The Elevator Virus
As we look for rhyme and reason to the coronavirus, New York City’s outbreak puts the spotlight on population density as a seed factor. In part, widespread public transit gives an opportunity for the virus to spread, and a MIT paper claims it to be a “major disseminator”.
It makes perfect sense. As of 2014, the New York City metro had more public transit users than the complete ridership of the next nine American metros combined. These are enclosed spaces shared by many daily, and we know the virus can persist in the air. With this in mind, it is a wonder that elevators have not been studied more regarding virus behavior.
Despite not being thought of as public transit, elevators provide the same service as a means to moving people. For instance, in New York City, based on calculations made from state reports, there are 12.5 billion annual elevator rides. This accounts for five times more passenger traffic than what the city’s subways and buses serve.
The average elevator rider encounters 15 strangers each day in the lift. Considering the amount of people that ride and touch buttons, the elevator has potential to be very dangerous. For example, New York City has over 80,000 elevators — a total greater than Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington D.C., and Miami combined.
Out of the 12 states with the most coronavirus cases, New York and New Jersey hold 50 percent of infections despite comprising only 20 percent of the group’s population. Massachusetts, the state with the third-most cases, has more than 40,000 elevators. This is equal to the number of elevators in Chicago and Los Angeles, combined. As of April 28th, Massachusetts, despite having 8 million less people, has identified slightly more coronavirus cases and deaths than the combination of Cook County and LA County.
The relationship between coronavirus and elevators is by no means concrete, but looking at other countries makes one curious. According to Quartz, as of 2014, Spain and Italy operated the most elevators per-capita in the world.
Excluding some Asian countries , and the “Western Europe” umbrella, the seven countries with the most elevators per-capita are all in the top-10 for aggregate infections. Please note the other two countries in the top-10 — Germany and the United Kingdom — can be projected to have many elevators as well.
Accuracy of the data must be taken with caution. However, correlation between infection rates and elevator rates appears and it may be greater than the correlation of cases to public transit usage.
For instance, Italy has the highest rate of car ownership in the EU other than Luxembourg, a significantly less populated country. Spain is not far behind with more vehicles per-capita than France and the United Kingdom, but less than Germany.
According to the International Association of Public Transport, France, the UK, and Germany all had positive public transit growth rates from 2000 to 2015, while both Spain and Italy experienced negative growth rates during the same period. As of 2017, out of the five nations, Spain and Italy hold the two lowest annual public transit journeys per-capita.
In some countries, elevators are known more as lifts. Furthermore, significant outbreaks have been found at ski resorts in both Europe and the United States. This suggests that outside elevators — ski lifts — may also be a device fostering the virus’s spread.
Although not considered public transit, elevators are heavily traveled spaces. For the people that live in high-rise buildings, they can be unavoidable. In any elevator, it is possible for the virus’s presence in the air from coughs and on surfaces such as buttons. So, if you do not want to catch the coronavirus, it might be wise to take the stairs.
