Don’t bet against Tech

You may end up being right, but you’re more likely going to be wrong.

Folks laugh at, insult, or dismiss new technology all the time. Clifford Stoll’s greatest contribution to society will be this wonderfully short-sighted piece, written here, on all the things the internet couldn’t and wouldn’t do. Hey even I’ve done it. One thing I’ve realized is, no matter how ill conceived or ridiculous new technology looks to us now you can never completely count it out.

For example look at Bitcoin, Litecoin, & crypto currencies in general. Alan Greenspan called it a bubble. Charles Stross essentially called it evil and malicious. Alex Payne says it’s based on greed and wishful thinking. Maybe they’re right. Maybe the way the technology in in it’s current form isn’t quite ready for primetime. The fact is not many people were jumping for joy when the car first came along. It broke easily, wasn’t fast, and ultimately cost way more than just raising a horse from birth and taking care of it. Then the Model-T came along, gained mass adoption and now decades later we’re in a second car based revolution with Tesla motors. Before the huge success of World of Warcraft there was the craze, praise and, of course, ridicule of Second Life. Bitcoin may end up crashing and burning spectacularly, but the genie’s out of the bottle and the iterations that follow will probably see great success.

What makes the pros and amateurs who contribute to technology great is that they tend to be forward looking. They look at something that’s not always fully formed and see what it could become. And there happens to be an army worldwide of these head in the cloud, unrealistic, individuals who enjoy working to make the future arrive sooner. The real question is do you really want to bet against thousands upon thousands of intelligent, motivated individuals spending time and effort trying to mould a technology into something worthwhile?