Football Value Betting Guide 2023/24

The Complete Guide to Value Betting (EV) in Football

Become a better gambler using simple maths, the fundamentals of Value Betting, bankroll management and a systematic approach to value betting.

1. What is Value Betting?
2. What are Decimal Odds and Implied Probabilities?
3. What are True Odds?
4. Bookmaker Book Balancing
5. How to Identify Value Bets

Tony Bloom is a prominent Value Better (source)

What is Value Betting?

A value bet (+EV) is when the bookmaker’s odds are better (higher) than an outcome's true odds (actual likelihood).

These value bets exist because bookmakers must balance their books and other market factors.

Bookmaker Odds and True Odds for Man City vs Brentford (source)

The value bets are where the Bookmaker Odds (blue) are higher than the True Odds (orange). e.g. Away Win, Draw, and Both Teams to Score (BTTS_Y) are all value bets for this fixture.

If you correctly identify Value Bets, you can expect to be a profitable gambler in the long run.