Takeaways Of Exponential Innovation

Written by Delia Lauret

The Purpose Of Exponential Innovation

Singularity University’s Exponential Innovation program is focused on empowering individuals and organizations across the globe to learn, connect and innovate with each other using technology. I attended the program as a representative of Tommy Hilfiger, a leader in innovative Fashion Technology.

Each day had a different focus: On the first day, we learned about the exponential growth of digital technologies including next-generation AI, digital biology, digital manufacturing, blockchain and extended reality. The second day revolved around mental models, decentralized innovation and rapid prototyping. Finally, on the last day, we discussed corporate transformation and leading exponential change.

In between lectures, we toured the NASA Ames Research facility. Here we spent time exploring the tech lab, trialing Magic Leap (augmented reality glasses), a 3D printer, a brain-controlled interface and had a conversation with Pepper the robot.

From Linear To Exponential Thinking

Most of us know about Moore’s Law, which observes the exponential growth in the processing power of computers. However, this exponential growth also applies to digital technology, and that is causing many challenges. For humans, the concept of exponential growth is very difficult to grasp, as we tend to think linearly. Let met give you an easy example: imagine taking 30 linear steps. How far would you get? Maybe 30 meters? Now imagine taking 30 exponential steps (one, two, four, eight and so on). How far would you get in this case? Take a guess, and I’ll share the result at the bottom of this article.

Exponential growth is linked to the development of technology, but also to the decreasing cost of production. For example, only a few years ago, lab-grown meat cost approximately $300k per pound. Nowadays, that number is down to around $11 per pound, using only 1/10th of the amount of land and 1/10th of water for production. In the near future, the cost of lab-grown meat will equal wholesale costs, and in a few generations, people won’t know the difference if their meat is grown in a lab. Only our generation may find it difficult to adopt these changes, as we’ll remember the prior state of affairs.

Technology Doesn’t Care About Your Feelings

In tech and in life, your mindset is everything. We all live and see the world through our own biases, but breaking through them can help us ‘unlearn’ narrow perspectives. Also known as ‘shift thinking,’ in order to change what you do, you must first change how you think. Compare it to learning to drive on the other side of the road, or riding a backwards bicycle.

Why is mindset so important? Picture this: nanobots are flowing through your body, fixing diseases or anomalies before you even get sick. It may sound crazy, but this reality is coming sooner than you might think. So, we can either stick to our biases and ignore the groundbreaking innovation, or shift our mindset to begin thinking about what impact these nanobots could have. Does it mean we will need fewer General Practitioners? Will people potentially become more productive, seeing as the population won’t get sick anymore? Could taking a ‘sick-day’ become a phenomenon of the past? By challenging your beliefs and mindset, you can prepare for upcoming technological developments, benefitting greatly as a result. Because, in the end, technology doesn’t care about your feelings and will continue either way.

Consider Becoming A Bio-Broker

One of the program’s most highly debated subjects was digital biology. Sound familiar? The best known example of digital biology is the genome editing program, CRISPR, which is still in it infancy.

In genome editing, DNA is constructed the same way as computer code (essentially following the format of 0’s and 1’s, but using an 8-letter code). With the help of DNA sequencing, scientists are attempting to ‘debug’ DNA source code to adjust and eliminate diseases. As predicted, with the exponential growth of this technology came rapidly decreasing costs. In 2001, sequencing a human genome cost about $2.7 billion, whereas today an entire DNA sequencing costs $1000.

In addition to decreasing costs, the quality will also improve over time, thanks to the increasing sample size. The prediction is that one day, DNA sequencing will be done for all newborn babies, and by 2030, predictive healthcare will be available for every baby that is born.

Scientists are specifically interested in sequencing DNA from the African population, as they are the oldest population in the world and therefore they have the most advanced DNA. However, this interest raises the question: who is the owner of your DNA? There is an upcoming market of bio-brokers, who help people take control of their health data by creating a licensing model around their DNA. But that’s not where it ends, DNA can now also be used to store data. Microsoft is working on a such a DNA Storage project at the moment.

This topic raised a lot of questions surrounding the ethics of DNA sequencing. It’s one thing to adjust DNA to eliminate illness, but quite another to use it to create potential enhancements. Will eliminating diseases make the world more equal, or will this technology create a larger divide between the poor and rich who can afford enhancements? And what about pig/human heart transplants? Is a pig partially human when it gains a human heart? Or is the human with the pig-grown heart not entirely human? What does this mean for human rights legislation? In the future, what will it actually mean ‘to be human’? Let me just stop right there.

4D Printing Is The New Way To Manufacture Goods

In the field of manufacturing, there are innovations in different materials and in production methods. Manufacturers need to become smarter instead of faster (although one usually stands in the way of the other). In the future, engineers will likely turn into constraint managers, because possibilities will be endless.

Think of 4D printing: there are self-instructing materials that react to water or oxygen to morph. Imagine what this would do to a company like IKEA. You could buy a small box, then at home, expose the content to oxygen so that it grows into your bookstand. Or, think of the development of CT scans with the help of 3D printers, which could immediately produce custom implants while a patient is still on the operating table. With the innovation of 3D printing, it might become possible to start printing human tissue or food. New ways of manufacturing have also been discovered, like 3D printing in space, which is faster and offers more possibilities.

Here’s a bit of fun trivia shared by the lecturer: there are counterfeit parts on each commercial airplane in the US, including Air Force 1, due to failing supply chains.

We Are Probably The Last Generation To Die

We are close to reaching longevity escape velocity, meaning when you are diagnosed with a disease you will die from within a year, the solution to fix that disease will also be found within a year. That being said, an increased lifespan may also result from other unexpected discovery fields, such as Virtual Reality.

Virtual Reality can help increase the episodic memory of elderly, which is linked to their ability to move, contributing to their health and lifestyle. Or perhaps our increased life longevity will come from 3D printing. What if one day we could start 3D printing human organs, meaning you could drink all you want, because if you damage your liver, you can just print a new one and get it replaced! With exponential innovation, the options decreasing the death rate are truly limitless.

Answer: If you were wondering how far you would get after taking 30 exponential steps… In the last step alone, you would go around the world twenty-six times.