Election Result Round-up
Voting can be confusing, and sometimes deciphering the results of an election can be equally so. With things like ranked-choice voting, ballot measures that cancel each other out, and differing vote thresholds required for items to pass, sorting out the aftermath of an election can be tough. Read on to learn more about the results and why they are consequential for our region and the issues TechEquity cares about.
San Francisco
For a full breakdown of votes in San Francisco, check out the San Francisco Department of Elections website. Permanent absentee ballots will continue to be counted as they come in and could shift key races that are too close to call.
The SF Mayor’s Race
Perhaps one of the most publicized races in the Bay Area, we saw two progressive candidates, Mark Leno and Jane Kim, face off against the moderate contender, London Breed. Breed showed an early lead in polls, but with San Francisco’s ranked choice voting process, nothing was a foregone conclusion. In a ranked choice voting system, if each of the candidates fail to reach a majority (50% + 1) from the first choice votes, second choices come into play. The candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the voters second choice. Still confused? Check out this video from ABC 7 news that explains how ranked-choice and vote redistribution works.
On election night, Breed was in the lead with Leno behind her and Kim trailing. However, when all of the precincts had completed reporting none of the candidates had reached a majority. So, the ranked choice system kicked in, eliminating Alioto, Weiss, and Kim, and others, and redistributing their votes to the indicated second choices. The majority of voters who chose Kim as their first choice picked Leno as their second, due to a unique strategy to partner that the two campaigns deployed. This means Leno picked up quite a few votes, helping him to surge to first place. As of the time of this post, the margin is still too close to call. As mail-in ballots continue to trickle in the fates could be reversed. Approximately 90,000 votes have yet to be counted with a current vote split of 49.58% of the vote for Breed and 50.42% of the vote for Leno. If Leno wins this could tip the balance of power in San Francisco from the moderates, who controlled during Ed Lee’s tenure, to the progressives.
The District 8 Supervisor Race
Rafael Mandelman handily won the District 8 Supervisor seat with over 60% of the vote. District 8 encompasses The Castro, Glen Park, Duboce Triangle, the western part of the Mission, Noe Valley and part of Twin Peaks. Sheehy, the incumbent was appointed to his seat by Mayor Lee when former District 8 Supervisor Scott Wiener was elected to the California State Senate, leaving his Supervisorial seat vacant. Sheehy, upon his appointment, was seen to be a moderate successor to his moderate predecessor, Scott Weiner. But Sheehy didn’t always fall in line with the moderate voting block in City Hall. Most famously, he was the deciding vote to oust Board of Supervisors moderate and mayoral candidate London Breed from her appointment as Acting Mayor. While Sheehy was an unpredictable moderate, Rafael Mandelman, the winner of Tuesday’s contest, isn’t a steadfast progressive either. Mandelman, a long time fixture of the San Francisco progressive political scene moved toward the middle in his effort to capture the District 8 seat. In a meeting with the Chronicle’s editorial board, Mandelman “said he wants to increase conservatorship of the mentally ill and build housing on the Safeway parking lot at Market and Church streets. He’s even open to hiring more police officers, a stance not normally taken by the city’s progressives.”
San Francisco Measures C and D
San Francisco’s Measure C and Measure D were at odds with one another. Both measures went after the same funding stream, a tax on commercial rents, but would have put those funds toward different uses. Measure C imposed the tax to fund early childhood education and care. Measure D would have used those funds to provide housing and homeless services. TechEquity recommended a yes on Measure D and took no position on Measure C. You can look at our voter guide for information about each measure and our position. Because each of these measures went after the same revenue source the highest vote getter would become law if both passed. But, Measure D had a higher vote threshold to meet*, needing 66% of the vote to pass. Measure C needed only a simple majority. As of last night, Measure C was too close to call, with yes votes hovering just at 50%. Measure D fell decidedly short of it’s 66% threshold, with only 44.6% yeses.
*Taxes with a specific use need a ⅔ majority to pass while taxes that go to the general fund require 50%+1 of the vote. While both Measures C and D appear to have specific uses, Measure C was authored in such a way as to avoid that designation, allowing it to pass into law with a simple majority.
Alameda County
For further updates on Alameda County races, including up to date information about races that are too close to call, visit the Alameda County Office of Elections site.
Assembly District 15 Race
As those of you who attended our candidate forum in January will recall, the Assembly District 15 race opened with a wide field of candidates, twelve in all. The crowded field of candidates are narrowed to just two contenders as we head into the General Election in November. The seat became a heated race when Tony Thurmond (D) vacated his position to seek office as California Superintendent of Public Instruction. Buffy Wicks, a Democratic strategist and operative was assumed the clear winner of the primary weeks ago, as she out fundraised every candidate in the field. This prediction was correct, with Wicks capturing 31% of the vote, making her the clear leader. Who will become her opponent in the November general is still an open question. Oakland City Councilmember Dan Kalb has captured 14.9% of the vote, making him the likely second in the top two primary. But, Jovanka Beckles, a Richmond City Councilmember is trailing closely with 14.6% of the vote. With permanent absentee ballots still outstanding, Beckles could still capture the number two spot.
In addition to these races, we also saw wins for two ballot measures we endorsed last month: Regional Measure 3, which institutes increases in bridge tolls to pay for transit projects and San Francisco Measure F, which guarantees legal counsel to all tenants facing eviction.
Looking Toward November
We have plenty to look forward to in the general election come November. Many San Francisco Supervisors will meet their term limits and become unable to run for reelection. Mark Farrell, Supervisor for District 2, will be termed out. When he was appointed as caretaker Mayor, he appointed his longtime advisor Catherine Stefani to the position. Stefani has already announced that she plans to run for Farrell’s seat and is expected to lead the field of candidates. Nick Josefowitz, current BART Board Director and Kat Anderson, former DCCC member are also in the race for the seat.
District 6, currently represented by failed Mayoral candidate Jane Kim has SF YIMBY candidate Sonja Trauss in the race alongside Matt Haney, a current San Francisco Board of Education member and Christine Johnson, the recently departed director of urban think tank SPUR and a former San Francisco Planning Commissioner. Malia Cohen, who represents District 10 will also term out this year. Cohen has set her sights on becoming District 2 representative on the state’s Board of Equalization, winning the primary for that race with 36% of the vote. There are two candidates in the race to replace Cohen on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, Shamann Walton, current San Francisco Board of Education President and Theo Ellington, Director of Public Affairs for the Golden State Warriors.
Across the Bay in Oakland, Mayor Libby Schaaf will run for reelection and face many challengers including Cat Brooks, Ken Houston, Saied Karamooz, Kristina Molina, Nancy Sidebotham, Jesse A.J. Smith, Marchon Tatmon, and Cedric Troupe. Unlike in San Francisco, Oakland City Council Members do not face term limits, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have to compete to keep their seats. Desley Brooks, Oakland City Council Member representing District 6 has been mired in controversy. Currently under investigation by the Ethics Commission, Brooks has been splashed across the front page of local news for a scuffle with 72 year old Black Panther activist Elaine Brown. Brooks has a challenger endorsed by Mayor Schaaf, Loren Taylor, a local businessman. Also in the race for the District 6 seat is Natasha Middleton, management analyst at the Alameda County Probation Department. Oakland City Council Member Annie Campbell Washington, who represents District 4 has announced she will not seek reelection for a second term. Chris Young, a Montclair resident and lawyer is running to capture the seat. Young is a graduate of Berkeley Law and the former Northern California Finance Director for President Obama’s 2008 campaign.
And of course there will be a slew of ballot measures, locally and statewide, including a repeal of Costa-Hawkins which bans rent control on new buildings across the state.
Between now and then, we’ll keep you informed. Stay tuned here on our blog and also subscribe to our newsletter for more updates on the 2018 general election.
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