The Problem With Probability

Your decision-making needs it more than you know

Darren Matthews
The Startup


Photo by J. Weisner on Unsplash

Imagine trying to calculate the probable outcome of every decision.

Yes, it sounds kinda painful. But would it improve the quality of our decision-making?

Yes, it would. But it would also do something else.

It would allow us to appreciate that no decision comes with a guaranteed outcome.

The 18th-century journalist, Walter Bagehot was frighteningly right when he said, life is a school of probability.

Probability is the mathematical way of accounting for uncertainty.

It is so logical, that our emotional mind can’t stand it.

That’s the problem with probability.

The Upside to Thinking with Probability

Uncertainty is a part of life.

None of us can predict the future with great accuracy, although it doesn’t stop us from trying.

Entropy; the supernatural collective of uncertainty, randomness, and disorder is always amongst us.

Yes, we create systems which we believe are contained enough to stop entropy from appearing. We forget nothing is ever isolated. The universe is one complex adaptive…



Darren Matthews
The Startup

Following my curiosity — which is decision-making — and sharing what I learn along the way