March Primary Early Update

Last night, voting closed for California’s primary election. It will still take at least a week for the vote counts to finalize, due in part to the extensive use of mail-in ballots. While the races we’re following are still in flux, we have some early updates for you.

SF Office Space-Affordable Housing Linkage Measure Ahead

In San Francisco, Measure E, the initiative that would link office production to the city’s success building affordable housing, is currently ahead by about 10 percentage points. As a general rule of thumb in San Francisco, votes counted later tend to come from voters more aligned with the city’s progressive bloc. The progressives in San Francisco were big supporters of Measure E, so it would be a surprise if the vote count shifted towards a rejection of the measure. We opposed Measure E because we felt it did not actually address the barriers to building affordable housing in San Francisco, and would further increase office rents in the city contributing to the exodus of nonprofits and small and medium-sized businesses.

Oakland Parks and Homelessness Services Measure in a Tight Race

In the East Bay, Oakland’s Measure Q which would increase funding for park maintenance and services for our unhoused neighbors is too close to call. Measure Q needs a two-thirds majority to pass, and as of 2 AM this morning the measure is just 0.1 percentage points over that threshold. We’ll be keeping a close eye on this measure, which we supported as it would fill a large budget gap in the city’s parks budget and provide needed funding for homelessness services.

Measure S, which we also supported, is winning by a much more comfortable margin. This proposition would raise Oakland’s budget cap, allowing the city to spend revenue from the special taxes voters approved in recent years. The measure only needs a 50% majority to pass, and 71% of the ballots counted so far support the measure.

Pro-housing Measures Leading in the South Bay

Down in the South Bay, Measure E in San Jose, which institutes an additional transfer tax on properties worth more than $2 million, has a lead in a close race. Currently, 53% of voters approved the measure, which we also supported. Mountain View’s Measure D, which would weaken the city’s rent control law seems likely to fail by a large margin. So far, 67% of voters have agreed with our position that it is wrong to allow for larger rent increases in the midst of a housing crisis.

School Facility Bonds Struggling Statewide but Ahead in the Bay

There are a number of other races we’re following even though we did not take a position. Statewide Proposition 13, which would approve a bond to fund school facilities is struggling with only 44% of ballots counted so far approving the bond. This measure needs a 50% majority to pass, but barring a dramatic reversal seems likely to fail.

School maintenance initiatives are fairing better in San Francisco and Berkeley. San Francisco’s Proposition A, which would authorize a bond funding maintenance of City College of San Francisco facilities seems very likely to pass having received 71% of the vote so far. Proposition A needs a 55% majority to pass and seems well on its way to clearing that bar. Berkeley’s Measures G and H, which would authorize a bond and raise taxes to fund school maintenance seem destined to pass with both receiving more than 75% of the initial vote.

Alameda County Measure C, which would raise the sales tax to fund early-childhood education and children’s healthcare is currently ahead with 61% of the vote, clearing the 50% majority needed to pass.

Vote counting will continue through the end of this week and likely into next week. Once the counts stabilize we’ll be back with another post on the lessons we learned from this election. In the meantime, if you want to follow the results we recommend the vote tracker published by the San Francisco Chronicle which continually updates as new votes come in.

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