Currency War & China’s change of heart towards Cryptos

Trade war worries, Libra launch & currency manipulation blame seem to be pushing PBoC towards creating a CBDC

Faisal Khan
Aug 7 · 5 min read

The Trade war kicked into high gear as the U.S announced new tariffs on Chinese imports to take effect on September 1st. As is the case when risk-off sentiment takes hold in markets — Gold rose, Yen rallied, the global stock of negative-yielding bonds to a record $15 trillion & but more importantly Bitcoin jumped 17% in the two days that followed.

China retaliated by putting a halt on buying U.S agricultural products. Overnight the Chinese Yuan skyrocketed past the psychological level of 7.00 against USD, which it has not seen in a decade. The level has acted as an unofficial ceiling to the pair (USD/CNY — chart below). On the other hand, Americans saw this is a deliberate action from the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) to gain an unfair trade advantage.

The U.S has long accused China of manipulating its currency to make its exports cheaper — a claim that the latter has vehemently denied. Economists have predicted previously that China might play the currency card if it is pushed against the wall. Whether there is any truth to the currency manipulation or not, the latest exchange of unpleasantries between the two biggest economies has added yet another dimension to the trade hostilities — a currency war.

In the backdrop of all these macroeconomic events coupled with some other developments has led to a softening of Chinese stance on Bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies, which have been banned from the country since 2017.

Rise in Bitcoin

Chinese Adoption

Macroeconomic factors

At the end of the day, the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world, which accounts for almost 62% of the total global reserves. China can cause some headache but can’t dislodge the current fiat-based economic system, which is entirely dependent on the Greenback. The only other option would be to bring disruption to USD dominance via and an alternative system — currently evolving in the shape of decentralized cryptocurrencies. This could actually work as people lose faith in the manipulative fiat-based system.

Facebook’s Libra

“[Libra]… could create a scenario under which sovereign currencies would coexist with U.S. dollar-centric digital currencies. But there would be in essence one boss, that is the U.S. dollar and the United States. If so, it would bring a series of economic, financial and even international political consequences.” PBoC director Wang Xin

Keeping this reality in mind, PBoC (Peoples Bank of China) has prioritized the development of a digital Renminbi (Central bank digital currency). The central bank has already got the approval from the State Council to start working on the project. PBoC has also suggested that much attention should be given to other mainstream cryptocurrencies in a statement released August 2nd. The clearest sign yet of how Chinese authorities are coming around on this issue.

The U.S, on the other hand, remains mired in regulatory confusion on what to do with Cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve Board is planning FedNow — interbank real-time payments and settlements service slated to be released in 2023–24. This might be too little, too late as China embarks on a much more ambitious plan to not only issue a CBDC but be more receptive to the idea of integrating Cryptos in the financial ecosystem.


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Technicity

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Faisal Khan

Written by

Content Specialist in Cryptocurrencies | Blockchain | Financial Markets | Technology | Future | Science | Space

Technicity

Empowering you with Technical, Scientific & Financial knowledge

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