The Open-Up/Lock-Down Debate Is About Losing $10 Trillion Dollars Vs. Losing 1 Million Lives
What’s Your Choice Between Losing A Great Deal Of Money Or Losing A Large Number Of Lives?
By David Grace (www.DavidGraceAuthor.com)
The Elephant In The Room
There’s an undercurrent, a sort of secret thread, running beneath the “reopen the schools/don’t reopen the schools” debate that makes it one of those “elephant in the room” sort of issues that politicians don’t want to talk about honestly, or at all.
I’m going to talk about it here without taking sides.
Truths No One Wants To Say Out Loud
This issue is like when your spouse wants to turn the garage into a bedroom with it’s own bath and you don’t.
You know that she is pushing it because she wants to be able to move her mother in there when Mom’s arthritis gets too bad for her to still live alone, and you don’t want to turn the garage into a bedroom for the same reason, but neither of you is willing to say that out loud because once the discussion gets to the “I want my mother to move in/I don’t want your mother to move in” stage all hell will break loose and neither of you wants to have that argument.
Instead you fight a phony war with all kinds of fake arguments — how much it will cost/we can’t afford it, will it make the property taxes go up too much, the contractors will screw us, I don’t want to leave my car out on the driveway where the birds will poop on it, we can make extra money by renting it out, it will be nice to have a guest room for when your brother comes to visit, etc..
So, let’s give ourselves a giant dose of honesty and just say out loud what the debate about re-opening restaurants, schools and businesses is really about.
Money Vs. Deaths
It’s about money versus deaths. It’s about how much more money how many more deaths are worth.
So, here’s the deal — if we open the schools, businesses, shops, bars, and restaurants, we all know the virus is going to spread like wildfire.
If we do that, I would guess that by the time we have mass distribution of a vaccine at least 60% of the population will end up getting the virus. Maybe more, but given Covid’s highly infectious nature I think that’s probably a good minimum ballpark number.
Increasing the rate of infection from the level we have today (probably about 7.35%) to a 60% infection rate we’re looking at roughly an additional one-million Americans dying, an additional 5.2 million people becoming severely ill and an additional 1.65 million people becoming critically ill.
I’ve run out some numbers below. Feel free to Google the CDC and other organizations to check the figures yourself.
So, here’s the question:
Is
- restarting the economy,
- getting the unemployment rate back down to 4%,
- getting the trains and busses and airlines running again,
- saving the hotels, restaurants, bars and retail stores from bankruptcy,
- saving the cities, counties and states from bankruptcy, and
- saving the federal government probably another $5 to $10 trillion dollars in payments
worth an additional 1,000,000 Americans dying who would not otherwise die and having an additional 6,770,000 or so Americans becoming seriously ill or critically ill who would not otherwise be seriously ill or critically ill?
What’s your answer?
The Numbers I’m Using
Here are the numbers I’ve found.
Deaths As Of July 24, 2020
As of July 24, 2020 there were about 144,000 deaths.
If a lockdown is kept in place and that death toll only increases to 200,000 by the time a vaccine is administered that’s an increase of 200,000/144,000 = or about a 140% by the end of the year.
Number Of Infected Americans
As of July 24, 2020 about 5 million Americans had tested positive for Covid-19. If the actual number of people who have been infected is five times that amount, which is a multiplier I’ve heard, then perhaps 25 million Americans have already had the virus out of 340,000,000 or about 7.35%.
Death Rate For All Infected Americans
We’ve had about 144,000 deaths, so if we’ve actually had 25 million people infected that’s a death rate of about .58%. (144,000/25,000,000)
There are about 340 million Americans.
Deaths If We Open Up & 60% Of The Population Is Infected
If 60% of Americans eventually get infected that means 340 million people X 60% infected = 204 million infected Americans
204 million infected Americans X .58% overall death rate = 1,183,000 total deaths up from perhaps 200,000 if we keep the lockdown in place until we have a vaccine or an increase of about 1,000,000 additional deaths from opening up.
For each 10% increase or decrease in the percentage of the population infected (e.g. 60% to 70%) we’ll have approximately 200,000 more or fewer deaths (34,000,000 X .0058).
Severe & Critical Illness Rates
15% of Covid infections are reported as severe and 5% as critical. If these numbers are based on the percentage of confirmed infections and if we assume that the rate of infection in the population at large is five times higher than the number of people who have tested positive for Covid then the actual rate of severe infections is 15%/5 = 3% and for critical infections 5%/5 = 1%
Increase In Severe Illnesses If We Open Up
204,000,000 people infected X 3% severe = about 6,120,000 severe illnesses up from 25,000,000 X 3% = 750,000 X 1.4 = about 1,000,000 as of the end of the year in lockdown or an increase of about 5,120,000 severe illnesses if we open up.
For each 10% increase or decrease in the percentage of the population infected (e.g. 60% to 70%) we’ll have approximately an 1,000,000 more or fewer severe illnesses (34,000,000 X .03).
Increase In Critical Illnesses If We Open Up
204,000,000 people infected X 1% critical = about 2,000,000 critical illnesses up from 25,000,000 X 1% = 250,000 X 1.4 = 350,000 as of the end of the year in lockdown or an increase of about 1,650,000 critical cases if we open up.
For each 10% increase or decrease in the percentage of the population infected (e.g. 60% to 70%) we’ll have approximately 340,000 more or fewer severe illnesses (34,000,000 X .01).
Increase In Total Of Severe & Critical Illnesses
5,120,000 + 1,650,000 = 6,770,000 increase in severe and critical cases if we open up.
What Do You Think We Should Do?
The purpose of this column is to get the real issues and ballpark numbers out in the open so that people can make their own informed and honest decision instead of pretending that the argument about converting the garage is about her wanting the family to have some rental income and you not wanting your car out on the driveway where it will get vandalized by the neighbor kids.
It’s about mom moving in.
It’s about more money versus more illness and death.
Go ahead and choose up sides.
— David Grace (www.DavidGraceAuthor.com)
