meaning that the perfect 5G standard currently does not exist. Presently, two camps exist in the 5G standards development, represented by Huawei in China and Qualcomm in the United States. Tensions and anxieties are high. The competition between the two factions is exacerbated by political and economic tensions between the United States and China as well as the media coverage on the importance of 5G.
In late 2019, companies, faced with market competition, are beginning to implement what they see as a suitable standard of 5G telecommunications, showing signs that the world is moving to different standards in different geographic localities. In the future, a sort of digital “iron curtain” may appear, as different parts of the world start to utilize different standards of 5G communications, with Huawei representing China and Qualcomm representing the United States and its allies.
China is putting massive amounts of resources into the development of standards, protocols, and ecosystems for next-generation technologies. Knowing that it will face difficulty and ire from the United States indirectly competing in more fundamental technologies such as chip-creation and computer operating systems, the country is focusing on the standards of the future. 5G is a ripe ground for new ecosystems to appear, ones that may be created by China. Consequently, the Chinese government is using money to buy time in its 5G competition against the United States and the West, setting off a tsunami of 5G development and adoption.
On June 6, 2019, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the first batch of 5G licenses, giving them to China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, and China Radio and Television. It plans to finish large-scale commercialization of 5G technologies in 2020, allowing the masses to access 5G connections. Unlike the United States, China’s unique style of authoritarian governance allows it to carry out public projects at a blinding pace, putting the power of the government behind commercial endeavors. In the 2G to 4G era, China built seven million base stations, and it plans to upgrade currently existing base stations into 5G-enabled stations.
Due to the technical constraints of 5G telecommunications, the number of base stations must increase in order to cover the same area as 4G connections. Sometimes, it will require five times as many base stations compared to 4G, increasing the time and costs for construction. In 2019, China has already begun to take the lead, having constructed 400,000 5G base stations in the country, 10 times as many as the United States.
Two reasons exist for why the United States is currently lagging behind China in the adoption of 5G base stations. In a recent report created by the Department of Defense, it is asserted that one reason is due to the U.S. military’s occupation of certain band frequencies. The reservation of certain telecommunications frequencies for the military pushes 5G telecom operators to use a more limited frequency, which has a weaker penetration rate. Hence, a greater number of 5G base stations are required to cover an area in the United States as compared to China, increasing the costs of construction. Furthermore, the United States currently does not have a home-grown telecommunications equipment manufacturer like China’s Huawei. The country must rely on Europe’s Ericsson or Nokia to fulfill the entire 5G industrial chain.
BANNING CHINESE 5G
In August of 2018, US President Donald Trump authorized a bill banning its government’s use of Huawei and ZTE technology as part of the broader Defence Authorization Act. US allies, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the United Kingdom have also followed suit, with some making public their policy of banning Huawei from future 5G networks and some expressing concern over the use of Huawei’s equipment in telecommunications networks. Slowly, the roll-out of new telecommunications networks is becoming a proxy of US-China competition, as the United States continues to punish Chinese manufacturers as well as push other governments to minimize Chinese influence in their countries.
What are the implications of the international politics of 5G development and implementation, and why is the United States pressuring its allies? The answer lies in the geoeconomics of 5G. The implementation of 5G is a zero-sum economic game — as viewed by the United States and China — rather than a win-win situation where technological advances are shared for mutual gain, the geoeconomics perspective asserts that wide-spread 5G implementation will shift the balance between the world’s two most advanced economies. 5G will lead to massive digitization of society, transforming industry and data analytics. Widespread implementation empowers both producers and consumers to become more efficient.
Moreover, 5G implementation by either the United States and China will empower the two countries to replicate similar models in other countries, creating political clout in the form of geopolitical, economic, and technological influence. Through its lead in the cultivation of 5G technologies and standards, China, for instance, can influence its periphery states, endowing them with superior Chinese technology in exchange for political or economic leverage. Hence, 5G has the potential to redraw the lines between Chinese and American camps, especially in Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia.
Due to the political and economic ramifications of 5G network proliferation, the United States has a fundamental deep distrust towards any concrete Chinese practices. This has precipitated the concern that the United States is susceptible to Chinese cyber espionage, or even subject to the disruption of critical cyber-infrastructure that may paralyze the nation. The 5G issue is thus a conduit through which U.S. fears of Chinese hegemony is materializing, and the outcome of 5G could become an important proxy to assess the state of the U.S.-China bilateral relationship — or the depth of how icy it could get.
Concerns over cybersecurity have driven states to coalesce around US leadership and policy on the future of 5G networks. Indeed, the countries that have publicly adopted the US position on 5G and Huawei are either their allies or close partners. It is only a matter of time before both the United States and China separately gather allies to take a position on the issue of incorporating Huawei’s technology into 5G networks.
States that have heretofore been sitting on the fence and unwilling to commit to either Chinese or American policy on the matter could be forced to take a stand under intense diplomatic pressure. This would specifically apply to states like South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam — countries that are ostensibly strong U.S. military allies or close partners, but which also fall within Beijing’s political influences due to their proximity to the middle kingdom. Through the 5G issue, it is likely that both superpowers will take stock of and develop a clearer picture of where each country — Asian or otherwise — stands on the broader U.S.-China geopolitical chessboard.
