We Know the Stakes, Still, we Hope to Make Over Eight Figures
How you and your worst enemy gamble in life
You probably may hate me for calling you a gambler.
That’s okay. I can handle it. Because you are a gambler.
Organisms are gamblers
This is the argument I make in my book. I use the four-fold reference model developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky to build my case.
In several past articles, I have stressed the role of the universe. Let me be discreet — the universe annihilates.
Nature annihilates.
There is a progressive disorder as time passes. Disorder is annihilation. Disorder spells death.
But here you are, alive and proving a point. You are far from dead. You are far from disordered. You are ordered. This happens because you decided to gamble. Here is the four-fold model which we will use as our point of reference.
The Four-fold Reference Model
From the top-left box and in an anticlockwise manner, we’ll discuss the four points:
- The first box is the intersection of high probability and gains — high probability gains. There is the near certainty of clinching the big win. The slim chance of losing, which hurts because one knows they almost got it, makes the rich accept the unfavorable settlement. The situation makes them risk-averse.
- The second box is the intersection of low probability and gains — low probability gains. A good example is of people in this category are lottery-ticket buyers. The chances of winning are slim, but the prospect of winning is exciting. It is also not costly to get a lottery ticket. The situation makes them risk-seeking.
- The third box is the intersection of low probability and losses — low probability losses. Those in these situations tend to seek assurance of security, especially after big losses. Say there was a big-magnitude earthquake. Many people have lost their loved ones and the damage to property is catastrophic. Those who have not been affected profoundly would want assurance of the safety of their property. It is a risk-averse move since large-magnitude earthquakes are a rare event, but you would have to continue paying premiums every time.
- The final box is at the intersection of high probability and losses — high probability losses. In this case, individuals are almost certain that they will lose. The prospect of a gamble is therefore appealing. They tend to be risk-seeking. Here is where organisms lie.
How?:
Organisms exist in a universe that is bound to annihilate. Nature annihilates. This is what the second law of thermodynamics implicitly states.
For this reason, there is the near certainty of death. It can strike at any time. The prospect of a gamble, therefore, appeals to organisms.
As far as evolution goes, organisms are perennial gamblers
Organisms will switch their genes, mutate and have sex if it means extending their lives.
The male praying mantis will mate even if it risks decapitation by the female partner.
Organisms will seek all forms of mergers even though they would prefer riding solo.
In the past, a father would give his property, even his children and wives, to be at peace with the reigning ruler.
These might be extreme examples, but they strike at the heart of the argument — organisms are gamblers.
So yes, we know the stakes.
In the remix of the song Knock the Hustle, J. Cole sings:
Make no mistake that we know the stake still
We hope to make over eight figures
Slim chances, but niggas bet against the odds
And who am I to criticize how you play your cards dawg
Cause I done beat the odds going way too hard
At a deep level, these lines define how we live, survive, and evolve.
Join 500+ people by subscribing to the lightest newsletter on the Internet for a one-four-all & all-four-one weekly feed, because all you need is one alternative view, only one, to edge you closer to extreme value creation, but I give you four.
