Inverted Yield Curve

Last week marked the official start of autumn — or so we’re told. Here in San Antonio, the daytime high temperatures are still hovering in the mid-90s. The week also felt like a huge pivotal shift in global central banks’ fight against sticky price inflation. Monetary policymakers added 350 basis…

Here is a quick tweet thread I put together regarding the state of the yield curve in various developed countries throughout the world. The yield curve inversions aren’t solely confined to the developed world either. In Brazil, the entire curve, with the exception of the…

We discussed the previous inversion of US yield curve in March 2019 and it predicted accurately the recession in 2020: Yiu, C.Y. (2019a) Yield Curve is Inverted Today, Medium, Mar 23. https://medium.com/@ecyY/yield-curve-is-inverted-today-eb5e3c207749 The US Yield Curve is inverted again since Tuesday (12 July 2022) again. Here shows the recent US…

*NOTE: There are 12 zeros in a trillion, 9 in a billion and 6 in a million. I incorrectly stated 18 per trillion in the recording. Apologies.*** Click To Listen To The Podcast What Is A Yield Curve? The Treasury yield curve is a graph that charts the interest rate on Treasury bonds, notes, and bills versus their maturity (time until…

There is much talk about yield curve inversions and their correlation with recessions.

If you have spent a fair amount of time perusing news from the financial media, from outlets such as Bloomberg, FT, etc., then it is likely that you have come across the term “yield curve” in some of your readings. I imagine that most people are not particularly familiar with…

At the beginning of last year, we asked if you should be concerned about the inverted yield curve. The fact is that many previous market crashes and recessions have been preceded by “inversion” of rates on long term versus short term bonds. The timing of this “predictor” is such that…

The yield curve is inverted on March 23, 2019, I warned last year (Yiu, 2019a). “The reason why the whole world is so nervous about the inversion of the yield curve is because it predicted highly accurately for almost all the recent past recessions. After 6–18 months of an inversion…