The Three Horizons Technique to Get Through the Pandemic
Manage uncertainty like a futurist
As COVID-19 closes schools and shops, cuts salaries and jobs, and separates us from our loved ones, even the most positive of us succumb to gloomy thoughts about what comes next. What will the future hold? Will my family I and be healthy tomorrow? Will I be in lockdown for the next few months? What will the impact be for the following years?
Pandemic can be overwhelming… “Unprecedented” is clearly the word of the month as most of us experience this for the first time. A similar experience from the past that we can refer to helps us make sense of what is going on. It gives us comfort that we can overcome it again as we did before. Without such a reference point, we might feel lost and insecure.
Change like this can be overwhelming… We had to replace the behaviour that was comfortable for us with new behaviours. We have to control ourselves not to get back into old habits. It takes a lot of mental resources and is exhausting.
But also, choices can be overwhelming… I was usually overwhelmed by the number of choices in supermarkets, until the last couple of weeks, when my choice process got much easier thanks to nearly empty shelves.
Opportunities can be overwhelming as well. We never know for sure what chances are waiting for us when we decide to go pursue one option over another.
All these situations, some posing risks, others – opportunities, have something in common. Uncertainty. There are so many things outside of our control! Our natural urge for certainty and comfort suffers.
But how do futurists deal with it? At the end of the day, these guys manage uncertainty for a living… What are the tools from futures studies that can help us to go through this turbulent time?
The approach I find most useful here is based on The Three Horizons framework. The original version of the framework, developed by Bill Sharpe, is an approach to think collectively about the future in a way that leads to more effective action. If you want to learn more about the tool, check out Bill Sharpe’s book. I applied the principles from the framework to structure thinking about an individual’s (or an organisation’s) future throughout and after the Big Pause that we are experiencing now.
As the name suggests, the Three Horizons framework can be illustrated with three lines on a sheet of paper, each representing a view of the future. These alternative views of the future coexist at the same time and are already present right now. That’s why they all start in the same spot on the x-axis (time). However, the prevalence of each view of the future is different at each point in time. For our purposes, I changed prevalence to focus: how much attention should each of our alternative futures be getting at a particular point in time.
In the original framework, the first horizon (the red line) is the dominant, business as usual view of the future that prevails right now. The hope is that over time, we will be able to replace it by a better future. There are seeds of this preferable future in the present, in our vision of it. This is the third horizon. The second horizon stands for the changes that either transform the current, business as usual view of the future to bring our preferable future to life or help to reinforce the status quo. In this sense, the decisions and actions taken in the second horizon play a critical role in creating a future we want.
Now, let’s transform it into a tool that — together with the paramount focus on physical and mental health — would help us to get through the COVID-19 time. Shall we?
Horizon 1. Imagine (only for a second!) that the current scenario (a stay-at-home scenario in many countries) is our business as usual. I know, I know, it’s a horrible prospect, but as we are not certain about how long it might go for, it could be useful to imagine this kind of unwanted future. Doing this will help us adapt, build resilience and cope with it as long as we have to.
So, let’s agree, as a thought experiment, that “the new normal” of COVID-19 is our dominant future scenario for an indefinite period of time. Since our usual way of living turned upside-down, many of us experience difficulties with concentrating, staying focused, managing emotions or being creative. From our “usual” levels at Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, we were pushed to the stage where safety is our immediate priority. In this state of mind, it is hard to imagine that we can influence things and create a better future; we don’t feel empowered.
That’s why before we give some attention to other horizons, we need to restore our sense of agency and build resilience. We need to prioritise taking care of ourselves, our immediate circle and everyone around the world we could affect (i.e. by being caring and compassionate in social media). There are many tools that help maintaining agency during difficult times, from reviewing your strengths and past achievements to brainstorming on pathways to move forward. Focus on building this foundation now to get into the headspace where you can think longer-term. As you can see from the chart, while Horizon 1 becomes less prevalent over time, it is important to manage your wellbeing and motivation continuously.
Horizon 3. At the same time, there is hope. There are glimpses of the future that we prefer; the future that we want to make our reality on the other side. How does your desired post-COVID-19 future look like? Do you want to get back to what was before? Do you feel the need for change, building on the learnings and revelations from the pandemic? Do you see new opportunities emerging as a result of the change and your reflections? By reviewing the changing environment, understanding what will deliver more value and aligning it with your strengths and skills, a vision of a transformed You will start emerging in front of your eyes. How can you begin influencing what is in your zone of control to get closer to your vision?
Horizon 2 is where the magic happens (or does not happen). You can use this time to audit your strengths that you started listing in Horizon 1, as well as the gaps in skills and knowledge that are preventing you from achieving your vision for Horizon 3. It is not a simple gap analysis. It is another version of your possible future and your next focus. In this horizon, the choices you make determine whether on the other side of the Big Pause you will get back to what was before or transform into something new. Through incremental adjustments and transformational experiments to test your assumptions about the changes in the environment, you will start bringing your new ideas about You (and your business) in Horizon 3 to life.
This is the opportunity to reflect on your values, to change some of the behaviours you want to stop from getting into the future, and to gain new knowledge and skills that you will need in Horizon 3. These can be simple steps, from subscribing to a podcast of your interest, doing some research, completing a course or finding a mentor. As the chart shows, this is something that needs your attention all the time, but this year the numerous changes happening simultaneously push for a more profound transformation. What are the immediately actionable opportunities that you can start working on?
I hope this framework offers you a useful approach to cope with uncertainty and an alternative way to spend the time as we are stuck at home. In the next series of posts, I will introduce other tools from futures studies and positive psychology that can guide you through each of the horizons. Until then, stay safe!
PS: To learn other tools that futurists use in their work and apply them to make a difference in your life, join Future From Within community.
