Forecasting 2019

Abaas Yunas & Nourhan Ibrahim

Published in

Vista

6 min readSep 2, 2019

At the beginning of every year, the Tabah Futures Initiative compiles a selection of forecasts, projections and predictions that are offered by analysts, practitioners and institutions around the world. While each forecast reflects the view of the analyst, collectively the forecasts provide insight into the key issues that occupy debate and conversation in areas ranging from culture and society to independent nation states.

For 2019, we reviewed the forecasts mid-year to assess their accuracy and take stock of how the world of ideas develops and advances in convergence or divergence with anticipated trajectories. By looking back on forecasts from eight months ago, we can evaluate the continued relevance of a particular issue and its continued importance into the near future. In this article we offer some broad mid-year reflections on the forecasts and present selected forecasts in their original form for the benefit of readers.

REFLECTIONS ON THE FORECASTS

Three broad thematic issues stand out in the forecasts analysts put out at the beginning of the year.

First, the increasing presence and centrality of technology as a primary source of people’s information. Fears over fake news continue to abound and will remain for the foreseeable future. The increase in internet podcast listeners, however, at least in the United States, may be the bellwether of the world’s digital communication and information options. Podcasts do not have to offer mere news but can also offer analysis, discussion and conversation. Religious leaders in societies that exhibit high levels of religiosity (and where they are often sources of counsel for their communities) should pay attention to how this trend develops in the rest of the world. Measured, informed and constructive engagement of issues is what the podcast could offer and something many religious scholars have consistently called for.

Second, new forms of how people identify themselves are emerging in the West. Identity is more fluid now and malleable according to a person’s individual wish and desire. The idea that even gender identity is a choice is now a mainstay across liberal university campuses in North America, Europe and beyond. The notion is also more present in popular culture and media. The evolution of conceptions of identity is a societal reality and one which religious leaders must have awareness of. A permissive attitude towards trends and changes in identity can be problematic, but so too can neglecting and dismissing their significance for present and future generations.

Third, the problem of religious extremism persists amidst the ongoing fallout from ISIS’s territorial retreat. Even if this issue has lost media coverage and is overshadowed by geopolitics, the problem remains real, present and in need of close attention and engagement by religious leaders and scholars. The question of returnees is an urgent one but is also very challenging and complicated. Dr Ali Gomaa recently addressed this question in a television show[1]− more such engagements by religious figures could help to bring attention to the holistic nature of the issue rather than simply its security dimension.

2019 GLOBAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS

Technology

In 2019, based on estimates by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a UN agency, more than 50% of humanity will have access to the internet. (Ec)

70% of consumers now watch television and video on mobile devices, a figure that has doubled since 2012. By 2020, 50% of all viewing will be done on a mobile screen. (JWT)

Sound is becoming a key channel alongside watching or streaming TV. There is a shift towards podcasts. The number of US podcast listeners has tripled since 2008. (JWT)

In 2019, AI will cross the chasm into the mainstream, solving real problems for people in a variety of industries, not just advertising, search and self-driving cars. (Frb)

Cultural and Social

A new identity issue has emerged and will be extended, one in which allegiances are not yet fully formed. That issue is ‘gender self-identification’: the notion that humans are best classified, not according to biological sex, but by whether they say they feel more like a man or a woman, or something in between. (Ec)

Extremism

The Maghreb-Sahel region will face significant economic and security challenges. The question of jihadi returnees and their rehabilitation is still pending in many countries − worryingly in Tunisia, which has no strategy to prevent violent extremism or rehabilitation programmes in place. (CE)

Refugees

The type of refugee admitted has changed under Trump, the percentage who are Muslim is now a third what it was two years ago, while the percentage who are Europeans has tripled. (Rts)

Refugees admitted to the United States from the small European country of Moldova, for example, now outnumber those from Syria by three to one, although the number of Syrian refugees worldwide outnumbers the total population of Moldova. (Rts)

Politics

Countries with more than a third of the world’s population will hold nationwide elections − including India, the world’s biggest democracy, as well as Indonesia and Nigeria. (Ec)

2019 presents risks of confrontation − deliberate or inadvertent − involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran. (FP)

Populism in Europe

In 2019, populist forces — openly xenophobic — will come to power in many countries in Europe. (CIDOB)

Elections for the European Parliament in May 2019 will produce a fragmented legislature; pro-EU parties will retain control, but nationalist and Eurosceptic forces will have a strong following. (Sf)

In 2019 one of the great battlegrounds for what we may now call the “right-wing Populist international” will be the elections to the European Parliament. (CIDOB)

REGIONAL FORECASTS

Iran

In 2019, the fortieth anniversary will be celebrated of the Islamic Revolution and it is likely that this event will be taken advantage of to unite the regime against external enemies. (CIDOB)

Iran will probably remain in the nuclear deal and abide by its restrictions to preserve economic ties with Europe and oil sales to Asia. (Eur)

Iraq

In the absence of considerable investment in reconstruction, the Sunni areas will prove to be a key challenge to government stability.(ASF)

Lebanon

Lebanon is inexorably nearing the tipping point of economic and financial collapse. (CE)

Libya

Haftar is increasingly well positioned to cement his presence in the east and expand in the southern areas, moving toward Tripoli in 2019. (ASF)

Syria

The possibility of a breakout conflict involving the major powers overseeing the Syrian conflict is conceivable in 2019. (Sf)

Yemen

US pressure to end conflict in the region could intensify in 2019. The Senate has already voted to consider legislation barring all US involvement in the war. Once the Democrats assume control of the House of Representatives in January 2019, they could move more aggressively in this direction. (FP)

Russia

Russia will increasingly cast itself as the indispensable power in the Middle East. (Ec)

USA

The US could face a renewed bout of street violence. American society is already deeply polarised, and the political vitriol and institutional conflict that is likely to occur this year could boil over. (Eur)

The political parties have grown further apart, and the political centre has disappeared. The damage will be focused on the legitimacy of democratic institutions in the world’s largest economy. (Eur)