Awesome good job Zhenia
Caucus states are not very democratic.
Patrick T. Maloney
1
I absolutely agree, with the caveat that I think same day registration should be mandatory. That way, if there’s a candidate with broad support among independents, they have a shot at a party’s nomination. That’s fair because otherwise you polarise the general election field because centrist candidates would be filtered out.
ideas whittler4 mins ago1 min read
Hillary has 469 super-delegates to Bernie’s 31.
Patrick T. Maloney
1
They did it in ’08. They switched en masse to Barack Obama when it became clear who was going to have a majority of pledged delegates. In that sense, Bernie was absolutely correct. They’re irrelevant in the scheme of things. They won’t overturn a pledged delegate majority.
ideas whittler12 mins ago1 min read
I think after the NY and April 26th primaries, which account for a third of the remaining pledged delegates, Bernie will reassess his odds, especially if he fails to win big.
I’m looking at where we are now.
Patrick T. Maloney
9
NY is key. It’s not absolutely decisive. Bernie can’t win the nomination there, but he can lose it.
Clinton also has a lot to lose, however. If she doesn’t meet expectations by winning, and winning by a decent margin, that weakens her campaign significantly. The signs are that Sanders is moving the needle in his direction…
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ideas whittler15 mins ago1 min read
Am sure if Bernie was ahead by that count you’d be flaunting it.
I’m looking at where we are now.
Patrick T. Maloney
9
No. I would not. Maybe some would. Not me. Because it’s not relevant. It’s all about delegates.
Hillary Clinton probably won the ‘popular’ vote, as you’re describing it, in ’08. She yielded the nomination because guess what? Caucus states count too! And since caucus states don’t tally a popular vote, using one to claim a…
Tyler Molihan16 mins ago2 min read
ideas whittler19 mins ago1 min read
I don’t see where Bernie is going to pull off miracles and rack up the needed +57% of the vote he needs in each primary.
I’m looking at where we are now.
Patrick T. Maloney
9
I don’t see how you can call a 14% margin ‘miraculous’. It’s well within the range of possibilities.
We’re not arguing about the balance of probablities. If I’m a bookmaker, I’m still offering shorter odds on Hillary. I’m just saying that the spread is not nearly as wide as you seem to believe. Projecting that it is seems…
ideas whittler22 mins ago1 min read
The tides are turning back to Hillary’s favor with non caucus states with closed primaries and a more diverse electorate.
I’m looking at where we are now.
Patrick T. Maloney
9
What evidence do you have to suggest the momentum has shifted back towards Hillary?
By ‘diversity’ you really mean ‘black.’ The latest polls show the candidates neck and neck in Latino support. Hawai’i is among the least white states in the Union, and it went overwhelmingly for Sanders.
