In March 2015, the Syrian civil war, rightly declared by the United Nations as the “worst humanitarian disaster since the Cold War,” entered its fifth year. Tragically, despite all the bloodshed and destruction, the conflict is no closer to a resolution today than it was when the revolution began in the spring of 2011. If anything, the repression of the initially peaceful political protests initiated a cycle of violence that has progressively escalated, resulting in a fully fledged internal war whose impact is felt far and wide.

Today, a number of factors make the conflict intractable. Here are three reasons why there is currently no end in sight — followed by three ways the international community might help de-escalate conflict.

1. It’s a zero-sum game.

The revolution began around issues of social inequality and the desire for freedom from fear and repression. The protesters called for the Syrian regime and its ruler, Bashar al-Assad, to undertake deep political and economic reforms. Spurred by a cycle of violent repression by the Syrian government, the focus of the protests quickly became to overthrow the regime. As the confrontation became violent and militarized, a zero-sum game dynamic emerged. Today, while most of the warring parties are exhausted, they also believe they have no alternative to war, that the only possible conclusion is either victory or death.

Even worse, this zero-sum calculation has come to be framed in sectarian terms. The main sectarian communities in Syria, including the Sunni Arab majority and the Alawite, Ismaili, Druze and Christian minorities (with Syrian Kurds mostly struggling for their own territory in the north of the country), have all to various degrees become de facto affiliated with either the pro- or anti-regime forces. Thus, most communities have come to see Bashar al-Assad’s fate as deeply connected to their own future place in Syria. As war continues and the numbers of victims rise on both sides, the feelings of fighting for survival and mutual distrust are reinforced, greatly lowering the chances for a successful political settlement.

2. It’s not up to just Syrians.

The Syrian civil war was never just about Syria. From the beginning, regional and international powers intervened in the conflict by supporting the different warring parties. Syria, just like Yemen, is a front of the Saudi-Iranian proxy war for regional hegemony. Iran and Saudi Arabia remain heavily invested in supporting and opposing the Assad regime, respectively. As local parties become more and more dependent on foreign assistance to carry on their struggle over time, they also partly lose control over the war and its dynamics.

Given the high level of foreign interest and investment in Syria, the conflict can’t be resolved without the involvement of both the main Syrian parties and their external backers. Just as importantly, the rise of mainly foreign jihadist groups like the “Islamic State” (ISIS) have exacerbated the situation by both wresting further decision-making power away from Syrian actors and by establishing itself as a radical “spoiling” force that would hinder any negotiated political agreement.

3. There are too many players on the chessboard.

The conflict in Syria has grown more complex as the number of warring parties has increased, making it extremely difficult to consider striking a comprehensive political agreement that would keep all parties on board. The anti-Assad opposition remains deeply fragmented and, overall, they’ve been as busy fighting each other — politically or militarily — as struggling against the regime. This trend has exponentially worsened with the rise of jihadist organizations like Jabhat al-Nusra — currently the Syrian Al-Qaeda front — and, more recently, ISIS. Both groups regularly fight other opposition forces as well as the Syrian state. Scarcity in weapons and funds are fueling additional conflict between different rebel factions.

Yet a clear victory on the battlefield and one party gaining control over Syria is no more likely than a negotiated political deal. As more actors become involved, one constant factor remains: no single group or faction has the military strength to be able to simultaneously defeat all its adversaries and declare military victory. The situation could change if the anti-Assad forces were able to wage a coordinated campaign and were to receive sustained financial and military external assistance. But, given the deeply fragmented state of the opposition and the general reluctance of the international community, this seems unlikely.

So how do we reverse the trend?

What hope is there for this tragic situation? The international community must play a role in shifting the conflict from intractable to solvable, and support the stabilization of Syria. To do this, its approach needs to go well beyond the current focus on militarily downgrading and defeating ISIS and keeping the conflict from spreading to Syria’s neighboring countries — a strategy that has arguably already failed.

1. Create new stakes beyond war — today.

Syria’s economy, infrastructure and very own social fabric have been destroyed. The country functions as a war economy, and fighting can be seen as one of the few options available to generate income. Within the country, there are over 7 million people who have been internally displaced and over 12 million people who need basic humanitarian aid to survive. Current international funding and resources fall short of covering Syria’s enormous humanitarian needs — including basic food assistance — and it must be increased. What’s more, the international community’s priority needs to be to work on ensuring access for humanitarian aid workers, as they cannot reach parts of the Syrian population, whether due to the Syrian regime’s obstruction or ISIS’s extensive control.

Assisting the civilian population and sustaining local actors working to slowly rebuild their country and society is key to both preventing further destabilization and laying the basis for the “day after.” The international community now needs to support local groups, especially those hailing from civil society, to work on addressing such vital issues as economic development, power-sharing arrangements and transitional justice.

2. Beyond the proxy war: take actions to de-escalate.

The current international approach to reversing the negative spiral is to progressively freeze areas of conflict — negotiating local ceasefires so that supplies can be delivered to local areas and violence can halt. This has its merits, but it can only work if no warring party relies on such ceasefires to improve its position on the ground. Pursuing local ceasefires needs to be matched by active attempts by the international community to stop external actors from continuing to fuel the conflict. First and foremost, this requires that those bankrolling the Syrian regime and shielding it from international sanctions are addressed.

3. Simplify the game: tackle spoilers.

With no clear military victory in sight, a political arrangement is still the best — albeit extremely complex — bet to see an end to the war. Obtaining such a deal will be a long and tortuous process that inevitably requires the participation of the main regional actors involved. The international community can sustain these efforts by both making it harder for the Syrian regime to sustain its war efforts and by its ongoing efforts to weaken ISIS, which would be an obvious spoiler of any future political deal. But this isn’t enough: only a stronger, non-jihadist Syrian opposition can ultimately wrestle control and support away from radical groups like ISIS and al-Nusra and sit at the negotiating table. Domestic efforts to bolster unity amidst rebel factions and to create anti-ISIS alliances should be both encouraged and supported.

The Syrian civil war is a humanitarian tragedy of colossal proportions with devastating and destabilizing regional effects. It is in the international community’s interest to work towards reversing these dynamics and begin to de-escalate the conflict. At stake is not just the future of Syria, but that of the entire Levant region.

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