Legislative agenda: the last stand
1. 2023’s first period of sessions of the Mexican Congress started on February 1st and will last until April 30th. In the Mexican political system, this period is de facto the last one where key reforms and new laws can be negotiated and approved. Some of the main items are:
Plan B
2. Last year AMLO failed to build a coalition around a constitutional reform that would have restructured the National Electoral Institute (INE) and the political system as a whole. As a result, he presented the so-called plan B electoral reform in November — arguing that the Institute is too expensive. The President of the INE, Lorenzo Córdoba and his allies have warned that if passed the plan would hurt the institute’s ability to organize free and fair elections. The proposal seeks to eliminate key areas that allow the institute to operate on the ground and across the territory, and reshape its managerial structure in a way that could benefit AMLO if he gets enough loyal councilors in its governing board.
3. Plan B does not require constitutional amendments. The President’s coalition has the numbers to pass it swiftly and should have happened before the end of last year’s second period of sessions. But some Senators from AMLO’s coalition are skeptical about the reform as it would give MORENA too much leverage, at a time in which loyalties are fragile. The President has sent clear messages to the skeptics: opposing his plan B will not be forgiven when MORENA and its allies decide next year’s candidacies for office.
INE’s councilors and appointments to other autonomous bodies
4. Four of the eleven members of the INE’s general council will finish their mandates in March, including the head of the institute, Lorenzo Córdova. A year ahead of the election and in the context of the plan B discussion, the negotiation to designate the new members will prove difficult. AMLO and his allies are bullyish about getting loyalists designated. The opposition will seek to appoint independent scholars and experts. If AMLO’s candidates get elected and the plan B moves forward as his, his allies would effectively lead the INE ahead of next year’s election.
5. Appointments of commissioners to several autonomous institutes, including the Energy Regulatory Commission, the Hydrocarbons National Commission and the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Personal Data Protection remain pending. Given MORENA’s commanding majority, we expect AMLO will be able to appoint loyalists to these seats. Throughout his mandate, AMLO has sought to control autonomous bodies to further strengthen his grip over Mexico’s political system.
Reform to the general law of aviation and airports
6. In December, AMLO sent a bill to reform Mexico’s airspace and airports regulation. The bill would allow foreign airlines to carry passengers between two Mexican cities before returning to the airline’s origin country. Its stated intention is to encourage competition and promote the use of the International Airport Felipe Ángeles (AIFA), which has failed to gain traction on its own.
7. The Mexican industry, companies and unions oppose the reform. They argue that it would generate unfair competition and risk the survival of national airlines at a time in which they are already struggling financially. The bill is a power play by AMLO that will likely be decided away from Congress through an agreement between Mexican airlines and the President with new traffic directed to the AIFA.
Cybersecurity law
8. Last year, the leak of millions of government documents orchestrated by the hacktivist group “Guacamaya” exposed the regulatory and institutional weakness of Mexico’s cyberspace. The Science and Technology Committee in the Lower House has taken upon itself to draft a bill that would force the executive to produce a coherent cybersecurity policy at the national level.
9. Nobody denies the need of a national cybersecurity policy and legal framework. Yet reaching an agreement in the depth and length of the proposed bill has been incredibly complicated. In the past decade, there have been at least a dozen attempts to legislate on cybersecurity at the national level for the past decade. The current effort carries cross-party support, but its success depends on the willingness of Mexico’s security forces to endorse any reform that would necessarily foster greater accountability, transparency and civilian oversight.
Science and Technology law
10. The Law on Science and Technology was introduced by Morena in September 2021 with the support of the unpopular head of National Commission of Science and Technology (CONACYT) María Elena Álvarez-Buylla. The academic community is generally mixed about the proposal, but many have expressed concern over the potential political interference in the selection of scientific projects and researchers. Meanwhile, civil society organizations worry about the lack of explicit mechanisms for public participation in the development of science policy.
Cannabis
11. The regulation of the cannabis economy has been in the agenda of many in Morena for the last few years, but the inability to make any advances in the matter can only be explained by the President’s conservative opinion on the issue. This will be the last opportunity in which the matter has a chance to advance in the legislative branch but we are skeptical of its chances.
COMMENT
12. While legislative activity will not completely shut down after this ordinary session, we do expect a noticeable slowdown after the summer as all issues will become guided by electoral politics and next year’s presidential election. After this session, expect little focus on legislative matters from lawmakers and forget about reforms or new laws requiring constitutional amendments or multipartisan agreement.
13. We believe the plan B will likely pass and live to die another day (in the courts). The result of this discussion is important for Mexico’s long-term democracy.
14. Discussions over regulation of the Mexican airspace are a classic example of a strong executive using its muscle to force stakeholders to the negotiation table. Cybersecurity reform will most likely get lost in the noise and could remain pending for the foreseeable future. Even if regulation were approved, it would likely be little more than a cosmetic fix.
