Long Road, High Hopes for Solid State, Lithium-metal
Lithium-ion Going Strong as Alternative Chemistries Develop
This is a thought leadership piece in which we summarize our key learnings from TDK Ventures Energy Week 2022. It was my great honor to host the panel discussion on the Future of Battery Development and Manufacturing, where we had amazing conversations with scientists, founders, investors, and industry leaders in the energy transition sector. Hope you enjoy the reading and are welcome to reach out for more discussions about battery technology and investment!
Beyond Lithium-ion Battery, Where Are We?
Even as new battery chemistries are developed every day and a greater sense of urgency emerges as the world struggles to meet the anticipated need for raw materials and manufacturing capacity. The rumors of lithium-ion batteries being replaced by solid-state or sodium-ion batteries have been exaggerated. That’s the consensus from a distinguished panel of experts TDK Ventures assembled as part of Energy Week 2022. The session on the future of battery development and manufacturing acknowledged many challenges both in scaling lithium-ion battery production and in developing the technologies that may one day replace it.
Shirley Meng is the chief scientist at the Argonne Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science and a professor of molecular engineering at the University of Chicago. She kicked off the discussion by championing the cause of lithium-ion innovators.
“Lithium-ion battery production capacity has exceeded one terawatt hour per year. This year also marks 30 years of the commercialization of lithium-ion batteries. There will be many winners as new technologies emerge. But they will complement, not replace, lithium-ion,” she predicted.
“Like lead-acid and metal hydride batteries are still with us. It’s just that with new battery technology, we are able to electrify things that we never imagined before. We will have a very high bar to match in terms of lithium-ion production volume and safety record.”
Phoebe Wang, investment partner at Amazon Climate Pledge Fund, agreed that lithium-ion still has a long way to progress.
“Reportedly, there are companies that can achieve 450 watt-hours per kilogram. Whether they can mass-produce it remains to be seen, but there are interesting technologies. For example, replacing the anode with a silicon nanowire that can score higher density,” she said.
She believes solid-state batteries will come into their own in just a few years. They could be preferable to batteries that use liquid electrolytes because they promise higher energy density and less combustibility. She agreed that few use cases have matured, the pathway to mass production remains unclear, and the perfect solid electrolyte remains merely a glimmer in a chemist’s eye but is optimistic regarding the anode and cathode chemistries available to solid-state battery manufacturers.
Yan Wang, co-founder of Ascend Elements, a battery recycling startup, and AM Batteries, a dry electrode technology startup, and mechanical and materials engineering professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, conducts experiments on various solid-state battery materials. He is not so sure solid state’s time has come.
“I’m not fully convinced that they can replace lithium-ion in the near future,” he stated. “For some applications, like aviation, you might need higher energy density, but for most applications like particle electronics and EVs, lithium-ion is good enough.”
He said his automotive industry contacts believe EV batteries are often overdesigned. After 10 years or 100,000 miles, those batteries may still have 90 percent capacity or energy life, which is unnecessary and wasteful.
He seemed just as skeptical about batteries based on heavier metals than lithium, though he was more sanguine regarding sodium’s unique chemical properties.
“Sodium-ion batteries maybe have a brighter chance than the others because sodium is smaller than potassium, aluminum, and magnesium,” he explained. “And the companies working on them are more advanced. Maybe they can supplement lithium-ion.”
Meng said solid-state will not really take hold until the industry achieves a few more fundamental breakthroughs. She encouraged researchers and manufacturing companies to keep up the good fight.
“The fundamental reason we need solid state is there is a possibility of having no crosstalk between the cathode and the anode. With solid state, I believe this is the only way we can truly make vehicle-to-grid happen and really make the battery an asset,” she said. “Even with recycling, many people treat batteries as disposables. The battery is a refrigerator for electrons. If you want to keep large batteries at home, safety is very important. Solid state people are trying to address the issues because society demands we find ways to extend battery life. If we can’t do that, we cannot decarbonize the grid. So, we should give them some credit, though they know it’s an uphill battle to compete with lithium-ion.”
The discussion then turned to macro issues such as the political environment and the government's willingness to invest in electrification and manufacturing efficiencies and technologies that can create economies of scale with dry processing electrode performance taking center stage. We will report on this section of the session in a future article.
As session moderator, I closed the session by asking each panelist to deliver a piece of advice for aspiring battery manufacturers, researchers, or investors.
Phoebe Wang noted that commercialization potential must be considered by any entrepreneur considering entering the space. Her company bases its investment decisions in part on the potential of a technology, process, or company to progress through technical readiness levels (TRLs). TRLs estimate the maturity of the critical technical elements such as concepts, technology needs, and capabilities.
“We have seen a lot of breakthrough innovations in the lab. But how do you move from the lab TRL of 2 to four all the way to a TRL of 9,” she asked. “If you can demonstrate the pathway for your brilliant idea from the lab to commercial scale, it will take you a long way.”
Yan Wang urged those who are passionate about electrification and decarbonization and confident in their abilities, ideas, and companies to remain resilient.
“Don’t give up easily,” he advised. “I co-founded two startup companies. There are a lot of up and down. Many people questioned me. People laughed at me, saying, ‘You can’t get enough batteries to run a recycling business.”
That was 11 years ago, and “Now, recycling is a hot topic,” Wang noted. So hot, in fact, that in October, Wang had the last laugh when the U.S. Department of Energy announced that his company, Ascend Elements had been awarded grants totaling $480 million to produce sustainable lithium-ion battery cathode materials made from recycled battery feedstock.
“Focus on the system,” Hu said. “Eventually, you’ll need to deliver, whether it’s storage or automotive applications. You’ll have to deliver the whole system, and the technology might change. The tech that you eventually pursue may be different from what you start out with.”
Meng cautioned against putting too much faith in hydrogen.
“No matter how hot it becomes, stick with batteries,” she joked. “I don’t mind green hydrogen research, as long as it doesn’t take resources away from batteries. We are on an upward trajectory and in the middle of a really good trend. We need to sustain the growth and try to give hydrogen folks more time to get TRL-ready. Don’t waver. Batteries and energy storage are absolutely the key enablers of decarbonization efforts.”
Katharina Gerber, senior business development director at LiCAP Technologies, channeled her company’s president Linda Zhong:
“If you try to make something work, use the KISS technique — Keep it simple, stupid.” If you develop a new process, make sure you don’t complicate things. Make sure you create a product that can be scaled.
These are great takeaways as we finish the panel discussion. We will share more learnings from this session in future articles, please keep tuned.
Thanks for taking the time to read, and don’t hesitate to reach me on LinkedIn if you’d like to engage more on this subject, or any other topics related to deep technology innovations for the energy transition. You can also watch a recording of the full panel session on YouTube!
About TDK Ventures Energy Week:
TDK Ventures’ second annual Energy Week assembled some of the greatest minds and brightest lights in the fields of renewable energy, materials science, mobility, storage, and more. Over the course of 13 sessions — fireside chats, panel discussions, spotlight interviews, and in-depth reports — TDK Ventures and the expert businesspeople, researchers, academics, and investors presented their opinions and field notes on the world’s progress in solving some of its most pressing problems. Energy Week 2022 fulfilled TDK Ventures’ mission to spotlight the best ideas and most promising technologies to inspire entrepreneurs, inventors, and investors to redouble their efforts to mitigate climate change, hasten electrification, and develop the solutions that will herald a greener, more equitable planet.
