Chart porn
A pinch and a punch for the first day of the month.
After a stellar rally in January, markets were considerably choppier in February given macro headwinds. As we kick off the month of March, we dedicate this edition to the chartists out there and share the key technical levels that we are watching across major markets.
ES (S&P 500 futures)
* ES topped out at 4,208 in the aftermath of the Feb FOMC meeting but has since struggled on the back of stronger economic data and a rebound in yields, subsequently falling on 11 out of 16 sessions
* ES Support Levels: 3,938 / 3,855 / 3,810 / 3,772 / 3,563
* ES Resistance Levels: 4,001 / 4,041 / 4,155 / 4,208
NQ (Nasdaq futures)
* NQ similarly peaked at 12,950 post Feb FOMC and has since corrected >7%
* NQ Support Levels: 12,008 / 11,717 / 11,426 / 11,012
* NQ Resistance Levels: 12,368 / 12,885 / 13,220
YM (Dow Jones futures)
* YM Support Levels: 32,725 / 31,950 / 31,175 / 30,600 / 30,075
* YM Resistance Levels: 33,680 / 34,440 / 35,220
Bitcoin
* As flagged in last week’s note, after failing 3 times at the key $25.2k resistance level, prices have now pulled back to our initial target support of $23.1k
* BTC Support Levels: $23.1k / $21.5k / $20.3k / $19.2k
* BTC Resistance Levels: $25.2k / $26.2k / $27.4k / $28.5k
Ether
* ETH Support Levels: 1,551 / 1,438 / 1,298
* ETH Resistance Levels: 1,665 / 1,720 / 1,825 / 2,031
Key Upcoming Economic Data Releases / Events
- Clients who have been following our previous notes would have noticed our inclination to hedge the downside against the backdrop of stronger economic data / rising yields / strong USD
- BTC now appears to be rebounding off $23.1k support and we’ll be watching this level with interest
- It is possible that we get a more “normal” Non Farm Payroll number of around 200k on March 10 — following the shocking 517k reading of previous month — providing a potential catalyst for a relief rally in the markets
- We would look to re-establish downside protection strategies in this scenario, heading into the CPI release and the March FOMC meeting
- We have been suggesting a 5-legged option combo this week and have seen some good interest
BTC 31-March Option Combo
Short $26k / $27k Call Spread vs
Long $22k / $21k / $20k Put Butterfly
- Reach out to the desk if you would like to check out this and other riveting options ideas
