Bet Sizing and the Kelly Criterion

Bet Smarter, Not Bigger

Will Arsenal win their next game?

Would you bet $10 on it?

How about $50?

Guesswork won’t cut it in sports betting

Prominent gamblers and investors like Warren Buffet and Bill Gross use the Kelly Criterion (source)

Instead, the Kelly Criterion offers a mathematical way to size bets based on the probability of that outcome and the odds (reward) being offered.

The Kelly Criterion is my favourite bet sizing method, and the Systematic Sports Football Betting Algorithm also uses it.

Bankroll Management

Effective bankroll management differentiates profitable sports gamblers from losing money every weekend.

Your bankroll money is what you have set aside to gamble with.

Tommy Shelby setting aside some money to gamble (source)

This amount should never be more than you’re willing to lose because you could lose it all very quickly if things go wrong.

Bankroll management includes:

1. Bet Sizing
2. Performance Reporting

Bet Sizing