Leave or Remain: Brexit in the UK
by Patrick Jenning
On January 23, 2020, Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom (UK) assented to an Act of Parliament that would withdraw the UK from the European Union (EU) at the end of 2020. After 47 years, the UK would no longer be part of an economic and political union that had transformed Europe since the end of World War II in 1945. Why did this happen?
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU followed three-and-a-half years of discord in the island nation after passage of the national referendum known as Brexit. The term Brexit is a blend of “Britain” and “exit.” Prime Minister David Cameron called for the referendum in 2013. In 2016, the referendum presented voters with a simple choice: to leave the EU (a position called Leave) or to remain in the EU (a position called Remain). Cameron was confident that Remain would win. But 52 percent of voters chose Leave, and 48 percent chose Remain.
After the vote, Cameron resigned. His successor, Teresa May, struggled for three years to negotiate a deal with the EU that would win the approval of Parliament. These negotiations were complex because membership in the EU shaped many aspects of life in the UK, including trade, business administration, immigration, and travel and education abroad. After Parliament rejected her last proposals in early 2019, May ended her efforts and resigned as leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister.
Boris Johnson, a former journalist and London Mayor, succeeded May as prime minister. He pledged to Parliament that he would “Get Brexit Done.” Unlike his two predecessors, Johnson had supported the Leave campaign in 2016. In fact, he had long been a skeptic of the EU. His writings had contributed to the growth of a faction within the Conservative Party that advocated the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
As prime minister, Johnson is determined to complete Brexit. In September 2019, he tried to limit debate on his policies by suspending Parliament, but the UK’s Supreme Court declared his actions unlawful. He then demanded a national election but failed to win the required two-thirds of members of Parliament.
Finally, Johnson circumvented the two-thirds restriction by introducing a substitute measure that required only a simple majority. The measure passed and the election was held in December. Johnson and the Conservatives won a clear majority. In January, Parliament voted to leave the EU at the end of 2020, with or without a trade deal with the European Union.
From EEC to EU
The UK’s departure from the EU marks a major change in the European order. Since World War II, European nations have followed a path of increasing continental unity. In 1958, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands signed a treaty to create the European Economic Community (EEC). These countries sought to create a common market in Europe, removing all barriers to trade among member states. Over the decades, more and more member states began to share common regulations of industries, such as coal, steel, and atomic energy. The EEC eventually grew to include 22 additional countries.
For its part, the UK did not take part in the treaty that created the EEC, nor did it apply for membership until 1963. Twice, in 1963 and 1967, French President Charles de Gaulle vetoed the UK’s application. De Gaulle warned that the UK had an underlying hostility to the integration of European countries, and that the UK was more allied to the United States than to Europe. He said the UK would eventually undermine the common market of Europe. Britain finally joined the EEC in 1973, two years after de Gaulle’s death.
In 1975, the UK held its first national referendum on continuing membership in the EEC. During the campaign, the Labour Party, composed mainly of social democrats (progressives) and trade union members, voted by a slight majority to remain in the EEC. But Conservative Party members, composed of supporters of free trade and pro-business interests, supported the UK’s membership by a much higher margin of 88 percent.
Popular and party support for the EEC changed during the next 40 years. In 1984, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher successfully negotiated a 66 percent reduction of the UK’s contribution to the EEC. Although the savings the UK enjoyed afterwards strengthened Conservative support for the EEC, in the coming years progressive, pro-environment, and pro-organized labor stances adopted by the EEC leadership conflicted with the Thatcher government’s internal policies. However, these same EEC policies led the Labour Party to drop its opposition to EU membership.
In 1993, the EEC finally formed one common market in Europe. Goods, services, labor (workers), capital (money to invest in businesses), and people could all freely cross the borders of the member states. This new common market was named the European Union, which adopted a common currency (the Euro) and was governed partially by an elected European Parliament with both legislative and budgetary powers. At the time of the Brexit vote of 2016, the EU consisted of 27 member states, including 11 that the Soviet Union had dominated before 1991.
No member of the EU had withdrawn from the organization before the UK did so in 2020. After the vote to leave, some observers worried that the UK’s exit signaled that decades of cooperation among European nations would end. Support for the EU remains strong in most member nations. In other nations, particularly Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria, distrust of the EU is significant. Some fear that a breakup of the EU might return Europe to what Winston Churchill called “a series of frightful nationalistic quarrels” that had plagued it for centuries.
Why Withdraw?
Single-issue political groups that favored UK withdrawal from the EU formed in the 1990s. While based primarily on Conservative support, they also attracted adherents from the Labour party. Analysis of the 2016 referendum reveals that voters split more by region, education-level, and age than party affiliation. Leave voters dominated in rural areas, but most voters in cities voted Remain. Support for withdrawal increased with each ten years of voter age. Seventy-three percent of voters between 18 and 24 years selected Remain, while 60 percent of voters aged 60 years and older chose Leave.
The UK’s Leave voters reflected trends that have been growing across Europe. Anti-immigrant sentiment has grown among voters in other EU nations in response to the arrival in Europe of many asylum-seekers fleeing the devastating civil war in Syria, as well as extreme poverty and war in a number of African countries. Many Leave voters complained that the EU’s “free movement of people” policies impaired the UK’s control over immigration.
Racism and xenophobia (fear of foreigners) became central to debates over Brexit. Polling showed that many working-class Britons were concerned about the free movement of people allowing immigrants to take their jobs. Nationalist politicians such as Nigel Farage supported Leave and exploited workers’ prejudices and economic woes with posters displaying racist images of Arab and South Asian men, including depictions of stereotypes of Muslims, in an effort to play to widespread Islamophobia.
But evidence suggests that many voters were uninformed about Brexit and what it meant. British writer Otto English supported Remain and talked to Leave voters who said they were “voting for chaos,” or they saw it as a symbolic vote “for Boris [Johnson].” Others were not even aware that the UK was already a member state in the EU. After the Brexit polls closed, “What is the EU?” became the second most frequent Google search in the UK. “What does it mean to leave the EU?” was the top search question.
Young people, people in large cities like London, and people in Scotland and Northern Ireland all tended to support Remain. For young people, the free movement of people represented something positive because they often find jobs outside the UK — in EU countries. Polling showed that older voters and rural voters tended to be more opposed to immigration.
Many Leave voters also complained that membership in the EU had led the UK to sacrifice part of its sovereignty. A poll of 12,369 British voters throughout the UK on the day of the Brexit vote revealed that 49 percent of Leave voters said the single biggest reason for their vote was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK.” Thirty-three percent cited immigration concerns, while only 6 percent cited economic concerns. On the other hand, 43 percent of Remain voters cited risks to the economy and jobs as “too great” to leave the EU, followed by 31 percent who favored the EU’s single market.
On the issue of sovereignty, for instance, British fishermen complained of excessive EU regulations and competition from foreign boats in UK waters. While the fishing industry is a minor part of Britain’s industry and workforce, the fishermen’s grievances became a central issue in the 2016 Brexit debate. Boris Johnson also highlighted them in his election campaign in 2019.
The Leave campaign gained support from some left-of-center voters who criticized the EU for favoring corporate interests at the expense of consumers and workers. Many right-of-center voters also chose Leave out of skepticism about political leadership in both parties. To an extent, the Leave vote reflected populist attitudes that have been growing in other European nations and the United States.
A Vote for Free Trade?
It’s unclear how the UK will fare economically after it leaves the EU. Opponents of Brexit argue that higher custom duties and a decline in exports will reduce the UK’s gross national product by as much as eight percent. They expect multinational companies headquartered in London to move operations to other EU nations, costing the UK jobs and tax revenue. Opponents also point to non-economic impacts, such as diminished security and international influence.
Proponents of Brexit dismiss most of these economic criticisms. They argue that the UK contributes more money to the EU than it receives in benefits. They also contend that British consumers will pay less for non-European imports from non-EU nations when they are not subject to the EU’s Common Customs Tariff. A tariff is a tax on imports, in this case a tax on imports from non-EU countries. Beyond these specific financial claims, Leave proponents see a more robust future for the UK’s economy after it is free from the EU’s regulatory powers.
In February 2020, Prime Minister Johnson praised Parliament’s vote to withdraw from the EU. He declared that it ended “a debate that has run for three and a half years — some would say 47 years.” For Johnson the overarching goal of Brexit is to return the UK and the world to free trade, or a global policy that does not limit imports and exports from one country to another.
Johnson denies that Brexit was a vote to isolate the UK and impose protectionist economic policies. Protectionism is the opposite of free trade. It is the use of restrictions on imports to protect domestic producers of goods, like consumer products. The main tool of protectionism is the tariff.
Whether Johnson’s views reflect those of most Leave voters remains to be seen. However, the UK has a history of standing aloof from continental Europe while looking to the world beyond the continent. The UK was an active player in European politics for centuries, but its overall policy was defensive: opposing European states attempting to dominate the continent while maintaining a superior fleet to guard against invasion by European armies.
Johnson rejects anti-Brexit Britons’ fear that his determination to “take back control” will ultimately involve relaxing protections for workers and the environment. But many Brexit opponents worry that without the EU’s regulations, the Johnson government will seek closer economic ties with the Trump administration, favoring business interests over those of workers, consumers, and the environment.
Johnson has stated that, if necessary, the UK will leave the EU without a trade deal. In his February 2020 speech, however, he expressed his preference for an agreement that would mirror the EU’s trade agreement with Canada, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). He described CETA as “a free trade agreement, which opens up markets and avoids the full panoply of EU regulation . . . .” Whether Johnson can convince the EU nations to agree to a “Canada deal” remains to be seen. Significant opposition to such an agreement has already developed in the EU and the UK alike.
The Future of the UK
Brexit may also have dramatic consequences for the UK’s internal affairs in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, where a substantial majority voted Remain. Polls taken in Scotland since the Brexit referendum show a growing sentiment in favor of Scottish independence. In 2014, 44.7 percent of the Scottish electorate voted to leave the UK.
In Northern Ireland, where tensions between Catholic and Protestant areas gave rise to decades of violence in the 20th century, support and opposition to Brexit divided along religious and community lines. Protestant communities voted Leave while Catholic areas voted Remain. Some observers have noted that the re-imposition of tariffs and border agents between the Catholic-majority Republic of Ireland and the slightly Protestant-majority Northern Ireland could renew demands by Catholics for separation from the UK.
To address this problem, Teresa May and the EU earlier agreed to maintain a policy called the Common Customs Tariff until a permanent solution could be negotiated. Under this arrangement, goods would continue to flow from the UK to Ireland and between the EU and the UK unencumbered by tariffs or regulations. The agreement became known as the Irish Backstop.
Many Conservatives opposed the temporary Irish Backstop, claiming that it effectively undermined the point of the Brexit vote. After becoming Prime Minister, Boris Johnson negotiated a new agreement with the EU under which goods would still move freely between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but the UK will impose an internal trade barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain. Northern Ireland’s Protestants claim it will isolate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and bond it closer to the Republic of Ireland.
While Northern Ireland’s Catholic leaders support the agreement, they continue to oppose the UK’s exit from the EU. Their desire to unite their communities with the Republic of Ireland has strengthened.
The COVID-19 pandemic has made the UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU by the end of 2020 more challenging. The European Union has called for the UK to delay its withdrawal until 2021. Despite the worldwide economic collapse and the heavy toll that the pandemic has exacted from the British Isles, Prime Minister Johnson remains determined to leave by the end of the year.
Questions for Discussion
- Describe the relationship between the UK and the EU since World War II. How significantly did Brexit change that relationship?
- What were the key differences between those in the UK who opposed Brexit and those who supported it?
- Was Charles de Gaulle ultimately correct in his warnings about the UK entering the European common market? Why or why not? Use evidence from the article in your answer.
This article was originally published in the Summer 2020 issue of Bill of Rights in Action (BRIA), the quarterly curricular magazine of Constitutional Rights Foundation. Click here for a classroom activity on this article, plus writing and discussion questions for use with high school students. You can also subscribe to BRIA for free here.
