The United States, China, and Taiwan
by Carlton Martz
Since the Chinese Civil War ended in 1949, the large island of Taiwan near mainland China has functioned as a nation. The Taiwanese people say that Taiwan is an independent country, but the communist government of China claims Taiwan is part of China. American foreign policy has supported Taiwan over the years. In recent years, China has indicated it might invade the island. What should the U.S. do if that happens?
The Chinese Civil War and Its Aftermath
Beginning in 1927, communists in China led by Mao Zedong and anti-communists led by Chiang Kai-shek fought a civil war. In 1949, Mao’s communists defeated Chiang’s anti-communists, who were also called Nationalists. Chiang and his followers then fled to Taiwan, vowing to return someday to the mainland and overthrow Mao’s communist regime.
Mao claimed Taiwan was always a part of China and must be unified with the mainland. Mainland China was fully under the control of Mao’s communist regime and called the People’s Republic of China (aka China).
In the meantime, Chiang established his own Nationalist government on the island of Taiwan, which he called the Republic of China (ROC). Chiang’s government was under one-party rule with martial law and no free elections.
At first, Taiwan was recognized by other nations as the true China and became a member of the United Nations (UN). But throughout the 1950s and 1960s, more and more nations voted to recognize the PRC as the representative of China in the UN. In 1971, a majority of member nations in the UN voted for official recognition of the much larger communist mainland China, and Chiang’s ROC was expelled. Since that time, Taiwan’s legal status has been unclear.
Changes came to Taiwan after the death of Chiang Kai-shek in 1975. His Nationalist Party gradually gave up sole control of Taiwan. The government ended martial law in 1987. In the 1990s, democratic reforms led to free elections. The first non-Nationalist president, calling for Taiwan’s national independence, was elected in 2000. Over the past two decades, Taiwan has become a strong democracy. In 2016, the Taiwanese people elected Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s first female president.
The U.S. Recognizes Taiwan
In the mid-1950s, during the Eisenhower presidency, the first of several military crises occurred in the Taiwan Strait, the waterway separating Taiwan from mainland China. Mao ordered shelling of islands occupied by the Taiwanese Nationalists. In return, Chiang ordered bombing of the mainland coast. Both sides seemed to be preparing for war, but neither side was ready for war. The crisis soon ended.
As a result of this crisis, the U.S. and Taiwan agreed to the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1954. Approved by Congress, this treaty authorized the American president to use military force, if necessary, to protect territories in the Taiwan Strait. It also proclaimed a “Two China” policy, with Taiwan as an independent nation allied with the United States.
The Shanghai Communique
The Cold War made both communist China and its communist Soviet Union ally enemies of the United States. By the 1970s, there was a growing split between China and the Soviet Union. Seeing an opportunity to take advantage of the split, in 1971 U.S. President Richard Nixon sent his national security advisor Henry Kissinger to have secret talks with Chou Enlai, China’s prime minster.
Soon after Kissinger’s meeting, Nixon himself made a trip to China in 1972 to meet with Mao. This historic meeting overturned U.S. recognition of Taiwan’s independence. In the resulting Shanghai Communique (diplomatic communication), Nixon agreed to three major things:
- “The United States acknowledges that all Chinese in either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States government does not challenge this position.” (Scholars have debated whether “acknowledges” means that the U.S. recognized that this was China’s position on Taiwan, and not necessarily that it was official U.S. policy.)
- The U.S. calls for a “peaceful settlement” between China and Taiwan.
- As the peaceful process proceeds, the U.S. will gradually withdraw military forces from Taiwan.
The Shanghai Communique seemed to end the idea that Chiang Kai-shek led the only legitimate government of China. Nixon said the U.S. had to come to grips “with the reality of China.”
Chiang and many of his supporters in the U.S. charged that Nixon had betrayed Taiwan.
Carter’s ‘One China’ Policy
Several years later, U.S. President Jimmy Carter built upon Nixon’s Shanghai Communique and he cancelled the 1954 Mutual Defense Treaty that had assured U.S. military defense of Taiwan.
However, Carter’s “One China” declarations drew anger from Taiwan and from its American supporters. As a result, Congress passed and Carter signed the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 that modified and even reversed U.S. official policy on Taiwan and China. Key provisions included:
- The U.S. will maintain unofficial relations with the “governing authorities” of Taiwan.
- The U.S. will provide military aid to Taiwan for its self-defense.
- The U.S. will resist any form of force “that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan,” but use of U.S. military forces would require consent of Congress.
- The U.S. declares that the future of Taiwan must only be determined by “peaceful means.”
Presidents after Carter made their own declarations on the U.S. “One China” policy. In 1998, President Bill Clinton stated the U.S. was opposed to Taiwan declaring its independence.
Strategic Ambiguity or Clarity
Today, both China and the U.S. say they support a “One China” policy. For China, it has always meant that Taiwan is a breakaway province. Taiwan must be united with the communist mainland by any means necessary. A use of force, the Chinese government says, will be necessary if Taiwan ever declares its independence.
For the U.S., “One China” is more ambiguous, or less clear. The U.S. says it “acknowledges” that Taiwan is part of China, but any unification must be done through peaceful negotiations acceptable to the Taiwanese people. The U.S. opposes Taiwan declaring itself an independent nation.
For many years, the U.S. has provided defensive weapons (such as anti-tank missiles) and training to Taiwan’s military. While the U.S. has promised to come to the aid of Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, it is not clear what this means. Would aid mean military aid, like that for Ukraine after the Russian invasion of 2022, or American troops?
Currently, there is a debate in the U.S. over how best to prevent China from invading Taiwan. Those in favor of “strategic ambiguity” argue that to prevent a Chinese attack, the U.S. should keep its intentions unclear. If China must guess what the U.S. would do, China will be deterred from invading Taiwan.
On the other side of the debate are those in favor of “strategic clarity.” They say the U.S. should make clear to China that America would respond militarily to any Chinese use of force against Taiwan to deter China from invading. This would include defensive weapons and deployment of U.S. military naval, air, and land forces with the approval of Congress.
Current Positions of China, the U.S., and Taiwan
The 2022 Communist Party Congress in China voted Xi Jinping into his third term as China’s president. (His family name is Xi, pronounced Shee.) Xi has declared an aggressive strategy of replacing the U.S. as the world’s leading power. Throughout his presidency, he has rapidly modernized China’s military and nuclear weapons. (China currently has around 350 nuclear warheads, while the U.S. has around 5,400.)
An important element of Xi’s goal is unification with Taiwan. He promotes the idea of “One Country, Two Systems,” which seems to mean a degree of self-rule by the Taiwanese.
In recent years, American politicians of both major parties have visited Taiwan. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a high-profile visit to Taiwan in summer 2022. Congress has also approved military aid, angering the Chinese government. In response to these developments, Xi has ordered aircraft, warships, and missiles fired near Taiwan as a show of force. Speaking before the Communist Party Congress in October 2022, Xi said China wants a peaceful unification with Taiwan, but “we will never renounce the use of force.”
U.S. President Joe Biden released the National Defense Strategy in 2022. This document, prepared by the Defense Department, identified China as the most dangerous security threat to the United States.
Biden has stated that chances of U.S. conflict with China over Taiwan has increased significantly in recent years. In May 2022, Biden said he would use the U.S. military to defend Taiwan. But he insisted the U.S. still supports the “One China” policy.
Nevertheless, Biden has come the closest of any president to abandoning strategic ambiguity and adopting strategic clarity. In November 2022, Biden met with Xi and discussed the Taiwan situation. After the meeting, Biden said, “I do not think there’s an imminent [immediate] attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.”
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen rejects Xi’s “One Country, Two Systems” solution to unification. She points to what happened when China took over the British colony of Hong Kong in 1997, and local leaders had to be approved by the Communist Party in Beijing. She argues that Taiwan today already functions as an independent country and wants things to remain as they are.
Most Taiwanese people, especially young people, agree with President Tsai and want strong relations with the United States. Despite continued U.S. military aid to Taiwan, however, Taiwan alone would be no military match against China’s military.
America’s Interests
If China were to attempt to take over Taiwan by force, how should the U.S. respond? Would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan present a threat to America’s commercial and national security interests?
Taiwan is a flourishing democracy with a population of 23 million people. It has strong trade ties with the U.S., especially as a source for microchips, a commercial interest to the United States and world. Microchips are essential for virtually all electronics, including computers; smart phones; automobiles and aircraft; and household appliances. Taiwan produces most of the world’s microchips.
If China invades Taiwan, what would be the United States’ best interest? If the U.S. did not defend Taiwan against China, it could make its Asian allies, like Japan and South Korea, feel insecure. But if the U.S. did defend Taiwan, it could cause a major war between China and the U.S. and allies on both sides.
Questions for Discussion
1. How do China and the U.S. differ about the “One China” policy?
2. Why does the U.S. oppose Taiwan declaring itself an independent nation?
3. Explain the policies of strategic ambiguity and strategic clarity. Which policy should the U.S. adopt for Taiwan? Why?
This article was originally published in BRIA, the quarterly curricular magazine of Teach Democracy (formerly Constitutional Rights Foundation). Click here for a high-school classroom activity on this article, as well as a source list for the article. You can also subscribe to BRIA for free here.
