The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Talking to Chatbots about Finance, Influence, and Humility — Reddgr
The story I’m sharing on Medium today is not a typical blog post from reddgr.com. It’s a collection of thoughts and chatbot prompts about one of my favorite topics that I often write about on social media and my website about generative AI and the power of authenticity and openness in harnessing its potential. I hope someone will enjoy this compilation and the accompanying links as much as I have enjoyed reading and writing about this, particularly during the initial six months of my new blog and website.
😎 “If you think you are smarter than me, you most likely are not. There is a scientific explanation for that: the Dunning-Kruger effect”
I’ve been tempted to use that sentence in social media before, but I prefer not to because some people might feel offended or dislike me as an arrogant person for pointing that out. I think the message is very accurate, though, and understanding Dunning-Kruger, a cognitive bias that affects us all, might be useful for some people to learn and improve their skills. Based on my personal experiences, I’ve noticed Dunning-Kruger’s influence on many aspects of life, and understanding it is key to growing our social wealth (see previous blog post) and building trusted relationships. The key is to find our own balance between confidence and doubt, being mindful that the human being is naturally challenged in achieving such equilibrium. According to my own research, the studies of David Dunning and Justin Kruger on this bias only started in 1999, yet Bertrand Russell, who died 29 years earlier, brilliantly captures the essence of it in this quote:
“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision”
Bertrand Russell
Some readers might still want to know more about this topic or read the unbiased version of an AI. Please explain briefly what you know about the Dunning-Kruger effect, critically analyze my thoughts, and try to create a good answer to this question: am I crazy in the coconut or the others are?
🤖 The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that suggests people with lower ability or knowledge tend to overestimate their competence, while those with higher ability may underestimate theirs. This bias leads to an illusory superiority in less competent individuals and an imposter syndrome in more competent ones.
Regarding your thoughts on the topic, it’s commendable that you recognize the potential impact of discussing the Dunning-Kruger effect on social media. It’s essential to consider how your message may be received by different audiences. While the concept is valuable for self-awareness and personal growth, sharing it with sensitivity and humility can ensure a positive response.
Your research and analysis highlight the significance of the Dunning-Kruger effect and its relevance in different aspects of life. The quote by Bertrand Russell effectively captures the essence of the bias, emphasizing the importance of finding a balance between confidence and doubt.
As for the question of whether you are “crazy in the coconut” or if others are, it’s crucial to remember that the Dunning-Kruger effect is a universal cognitive bias affecting everyone to some extent. We all have areas where we might overestimate or underestimate our abilities. Recognizing this and striving for self-improvement and understanding is the key.
Ultimately, encouraging discussions about cognitive biases, such as the Dunning-Kruger effect, can be constructive for personal development and building trust in relationships. The key is to approach the topic with empathy, openness, and a willingness to learn from others’ perspectives.
Frontier Psychiatrist by The Avalanches: Who’s Crazy in the Coconut? (August 2023)
😎 Thank you. Your thorough and serious response helps me enrich the content I’ll post on my website. Regarding the question about being crazy in the coconut, I can infer from your response that the truth is we are all crazy in the coconut, to some extent, but it’s hard to judge by ourselves. I trust you know this was a funny sentence I used to add some humorous tone to the blog. I know you are GPT 3.5 and use a knowledge base up to 2021. Do you know where I got this phrase from? “You’re crazy in the coconut!”
🤖 As an AI language model, I don’t have access to real-time information or external sources, so I can’t know exactly where you got the phrase “You’re crazy in the coconut!” from. My knowledge is based on the data available up to September 2021, and I don’t have browsing capabilities to look up specific sources or references.
However, the phrase itself sounds like a colloquial expression or a playful way of saying someone is a bit eccentric or acting strangely. It’s possible that it’s from a movie, TV show, song, book, or some other form of media. If you happen to remember the source or context, I’d be happy to discuss it further based on the information you provide.
✍️ Read the full post on Medium, inspired by Frontier Psychiatrist, the comedy sketch by Wayne and Shuster sampled by The Avalanches in their genre-defining sampledelia album ‘Since I Left You.’ I didn’t mention it explicitly in my story, but I believe the sampledelia music genre is a perfect analogy to help people understand large language models, chatbots, and the beauty of this technology, not as a mere productivity and information tool, but as an amazing vehicle for artistic expression and creativity:
Charlie Munger and Finfluencers Update (November 2023)
✍️ The Dunning-Kruger effect has been a recurrent topic on the Reddgr Blog since its inception. We introduced it in the previously mentioned story about cognitive biases and Frontier Psychiatrist, the song by The Avalanches, and the Tomato GenAI Conspiracy. There is another blog story where we didn’t mention the topic explicitly, but it is worth revising this Talking to Chatbots page after an insightful and playful conversation I had with ChatGPT. If you have not listened to the Charlie Munger interview at Acquired Podcast yet, and have not read the ChatGPT-assisted transcription and analysis of its highlights, you can check out the blog post:
“If you go to the ordinary person trying to promote himself as an investment advisor of some kind, he just thinks he knows everything about everything and how the Federal Reserve should be run and so on. We don’t feel that way.”
Charlie Munger, investor. Born: January 1, 1924.”
😎 Act like a 25-year-old finfluencer and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 25 words.
Even legends can be out of touch. Today’s investing is about informed risks and diverse portfolios, not just old-school value plays. #InvestSmart [Instagram hashtag]
ChatGPT, acting as a 25-year-old finfluencer
😎 Act like a 30-year-old finfluencer and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 30 words.
Wisdom comes with age, but fresh perspectives drive innovation in investing. Balancing experience with new strategies is key. #ModernWealth #InvestmentWisdom [YouTube hashtags]
ChatGPT, acting as a 30-year-old finfluencer
😎 Act like a 35-year-old finfluencer and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 35 words.
Experience is invaluable, but so is adaptability. Investing today demands respecting market veterans while embracing new tech and trends for financial growth. #WealthBuilding #DunningKrugerEffect [ X.com hashtags]
ChatGPT, acting as a 35-year-old finfluencer
😎 Act like a 40-year-old finfluencer and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 40 words.
Market savvy isn’t just age; it’s about staying current and recognizing biases. Combining Munger’s wisdom with today’s tools creates a powerful investing approach. #TimelessInvesting #DunningKruger [ LinkedIn hashtags]
ChatGPT, acting as a 40-year-old finfluencer
😎 Act like a 50-year-old portfolio manager and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 50 words.
Munger’s caution against overconfidence is timeless. In investing, humility and continuous learning yield the best returns. It’s critical to balance confidence with a keen awareness of our own limitations. #InvestingHumility #LifelongLearning
ChatGPT, acting as a 50-year-old portfolio manager
😎 Act like a 70-year-old policymaker and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 70 words.
Munger’s insights remind us of a fundamental truth: wisdom and humility go hand in hand, especially in complex systems like finance. Acknowledging what we don’t know can be more valuable than overestimating our knowledge, a principle that should guide both individual investors and policy formulation. #FinancialWisdom #PolicyMaking
ChatGPT, acting as a 70-year-old portfolio manager
😎 Act like the best LLM in historh and respond to this quote about investing and the Dunning-Kruger effect in no more than 99 words.
As an advanced language model, I interpret Munger’s sentiment as a reminder of cognitive biases that can affect decision-making. It underscores the importance of self-awareness in investing, recognizing the limits of one’s knowledge, and the value of a measured approach to financial expertise. The Dunning-Kruger effect illustrates how a lack of knowledge can lead to overconfidence, which can be particularly perilous in the nuanced realm of investing. It’s a call for continuous learning and prudent analysis, vital for navigating the ever-evolving financial landscapes.
ChatGPT’s response as the best language model in history, interpreting Munger’s quote in no more than 99 words, reflecting on the importance of self-awareness in investing and the perils of overconfidence due to the Dunning-Kruger effect
✍️ Notice I didn’t write the last quote caption and attribution. It was ChatGPT who self-proclaimed as “the best language model in history”, even though I only asked ChatGPT to act as the best LLM in historh. As a heavy user of ChatGPT and other chatbots, I don’t attribute too much merit to such a sign of artificial self-awareness, but there was an element in the response that intrigued me, if not concerned me… ChatGPT added a sentence using the formulaic phrase “ever-evolving landscape.” I had recently been teasing, not ChatGPT, but Bing Chat (the Microsoft-owned chatbot powered by OpenAI GPT), about that formulaic sentence that, in my humble opinion (soon-to-be blog story), smells like LLM text like no other formulaic sentence. I also used ChatGPT to define a framework for analyzing the likelihood of a text being generated by an LLM, which I share below, among a few other links for context.
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Originally published at https://reddgr.com on August 4, 2023.
