9 Economic recovery scenarios resulting from COVID-19 crisis

Mckinsey & Company looks at the possibility of most optimistic scenarios and bleaker possibilities playing out

When the COVID-19 drama unfolded in the West, earlier in March, none of the economic pundits had imagined the kind of financial storm that was about to hit the global markets and the economy. Most of the analysts at the time predicted a V-shaped recovery. The incidents that unfolded in the following few weeks have clearly shown that it has been a hard landing for the global economy and the recovery is probably going to be as tedious.

The sheer uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the global pandemic is what makes the recovery so unpredictable. Although early signs of public health response in the form of stringent physical distancing measures seem to be paying off — many countries in Europe who were the hardest hit appear to be turning the corner with initial signs of the flattening of the curve.

Work is only just beginning as pandemics usually come in waves and unless there is a medical miracle in the form of a vaccine in the next couple of months, we should all be prepared to deal with continued physical distancing and sequential lockdowns lasting for the next 12–18 months at least. A lot will also…