Election day is around the corner

1. On Sunday, general elections will take place in Mexico. More than 20,000 positions will be up for grabs, including the President and members of both chambers of the Federal Congress. Additionally, nine governors and thousands of mayors and municipal offices.

The elephant in the room

2. Mexico’s party system is facing a moment of acute change since Andrés Manuel López Obrador won the 2018 presidential election in a landslide. His charismatic leadership has reshaped the political landscape. MORENA, a party less than a decade old, is now the uncontested dominating force in almost every state of the country. But MORENA’s bonding agent is AMLO himself, and his successors will struggle to balance the many internal forces in such a broad coalition.

3. At the institutional level, AMLO has tried to reverse decades of power dispersion in the form of autonomous bodies to consolidate the power in the presidency. He has only been partially successful. Mexico’s still nascent democracy has, despite turmoil, maintained most of its institutional architecture.

4. Economically, Mexico is roughly equally attractive as it was before this administration. Growth is mediocre, but the economy is stable and the fiscal deficit remains well within acceptable standards. Nearshoring is yet to materialise fully, but Mexico’s competitive advantages are structural and have not changed significantly with this government.

5. This electoral period has been marked by escalating political violence. Hundreds of candidates from all parties have been attacked, killed or intimidated, and many have resigned in fear. This vacuum of representation will probably derive into further infiltration of organised crime into political institutions.

The presidential contest

6. Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of the Morena party coalition is, of course, the president’s favourite. She is running as the candidate of continuity, who will cement AMLO’s legacy. The question is if that will indeed be the case, and to what extent. In contrast to AMLO, Sheinbaum is technically and policy savvyrather than a political mastermind. While staying very close to AMLO will be key to appease the hardline Obradoristas, she has her own views and priorities. And we cannot yet account for the effect that holding the power of the presidential office will have on her.

7. Xóchitl Galvez, the opposition candidate has presented herself as a citizen candidate but she is endorsed by the legacy political parties in the country (PRI, PAN and PRD). Gálvez is not a party member but she has always been associated with the PAN. The legacy parties hoped that her folksy personality, sort of a business-friendly AMLO, and her independence would allow them to dodge their ignominy. As for Gálvez, it is unclear what she really believes in, as she sometimes seems very liberal and simultaneously quite conservative. She once defined herself as a Trotskyist and celebrated Milei in only a few hours. She is in a very difficult position where she must appease the parties that nominated her, while attracting those voters that are disappointed in MORENA but dislike the opposition parties equally.

8. Jorge Álvarez Maynez is the third candidate, from Movimiento Ciudadano (MC). He has no real chance of winning but his numbers have improved significantly since the beginning of the campaign. His candidacy certainly hurt the framing of a battle between good and evil that the leading coalitions wanted to adopt. MC has been very successful at growing its base, avoiding direct conflict, being bold regarding policy proposals, and this election will definitely allow them to consolidate their position in a time of rearticulation of the party system.

Congress and state/local elections

9. A Sheinbaum triumph is already discounted by the markets and most analysts. But it is in Congress where the real battle is being held. Polls suggest that MORENA will maintain a simple majority in both chambers, but the opposition is hopeful that they will gain enough seats to avoid sweeping constitutional reforms.

10. It is in the state and local elections where MORENA’s evolution towards becoming, or not, a hegemonic party across the country is being decided.This election could also start to show the erosion of its popularity by allowing the opposition to regain some previously lost territories.

Our guess and what’s next

11. On Sunday night, Claudia Sheinbaum will be declared winner with a 10–14 point difference. Xóchitl Gálvez and the opposition parties will cry foul, protesting against AMLO’s interference in the election, but will eventually concede. Álvarez Maynez will celebrate the recognition of Movimiento Ciudadano as an invigorated national political force.

12. A new Congress will emerge with a MORENA simple majority but without the necessary seats to carry out its sweeping constitutional reform agenda. Sheinbaum would have of course preferred a stronger majority but a divided Congress, and the need to negotiate with the opposition will provide hew with the arguments to take some distance from AMLO’s agenda.

13. The governor races of Mexico City, Jalisco, Veracruz, Yucatán, Morelos and Guanajuato are tighter than MORENA predicted. Being unable to turn Jalisco, Yucatán and Guanajuato was expected, but losing Veracruz or Mexico City could only be considered a failure, if not a catastrophe for the ruling coalition.

14. MORENA’s unity and future in the aftermath of the election could substantially change with many leaders and operators out of a job, feeling aggrieved by the cupular agreements that jeopardised elections that the Movement could have won with different candidates.

15. On 3 June, Sheinbaum will start the long road towards developing her own leadership whilst keeping the AMLO ideologues content:

• She will double down on social programmes, infrastructure development and fiscal austerity. Sooner rather than later, one of those three will have to give.
• On security, expect roughly the same discourse as AMLO but in practice, there will be a more technical, organised approach.
• She will differ significantly on energy and environmental policy due to her personal interest on the topic and her willingness to decide upon these. Yet, she will have to tread carefully to avoid alienating those that still see in PEMEX and CFE the symbols of Mexican sovereignty.

16. The US election will add a lot of noise to the transition, especially if Trump is elected. But the issues — security, migration, nearshoring, water scarcity and distribution — are structural and the policies will largely remain the same.

By Mauricio Castañeda & Gonzalo Escribano