March Update

INE update: Plan-B and new board members

1. March was marked by the discussion of the electoral reform, the so-called Plan-B, and the replacement of four members of the National Electoral Institute (INE) governing board which included the Institute’s new president. As predicted here, AMLO’s Plan-B was approved by Congress at the beginning of the month, and several parts of it were suspended shortly after by the Supreme Court.
2. The renewal of the INE’s board dominated the congressional agenda. Parliamentary groups failed to come to an agreement about the four new board members among the technically vetted candidates. As the law provides, the selection process was left to luck by way of a raffle.
3. Two new members of the board, including the new Chair, Guadalupe Taddei, have close links to figures in the current administration or MORENA, AMLO’s party. However, Taddei certainly has the technical credentials and experience to carry out the job, as the former chair of the state of Sonora electoral institute. The role of Taddei, the board’s Chair, carries weight on administrative and budgetary decisions of the electoral authority, but her vote has as much value as the vote of the other board members.
4. It is difficult to predict how much AMLO or MORENA will benefit from Taddei’s chairwomanship but at the very least we can expect a less vocal and confrontative INE and a move towards finding agreements about austerity, among other issues.

US-Mexico bilateral relation

5. The disappearance of four American citizens in Matamoros, Tamaulipas (northeastern MX), triggered a large joint operation with Mexican and American forces. Two of them were found alive days later, whilst the other two were killed by their kidnappers. The incident led to a confrontation between the Mexican and US governments, as well as some incendiary statements from Republican lawmakers.

6. Whilst the confrontation has scaled down of late, Republicans continue to exploit the narrative that Mexico is controlled by drug cartels and call for US military intervention in Mexican soil. During a hearing back in DC, Republican representatives pushed Secretary of State Antony Blinken to agree with the idea that parts of Mexico are controlled by organized crime and not by the Mexican State. The Mexican government in turn was happy to rally around the flag against the perceived foreign threat. But it’s a dangerous game to be playing on both sides of the border, particularly as the narrative can only escalate in the months to come due to the electoral cycle in the two countries.

Migrants killed in fire

7. 40 people were killed in a fire at a federal detention center for migrants, 23 remain hospitalized. The fire was allegedly started by detainees on 27 March as a protest for inhumane living conditions, but video footage shows how immigration officials had no intention to save the migrants’ lives. The incident brought serious questions on the National Migration Institute’s treatment of migrants from the caribbean, central and south america who are detained in Mexico whilst they wait for entry into the US.

8. The “Remain in Mexico” policy was negotiated with the Trump administration as a way for Mexico to assist the US in the control of its borders. In this way, migration control has become a bargaining chip for other issues such as ongoing trade disputes and bilateral security cooperation. After an initially dismissive reaction, and petty statement from the Minister of the Interior, the federal government is now trying to clean up the mess, yet no high-level officials have been indicted or removed.

Zocalo officialist demonstration

9. On 18 March, AMLO called for a demonstration in Mexico City’s main plaza, the Zocalo. Ostensibly to commemorate the 1938 expropriation of Mexico’s oil industry, the massive act was a show of force to the opposition parties and civil society organizations who organized a massive demonstration two weeks before against the President’s electoral policy. Official figures estimated over half a million people attended, in a stark reminder of the officialism’s mobilization power.

Osorio Chong

10. Senator Miguel Angel Osorio Chong was removed as the PRI’s whip in the upper chamber. Once the all-powerful Minister of the Interior during the Peña Nieto administration, and a presidential hopeful, Osorio Chong was fundamental in maintaining the opposition’s block unity against some of AMLO’s sweeping constitutional reforms. The move was orchestrated by the PRI’s national leader, Alejandro “Alito” Moreno, as part of an ongoing battle to hold onto the remaining scraps of power still in the PRI’s control. Many argue that it is nothing but a continuation of the PRI’s descent into political irrelevance, but the jury is still out on that one.

State elections

11. Electoral campaigns for the governorships of Coahuila and Estado de Mexico started this past weekend. These contests will dominate the public discussion over the coming months as they are considered the last proxy battles before the presidential race of 2024. Expect this month an ad-hoc piece on these elections and what they mean for the 2024 race.

COMMENT

12. Dust will settle on the confrontation between the President and the INE for the next few months, as a political way out will be likely achieved. The damage to Mexico’s democracy will have to be evaluated afterwards. As the presidential race approaches, we will see rhetoric inflame and even more nationalism in AMLO’s discourse. It won’t benefit the US-Mexico bilateral relation, as Republicans back in the US will play the same game. Petty and power politics will dominate the cycle, at least until candidates and coalitions are defined by the parties (and AMLO).

Authors:

Mauricio Castañeda & Gonzalo Escribano