Naturally Biased; Three Thoughts for Overcoming Biases in This (or Any) Election
The responsibility of the democratic vote is so vital and so vulnerable to the sway of bias.
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Here. We. Go.
Again.
New Zealand is in an election cycle. It’s our turn to enter the Merry Dance of Democracy. For the next three months, we’ll collectively swing and sway to the dulcet tones of the announcement and denouncement of policies, to the lilt of politicians' personal characters being bolstered and assassinated, to the strained discomfort of fringe conversations and wacky interpretations.
And when the music stops, we’ll need to make a Choice. A Choice that sets the tone for these small nations of ours for the next political cycle, and beyond. A Choice that literally has the power to change our little piece of the world, and beyond. A Choice is so important that we go to great lengths to reserve it, preserve it, and revere it.
With the delicate and vital importance of this Choice, you’d imagine that we’d rise to the occasion, and invest the appropriate energy into making the right Choice, making a decision that counts. We’d do our research. We’d weigh up the pros and cons. We’d align the decision to the issues that are truly important. We’d make the impartial, rational, well-defined Choice.
Not Well Equipped
Unfortunately, making impartial, rational, well-defined choices means grappling with our underlying natural wiring. We are wired to process information in the most efficient way possible. Our primal survival depended on that and still does.
When we overlay the complexity of contemporary society over our primal wiring, we create a fertile environment for Assumption, and her precursor, Bias.
We have a veritable deluge of information to process, each second of each day. Humanity is creating information faster now than ever before. The technology available to us means that we collectively create about 3.5 quintillion bytes of data each day. That’s about 35,000,000,000 Gigabytes of stuff — 1 Gb can contain about 350,000 emails. (1)
In less technical, more relatable terms, each day we create a shit-ton of content. We then collectively expect to consume that content — and we give it a good nudge! Latest estimates put total daily device usage (phones, tablets, laptops, streaming content on TVs) at just shy of 7 hours — and that’s excluding traditional ‘work’ conducted on those devices. (2)
We’re not actually wired very well to consume all of the information. We can consume as much information in one day that a highly educated individual living 500 years ago could expect to consume in a lifetime. (3)
Wired for Efficiency, not Effectiveness
So how do we do it? Well, in a word, poorly, if the measure is effective.
Whilst our brains seem to evolve to hold greater capacity, the brain’s chief mechanisms for processing information, and acting on that information, is an elaborate array of short-cuts, suppositions, and assumptions, based on the information available and filtered through experience, beliefs, and a desire to conform to our chosen community.
This natural ability helps us process information and direct our attention. It’s a coping mechanism. It keeps us safe. It’s efficient. And It’s not very effective. It creates a default, incomplete and unreliable state with which we view the world, and therefore form a world view.
The prevailing mixes of short-cuts, assumptions, and suppositions that we carry give rise to our biases.
We all have these biases. We have our unique blend of biases, built on our unique combinations of experiences. We carry that blend of biases in each situation and moment we face, both in a conscious sense, and also unconsciously.
In a less complex, simpler time, biases may have been a safety net. Efficiency was far more important than effectiveness, and the very need for effectiveness was relatively minor. In our volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world, those biases act as amplifiers. One could argue that our natural unconscious biases have actually created the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of our modern-day existence.
Without a doubt, the unchecked biases we all carry only serve to fuel division, derision, and disposition, none of which are helpful. We need our information processing to be efficient and effective.
Biases show up as both prevailing way-of-being, and also situationally specific. At last count, north of 170 specific biases have been identified. Buster Benson (4) did a ground-breaking piece on creating a cheat sheet for bias awareness in 2016, and John Manoogian III then built on Buster’s work to develop the widely shared and wildly popular Cognitive Bias Codex. (5)
Benson rightly identified that beyond primal safety and survival, the modern application of our biases comes down to four imperatives — the need to deal with too much information, the need to categorize what needs to be recalled, the need to add meaning to information, and the need to act fast.
We’re biased. It’s Dangerous. So What?
Biases, be that conscious or unconscious, aren’t great at the best of times, in this complex world of ours. But their danger escalates significantly when we engage in the most complicated task of all; participating in Democracy.
Thomas Jefferson, one of the founding fathers of modern democracy, insisted that “an informed citizenry is at the heart of a dynamic democracy”.
James Madison said it more poetically, and somewhat more brutally; “a popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both.”
In typically Churchillian fashion, Winston Churchill, whilst critiquing democracy, once said that “the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
The democratic process requires well-informed choice, and so often our biases simply get in the way.
At worst, we vote left or right simply because that’s what our community does. We vote against a candidate because of their characteristics, and because of their stance. We vote for a candidate based on their rhetoric, despite a glaring absence of any workable policies, and in spite of their clear incapability of holding office.
At best, our biases are more nuanced. We may engage in actual ‘research’, but fail to notice that our research is itself biased. We associate policies with perceived ‘problems’, and may not see that our perception of the problems may be pot-holed with bias.
Political strategists are not blind to the power of bias and use biases effectively to promote and perpetuate a message or a distraction. Our job, as active, intentional participants in the democratic process is to see beyond the bias and uncover the location of where our vote will actually matter and pay dividends. Our job is to make our vote as valuable as possible.
Of the 170-odd known biases, there are a few that run rampant in the election cycle;
- Confirmation bias — Favoring or seeking information that affirms your pre-existing beliefs. This looks like only paying to media with political leanings in the same direction as yours. The underlying awareness is to know that media outlets have political leanings in the first place. That in itself is an example of the compounding nature of biases.
- Coverage bias — This speaks to the extent to which different issues are reported on and discussed, and how they are covered. Political coverage is less about the argument and comparison of policy, which is boring and hard to make entertaining — and more about the horse race of numbers and the witticisms of the candidates, which is appealing and has huge entertainment value. Coverage becomes less about an educated and well-informed citizenry, and more about ratings and ad revenue.
- Concision bias — more than ever in the never-ending cycle of news, soundbites are an electioneers best friend. Knowing that they are fighting for audience attention, politicians seek ways to boil complex issues down into short, easy-to-recall sentences. A complex immigration situation becomes “build that wall”. A hope for a better future becomes “Yes we can”. Both are hugely effective as it turns out. Both significantly lacking in the detail required to make an informed choice.
The Unbiased Choice
Unexamined and uncorrected biases aren’t useful in modern society, in general. A bias no longer creates a safety net. The world is too complex for bias to be a useful tool.
In fact, the tool now presents a danger. Bias is the activation of assumption, and the assumption is the inhibitor of conversation. In a world where true deep, meaningful conversation about the things that really matter is the only form of progress, unchecked biases act as a gag.
So, knowing that we’re inextricably biased, knowing the dangers of bias in modern society, and knowing that we have an election coming up (for us in Aotearoa New Zealand, but for more global readers, your turn will come soon enough), what can be done?
There are interventions we can take. There are interventions we must make;
Awareness, awareness, awareness. Actively seek a wider context — this starts with the simple awareness that there is always a wider context. Our biases limit our context — that’s their job. The very act of accepting a broader context begins to negate the impact of biases.
Overcoming cognitive biases begins with becoming aware of their existence and how they can affect our thinking. Beyond this initial awareness, we need to continually educate ourselves about different types of biases and learn to recognize them in various situations.
The acceptance and understanding that biases are a natural part of human cognition can help us be more vigilant in identifying them. Surrounding ourselves with people who have different backgrounds, experiences, and viewpoints, and engaging with diverse perspectives can help challenge our own biases and provide us with a more well-rounded understanding of the issues in front of us.
Slow down, and activate patience. Cognitive biases are the result of quick, intuitive thinking in a world that demands thinking to be quick and intuitive.
Slowing down and taking our time to analyze information and make decisions reduces the influence of biases. We need to give ourselves the opportunity to consider alternative perspectives and gather more information before reaching conclusions.
Speed reduces our ability to notice and pay attention and increases our reliance on unconscious biases to process information. Unfortunately, we live in societies that champion speed; we hustle and bustle for more-more-more and we equate time with money.
The true value of time is worth significantly more than money. To see beyond our blinkered view, we need to slow the feck down. We need to see time not as a linear construct, but rather as a function of priority, and then act on our priorities.
Actively use decision-making frameworks. Consciously and intentionally using decision-making frameworks can help structure our thought processes and minimize the impact of biases.
Good frameworks balance an emotional decision (such as a vote in an election) with the rationalities of what that decision means. Decision frameworks encourage a more systematic evaluation of information and options. They encourage us to question assumptions and ask ourselves critical questions.
A good framework will challenge our assumptions and try to identify any potential biases that might be affecting our judgment, and then ask us to dig deeper to gather evidence and consider counterarguments.
Good use of a framework requires research. We need to research and research well. We need to go to the sources of information and try to avoid opinion pieces. Good research considers the counterargument; if it doesn’t, it’s just a perpetuation of a confirmation bias.
Overcoming cognitive biases is increasingly challenging as the war for our attention wages on, but it is essential for critical thinking, decision-making, and problem-solving. Overcoming cognitive biases is absolutely crucial for a functioning democracy, and by extrapolation, how our society is shaped for the next political cycle, and beyond.
By that measure, and not wanting to understate this, overcoming cognitive biases is the very key to our future.
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